Member Info for daft63

Breakdown of Capex 2019 outstanding, as per Corp Presentation Sept 26th 2019, from SDX website,
SD : $0.3m , Mesada : $1.3m , NWG : $0.8m, S.Ram $0.3m, Morocco : $9m of which $5m is due 2019, $4m 2020.

Its listed under each asset, capex total , ytd paid and outstanding, just added them up.

According to the Corp Presentation of Sept 19, there remains approx $11.7m of 2019 Capex, with $4m payable next year. That leaves $7.7m to be paid in 2019 which would be covered by Morocco income 2H19.....Thats not to say thats how it will show on any 1 set of figures because we all know thats not how it works, but reading too much into 1 set of figures is misleading yourselves.
Our Ceos fiscal prudence is why we still exist, have developed a new field to first gas and remain debt free, it is an outstanding achievement.

Also if you were a decent sized buyer at recent lows, cashing in on your returns now not only gives rewards, but helps to drive down the sp by triggering those who are less sure, allowing buyback at a lower price. Combine this with what I described below and its easy to believe any conspiracy, when really its just what happens on each and every share, with increased demand its effects are dampened.

One of the unknown factors is Cfds, and the link between those who provide such options and the brokers, there is a reason why all the companies offering cfds state the % of retail traders who lose money, usually 65-75%. Its easy to see that 3/4 holders of a stock like sdx, with just 2/3m shares each can manipulate the sp at will to suit their needs at the time. During periods of demand this ability is decreased, I believe our major holders are here to stay awaiting the rewards of dividends, evidenced by their stability at all SPs of the past.

The pipeline capacity is 24mmcfd but can increase to 40mmcfd with compression, we are producing at 25% capacity at present, which generates circa $16m profits for SDX, so even small increases in customer uptake can have significant rewards.

It would only take a 3/4 mcf/d increase in uptake to offset the loss of NW Gemsa.

https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2018/08/251561/fhe-group-circuit-board-plant-morocco-kenitra/amp/

https://www.just-auto.com/news/morocco-looks-to-1m-pa-production-by-2022-amica_id190035.aspx

Thanks very much for the debrief, a little clarity has emerged from the fog. Cheers.

I have 2 questions I consider need an answer, and would appreciate if someone could ask them as I'm unable to be free. If possible to get a response please post on here.
1. What is the max capacity of the CPF at SD.

2. Our Morocco Country Manager Mr Baumgardner, once spoke of 52mmcfd demand in Morocco on a company video, is this demand real, and what are the companies anticipated upside estimates in the short/medium term?
Thanks in advance.

Every exploration outfit dreams of achieving this goal, most fail to get even close to this point, 3D, exploration, all the permits and red tape, baksheesh, the time alone, plus the costs, the debts accrued. At roughly $1m net a month its a welcome addition, but make no mistake the achievement and its potential to grow quickly, all self funded, are what stand alone here.

It also shows the significance of SDXs achievement at SD, so hard for any small outfit to get all the way to 1st gas, the obstacles of red tape, time and cost take a toll most cant survive. Also shows the bargain our Circle deal has proved to be.

And that $90m is net after capex and opex.

15bcf equates to $90m, our Mcap is $50. But dont worry, your not alone.

We do know that certain IIs are funds, and as people divest or invest these funds will balance their portfolios, it could be that simple. With volume so low at present, these stand out, but if demand returns they would be lost in the mist of trades.

At $9.3m pa - capex and opex, and dependant upon Poo, we are losing an old field which has during its time subsidised the development of SD, and with the state responsible for all run down costs and liabilities. Its possible that a couple of good results at Mesada, a new and developing field, could help offset a little of the loss. If the CPF capacity at SD allows for growth then future finds will connect seamlessly, that is the one fact, cpf capacity, still in the wind. We know the export line has room for 140mmcf/d.
Also I cant see Morocco as flat, I believe that if we have proven gas then demand is there, do you remember the interview with (sorry in advance) PW saying that all sales contracts were made by ONHYM, not SDX, I think this ensures that all 5yr contracts can be honoured. I also remember Baumgardner saying in a video that demand could be 52mmcf/d, and he still has a job. If the gas is found I suspect so will the customers. It could always be bottled!

Within a few weeks we will become a fixed price gas company, that will be attractive to those nervous of a fragile POO.

I have long since stopped trying to guess the SP here, we are at the same price as when we IPO'd in May16, the increase is in shares, up 2.6 x. But we have grown in that time, Morocco brings in more p.a. than our Mcap was back then, as do our 2 oilies, and SD has had more investment than our Mcap is now. I take heart that
1: our top 5 holders never lost faith, even at 3x this price,
2: most aim oilers wouldnt have made it this far.

Aim is mostly about fashion and trends, stupid values on false gold dreams of Ceo's lost in space. SDX is not one of those, as Shakey points out, a little interest will move this fast, demand for just 2% shares could double the SP, the goons will start posting here again, and away we go again!

Yesterday some people could not buy, 380k shares sold in 1 hour did not change the price, 2k shares this morning does, not sure whats going on, join the club.

The bottom line of page 16 , 100bcf, now thats a game changer, not just for sdx but for ONHYM.