Member Info for daft63

It is indeed a guessing game, full of twists and turns. https://energyegypt.net/tag/gupco/ is of note.
BP has said its interests lay in gas in Egypt, maybe part payment involves SD. Who knows until we are told. But Gupco is up there https://egyptoil-gas.com/news/gupco-crude-production-hits-71000-bd-in-fy-201718/.

No leaks so nobody can point fingers. Will wait to hear from PW on terms/benefits/costs. Circle deal was great, this could equal or better it. 4 players control the vote so PW only has to sell it to them. Serica was suspended for 9 days so not a great length of time to wait. SDX has been my choice share, its been a hard ride recently, but for those of us who waited, well done and this could be a move up the table. Mr B time for a biscuit upgrade?

Quality work SH. George Ensor at R & M UK Micro Cap Investment is the guy who manages the fund holding SDX. I am still of the belief that its a mistake made by someone who read 7.2m shares as 7.2 %, and why would SDX not be shouting out if in a 3 month period somebody basically doubled their position. Otherwise we have to believe that a lot of regulations were breached. Also looking back at charts for price and volume, I see no logic to any trading theory that makes sense. Atb.

I wasnt aiming at you, you know I value your posts. Just trying to calm the pointing fingers, the general tone these last few days is fuelled by frustration, talk of cheap takeovers, cheap trades are baseless. A TR 1 was released that should have been good news, but got poor reception? Lets not talk our own share down, or always think the worst of people, too much of that crap in the real world. Again aimed at no one person. Have a good weekend all, Mr B Im on homemade Coffee Reniors with Brandy Coffee

So to sum up, theres no mates rates, dodgy deals, non transparency, failure to report or any other kind of crap going on.
Yes some large trades have passed through, but perhaps they would otherwise have dropped the price or lingered on for weeks. R and M have increased their position, whilst perhaps one of the smaller holders has bailed ( under 3% requires no notice ). SDX is not like most AIM shares, so lets stop thinking it may act like some of the more nefarious ones out there. Most here have done their homework and found it to be a soundly managed company with great prospects. STAY CALM even when others..............

No problem, tbh I wont even read them.

Even some of your posts are quoting 7.2%. Not 7.2m shares.

On the basis that the simplest solution is usually correct, try this. SDX have been totally correct and lawabiding, as have R and M, and surprise surprise its the Edison note thats wrong, perhaps it should read 7.2m shares. Presto.

Tigris is right, no one is getting SDX cheap, 2 major players can stop any attempt. And what is occuring with the trades is not sinister or bent, if there is a known purchaser who declares an interest for a large buy at not more than a certain price, then it will try to be filled. I have even managed to do it myself when trade is slow by offering to take a lump at below the range, give them a week and it might get filled, especially if there is a selller. Its normal practice to try to get the best price available, its not corrupt, or part of a big swindle, just good trading. Just bide your time and calm the nerves, its a good sign!

Quality posts , I agree with you all, who knows when or where, SH analysis is quality, Mr B may be accurate, but I see recent volume has not dropped the SP, it looks like a buyers market until supply fades. 57p is 3x IPO cost, which may be a trigger for some to move on to pastures new, stagnant sp may be another, as is the case with some PIs, the position taking at present is only possible because of a supply, if it runs dry then what?
3D is ongoing in Morocco, it may reveal treasures, Novs 3rd Qtr figures should show ramps in production rates and incomes, its all in the mix as we connect and sell. Its all to do with risk, reward, timeframe, which are personal to each of us, and IIs, but when even Edison(arghh!) see value its a bargain. Im going nowhere, just like the SP, but it will jump before I do. Nobody knows when, but most concur it will, not a bad place to be. Atb

70.6 % accounted for if you go on Edison figures, but who really knows, the bottom line of the SDX page says that each percentage point crossed above 3% requires notification, as you know, these rules have been slack at times, its difficult to tell. I wonder if at times we apply Canadian rules eg 20%max, and how they may differ..

Well noticed SH, cracking 1st post.

I am dubious as to the accuracy of any of these, eg the one stating AXA holds 3 accounts, looks like the largest is close to the sum of the other 2. Also if Mr M has sold down through 4%, where was the rns? We are supposed to be informed of each percentage point crossed over 3. Seems the rules are slack, when sometimes we find out months later.

All is not as it seems, if you read the sdx webpage AXA held a position at the end of March, so maybe Im wrong. Sorry!

Seeing Axa taking a position at this level should give a boost!

Whilst its easy to see the genuine quality of this company, and be amazed at how its SP fails to reflect value, Shakeys posts act as a realistic riptide, adding clarity to market responses, I, along with many others, admire his accuracy and his viewpoint. What may appear obvious to some, is not so crystal to the rest of us, Shakey helps clear the mist of optimism, and I appreciate and am grateful for his valued input.

Might perk things up a little.

It is truly sad that we are 50% behind Edison, who are behind the curve from getting up in the morning. They should base their head office on Baker Island!

New KOTB, I totally agree, just thought Id break it down so it seems clearer as to what is where. A couple of big scoops in Morocco changes the whole picture when known demand lays at 52mmcfd, find the gas to supply that demand and kerching. SD also offers great scope for growth, and as you say we have plenty to exploit without needing to do any deals, the wise move would be to exploit our assets to the maximum, build cash to be able to take advantage in any downturn, when others may have accrued debt not sustainable in a falling market. But thats all in the future, first we need interest and volume so that we achieve a realistic valuation for where we are at now

Where does 8000bopd come from in the next 4 months, lets break it down.

Morocco at 10mmcfd gives 7500mmcfd = 1293bopd.

South Disouq comes in two parts. 25% Cost recovery 75% Production. We are entitled to 55% of Cost recovery, and about 26% of Production, which equates at 50mmcfd to:
1. Cost recovery 12500000cfd x 0.55 (WI) ÷ 5800 = 1185bopd.
2. Production 37500000cfd x 0.26 ÷5800 = 1681bopd.

NW Gemsa at approx 2500bopd

Meseda at approx 1400bopd.

Thats my best extrapolation based on what info is available right now, and trying to approximate the breakdown of each field allowing for wells coming online as others deplete, its a rough guess so dont shoot the messenger.

Morocco gives approx $26.5m pa after opex on $10.5/mmcf. South Disouq is complex but based on $2.65/mcf gives about $13m pa after opex. Again its a calculated guess! NW Gemsa parts with approx $21m pa based on $75 brent and Meseda donates approx $19.9m pa based on $75 brent. So roughly $80 m pa by year end, with Morocco set to increase as factories come into play through the year. Pipeline Capacity would add approx $40m pa to this figure. South Disouq is the big variable, but success would be cashed in much quicker with bolt ons added to the infrastructure being put in place right now. All just for info, dont hold me to it.