Member Info for daft63

50,000mcf/d x 365 x 2.55 x .27 = $12.565m pa. 89bcf is 5 years of steady fixed income. 5 years gives circa $62.5m or £ 48m total. No value given to infrastructure in place.

South Disouq now covers the Mcap at this SP on its own.

We are now bringing in circa $4m a month, and continue to do so for as long as NWG is viable, approx $32m pa is now from fixed income. Seasons greetings to all.

I respect your opinions, now Ive shown the way I read it, please advise me on where Im getting it so wrong.

Income from SD in 2020 should be approx $13m inc condensates, minus $2.9m AR offset, leaving $10m. If Mesada 2020 capex is same as this year that leaves $7m to cover 3 drills at SD planned for 2020.

As per the presentation, total capex remaining for 19 is $9.2m, $10m if you include the $0.8m due in 20 for Morocco. We had $13m in cash at the end of sept, plus got $2m cash from receivables post period end. $15m in total minus the $10m capex gives $5m plus money earned Q4 at circa $8.6 gives approx $13.6m cash year end 19.
Now assume SD brings no money in in 2020 due to Capex and offset for development . Morocco nets approx $19m in 2020 at 7mmcfd, mesada approx $8.5m , with any NWG a bonus. Admitting extra Capex at Morocco/Mesada is not included, nor does any 1 set of figures show the true picture.

Thanks Cosmoss, well it appears that if we stick to plan, even with no increases, we should have a minimum of $40m cash in 12 months time. With no evidence of a so called bid, it does indicate towards a patience for dividends, a play many have long suspected. Even with no increases in production rates, and the loss of NWG, SDX could fund generous rewards, what SP for 8-10p a year. No need for any new acquisitions, just self fund the ongoing development of our 3 main assets and reap the benefits. MR is a money man and that idea must have appeal, 3 years of such would put most big holders into clear profit, fine return for patience and loyalty. Investing old school.

Difficult one this. On the one hand, why wait till the forecast is so rosy? 3 months ago any bidder could have made a move at record lows, it was an ideal moment to swoop, no one did. Even though the future was predictable, progress was on time/budget, no one took advantage, no TR1s. If they had done at those record lows, they couldve picked this up for circa $50m. I predict that in 18 months time, if all goes to plan, we may have that much in cash. That does mean that someone could see us as a target, even at this SP, a bid of 70m may work, but it may not! Who knows?

The week of August 11-18 was a classsic, a p & d from historic lows, 7.24m shares traded, manipulated because of poor demand, nervous PIs, and a slackness in the freefloat. It is noteworthy that the sum of last weeks and this weeks trades, 3.45m and 3.82m exactly account for that week in Aug. I believe that the slack has just been put in tension, whether by one or multiple players. Sell on news is a general cry on Aim, usually to allow a buyback at cheaper rates, it appears that a buyer/s took advantage of that adage and sucked up the sales of those who may otherwise have used a known news day for their own gains. That was a lot of sells on a good news day. Who knows, but time.

https://uk.investing.com/equities/sea-dragon-energy-inc-historical-data

https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/market/6683579/SDX-Energy-quarterly-profit-falls-on-lower-production-prices

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/907618/sdx-energy-boasts-better-than-expected-ramp-up-at-south-disouq-907618.html

At 50mmcfd SD will generate approx $11m pa net profits, roughly what NWG makes at $65 POO. But SD is fixed price, as is Morocco making for more stable incomes. And from this point on every month of income from NWG I consider a bonus, to put towards drilling Capex at SD. The outlook here now is very good, Morocco self funds all Capex requirements in the immediate future, with other incomes building cash reserves. We have undergone some major outlays over the last 2 years, and still have survived thanks to MR.

2020 will be the year where our capex reduces whilst our incomes improve, even if we lose NW Gemsa, at 7mmcfd Morocco will churn $19m our way, with even more possible, SD income covers any loss of NWG, and with 3 wells planned Capex will be approx $4-5m net to Sdx at SD in 2020. Availability of funds should grow from this point on, raising the ability to pay a divi!

Alls well here.

Yeah, I got that, I just posted the info to show the existing pipeline and its proximity to LM. The proposed lng terminal and pipeline demonstrate Moroccan demands for gas, if it gets the go ahead. In the meantime, Sdx need to push hard on exploration activities, to fulfil customer needs. LM could be important to us.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maghreb%E2%80%93Europe_Gas_Pipeline

All you need to know, ongoing for 25 years.

https://www.chariotoilandgas.com/operations-overview/morocco/#morocco

This offshore discovery Anchois 1 is directly west of Lalla Mimouna, with chariot claiming 307bcf potential.

It may refer to a royalties payment on any further incomes.

As economically redundant as it may be to SDX, Egyptian State would be getting the full cut of any remaining output, probably worthwhile to them to get all remaining dregs.

Owt's better than now't.

Also of note is the 2nd line of page 12, refering to NWG, quote "maximise value on exit".