Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Apologies that I haven’t contributed in quite a while. It gets so toxic in here at times and I’m afraid I don’t have the thick skin required to enter into heated debate any more.
For what it’s worth, my take on the last operational update is that Mike Buck has finally grown a set and has had enough of the low level bureaucracy that has hindered our progress on block XX. Taken it all the way to the deputy prime minister, the prime minister and the president.
I particularly enjoyed the confidence in stating “ The approval means that the land use agreement can now be prepared and signed by the District authorities and by the Company and it will allow our planned operational activities to go ahead.”
Thank feck, it’s been soooo long. What a bloody backward country this is.
Mike Buck is a geologist. He has found oil which is great but I become less confident in his management of this company as time moves on. He is most definitely not a conman, he just appears to not have the arrogance to take the bull by the horns and make things happen.
It is only due to the fact that the man has invested heavily with his own money that I continue to remain a loyal and patient investor in this company.
He does have close to 11 million shares at an average of over 3p per share so I remain invested. Why would a CEO buy so many shares at such a cost if the investment wasn’t worthwhile. It’s either worth it or he is an idiot. I’m going with worth it.
Posted this in May but is more relevant now that Heron has all permits in place.
Possibly worth noting that Petro China bought in to their production sites next to block XX. They agreed a $93 million dollar purchase of SOCO’s 85% working interest in Mongolia with the full amount being paid when 27.8 million barrels are recovered.
We have 100% interest and 60 million barrels recoverable which puts our asset at Heron alone between $200m and $250m for a buy out.
Taking in to account current mcap and exchange rates, a buy out of Heron would be 17p per share at the same deal parameters.
But block XX also has Gazelle and other targets yet to be confirmed so the very minimum price that should be realised currently even if Velociraptor does not deliver should be 20p per share.
Have a great weekend Yaks!
It would be prudent to note that the whole of block XX has been designated special purpose land and not just the Heron field.
The Toson Uul basin borders block XX and Petro China’s current producing operations.
Petro China’s share of the Toson Uul basin is 40% and they have 2billion barrels of oil in place.
Block XX covers 60% of the Toson Uul basin which could imply that with an even distribution of oil within the basin then Matd might be sitting on 3 billion barrels of oil and that will be why our CEO said this on the RNS “ This important step has been a very long time coming but now provides a firm legal standing to the Company to execute the approved plan of development for Heron and to explore the exciting potential around it.”
Exciting potential!
Have a good one Yaks!
Contained in operational update of 05/12/22
Negotiations with DQE Drilling ("DQE"), the main provider of drilling services in Mongolia, have continued and a contract for a multi-well development drilling programme is in the final stages of discussion. The contract envisages a reduction in drilling costs and deferral of some costs to allow a portion of the drilling expenditure to be settled from future production revenue. The contract still needs to be finalised and agreed with DQE and then with MRPAM, but the cost reductions and payment phasing could significantly improve project cash flows and overall asset value since the largest portion of the Heron development costs are drilling related.
Update in RNS release of 14/02/23 was that negotiations had concluded and were at DQE head office for signing.
Excellent news today and about time. We’ve only been waiting 3 years but now we have a tangible asset that stands us in good stead.
No such problems with Velociraptor in that all permits are in place and the application for an exploitation licence should be more streamlined after lessons learned from block XX.
I am predicting a steady rise until Velociraptor results and then hold on to your hats.
Well done everyone who showed patience and faith that this day would come.
Onwards and upwards Yaks!
Sir Bob, I’m afraid your knowledge of that year has let you down a bit. When Shell pulled annd paying us $10m compensation, the share price rose to 9p after and quickly fell back to the 3.5p range.
Then at the end of June or July, Matd released end of year report and indicated that without further compensation from Shell they would be unable to complete their financial commitments to completing the survey of blocks IV and V. The share price dropped to 1.5p.
Shell gave an additional $5m which allowed Matd to complete their surveying which led to the release of the results I mentioned before in November that year and the share price kicked on from there.
If we enter into a joint venture in blocks IV or V we have to pay the $5m back.
Rookie.
Quite simply Matd published the results of their extensive surveying of blocks IV and V which contained an estimate of between 9billion and 23billion barrels of oil in place.
Matd had also opened a data room inviting other oil companies to view the data with a view to setting up joint ventures.
Matd’s RNS releases at the time stated that several parties were interested and the excitement of the potential caused the share price to soar.
It could far exceed that period if Velociraptor is successful.
Hope this helps
Possibly worth noting that Petro China bought in to their production sites next to block XX. They agreed a $93 million dollar purchase of SOCO’s 85% working interest in Mongolia with the full amount being paid when 27.8 million barrels are recovered.
We have 100% interest and 60 million barrels recoverable which puts our asset at Heron alone between $200m and $250m for a buy out.
Taking in to account current mcap and exchange rates, a buy out of Heron would be 17p per share at the same deal parameters.
But block XX also has Gazelle and other targets yet to be confirmed so the very minimum price that should be realised currently even if Velociraptor does not deliver should be 20p per share.
Then there is what happens if Velociraptor is successful, and Fox and Phoenix and renewables and new blocks.
Currently 6p? Meh!
Have a great weekend yaks!
Mr Positive posted an excerpt earlier today that Matd believes should Velociraptor be successful they will be able to produce 90k barrels per day by 2028 with a CAPEX of $5 per barrel. That is absolutely insane. $5 per barrel? Wow!
I’ve always loved fantasising about what could be and this had me wondering all day about what this means to those of us willing to see things through.
If, and it’s a big IF, that happens then Matd would make $1.8 billion a year profit before tax at $60 per barrel. If Matd awarded 10% to shareholders as dividends then that would be equivalent to 18p per share.
Then I imagine what if the price of oil was $100 per barrel? Well it would be $3.1 billion per year profit or 31p per share dividend.
That is just Velociraptor if successful. Fox would provide the same again if successful. So would Phoenix.
Heron is just under one third the size of Velociraptor but it also has the potential to provide dividend generating profits and that is the significance of the granting of the LP.
So if Velociraptor, Fox and Phoenix are all successful and each of them produce 90k barrels of oil per day then this company can realise a profit of over $5.4 billion a year before tax.
We currently have an mcap that reached $50m today. In 4 or 5 years time our annual profit could be 100 times our current mcap.
Then we have our renewable energy project to think about and the other targets.
It’s scary but it’s worth thinking about if you are considering selling below 10p per share.
Might not sleep tonight lol.
I don’t think we know how big Velociraptor could be. Mike seems pretty confident about it as the company thinks the oil from Snow Leopard migrated to the trap they have called after the nasty dinosaur.
Matd operate on a 17% recovery rate estimate, which means the Velociraptor target is thought to contain 1182million barrels of oil and probably why their upper estimate is 400million barrels recoverable.
Fox is the same 200m recoverable so makes it a similar estimate of over a billion barrels in place.
Phoenix and Phoenix West are even bigger with a total estimate of 360 million barrels recoverable.
Matd has stated that modern drilling techniques can bring the recoverable rate up to 30% which means the total potential recovery (if successful) between Velociraptor, Fox and Phoenix is circa 1 billion barrels.
Mongolia is going to have to build a **** load more refineries because the current capacity of the refinery being built is 30k barrels per day which will take 91 years to process if Matd’s drilling of the prospects prove to be successful.
This is important to remember, we already have a local permit for Velociraptor.
There has always been massive potential here, the permission to drill and exploit Heron is huge, it’s massive, it is THE most important key to Matd’s success and when granted I am guessing a lot of people here will make a very nice sum of money, as will the company.
2023 - The year of the Yak. Good luck
First estimates at Heron was a 25million barrel recovery which the company placed an NPV10 of $150m at $60 per barrel.
New estimates are up to 60 million barrels which at current $85 per barrel would be circa NPV10 of $500m.
I think
Sorry WOS have to correct you on the Toson Uul basin. Yes we have 60% of the basin but the two billion proven barrels are in the Petro China 40% of the basin.
If the oil is distributed in proportion through the basin then we could be looking at 3 billion barrels on our 60%.
Looks like it could be our year at last
June 2015 - Farm out agreement with BG group for exploration blocks IV and V.
April 2016 - Shell, having bought BG group, withdraw from farm out agreement.
Aug 2016 - Shell pay $10m to Matd to exit agreement with a further $5m once complete.
Nov 2016 - results of surveying on blocks IV and V estimates between 9 and 23 billion barrels of oil in place. Also Petex conference attracts a number of potential JV partners wishing access to Data Room. Share price starts it’s meteoric rise from 3p to over 35p.
Feb 2017 - Matd receive $5m compensation from Shell, share price stabilises in the 20p to 30p range while investors wait of news of drilling and joint ventures.
May 2017 - Idiot CEO Ridvan Karpuz enters into death spiral finance with Bergen group.
Oct 2017 - Mike Buck appointed CEO
Dec 2017 - Bergen death spiral finance terminated
Jan 2018 - Placing to raise $16m at 6.5p per share for drilling
June 2018 - Additional placing to raise $18m at 10p per share
July 2018 - Spud of Snow Leopard
Sep 2018 - Snow Leopard plugged and abandoned
Oct 2018 - Spud of Wild Horse
Nov 2018 - Wild Horse plugged and abandoned
July 2019 - Spud of Heron
Aug 2019 - Spud of Red Deer and beginning of local provincial govt problems at Heron.
Aug 2019 - Drilling resumes at Heron
Sep 2019 - Oil discovery at Heron
Sep 2019 - Red Deer plugged and abandoned
Sep 2019 - Spud of Gazelle
Oct 2019 - Oil discovery at Gazelle
Oct 2019 - Testing at Heron showed oil to be hIgh quality 46api oil flowing freely without artificial lift or stimulation and flowed at a peak of 821 bopd.
Mar 2020 - COVID. Application for exploitation licence. CPR increases estimates of oil at Heron.
May 2020 - Senior Management agree to 50% pay cuts, exploitation licence application still ongoing.
Dec 2020 - Covid continues to scupper progress
Apr 2021 - Still waiting on exploitation licence
July 2021 - Exploitation licence granted
July 2021 - Placing to raise $10m at 3.5p per share
July 2021 - Feb 2023 - Land access issues
Feb 2023 - Fund raise of $6m
March 30th 2023 - One day closer to being granted local permit
It’s been a long journey for quite a few of us here, if you have not long been invested in Matd then you may have joined at the best possible time in the past 8 years. Good luck to all and let’s hope this is the year of the Yak.
Been here for years. Been in Copl for years too and still am. Also been in other shares. Never, ever experienced a proper BOOM RNS but both Matd and Copl have the potential to provide investors with that life changing BOOM moment.
We know that Matd have said they can extract 60million barrels from Heron. The Local access permit allows Matd in collaboration with DQE to start immediate extraction with progress onto a multiple well programme. Current oil price is $72 which makes the value of estimated oil extraction at over $4.2billion.
Velociraptor already has local agreements in place. If drilling proves successful in finding oil then the issues we faced in gaining an exploitation licence at Heron should be far more streamlined.
Velociraptor success also increases the confidence that Fox and Phoenix will also be rewarding.
Don’t forget the new exploration licences up for tender and the renewable energy divergence the company is embracing.
Lots of good news to come, it’s the waiting that hurts.
Let’s hope we all get to read that RNS that makes us all think BOOM! Feckin yassssss!
Once a yak, always a yak.
List of positives
60 million barrels recoverable from Heron 1 alone
Agreement with DQE for multiple well programme (awaiting sign off by DQE board)
Gazelle has definite oil in the millions
Mongolia is building a refinery
Petrovis continues to support Matd
Mike Buck has over 10 million shares at an average of 3.5p from his own money
Definitely drilling at Velociraptor this year
Estimated over 800 million barrels recoverable at Velociraptor, Phoenix and Fox if successful with drills
Ambition shown by Matd to apply for further exploration licences on other blocks
In a joint venture for renewables via mass solar energy fields
….There’s probably more that I’ve forgotten.
List of negatives
Operating in a country run by numpties
Operating in a country run by numpties
Operating in a country run by numpties
Operating in a country run by numpties etc, etc, etc.
How frustrating must it have been for Mike Buck and his team to have to wait over a year for an exploration licence and continue to wait over 2 years for a local permit. The bureaucracy in Mongolia is a feckin joke. One day they’ll wake up and realise that supporting business investment is beneficial for their country.
Bowles. I have no idea what your designation is in Mongolia but how can that Country hope to attract foreign investment when govt representatives fail to turn up for scheduled meetings with a foreign ambassador and a company hoping to generate hundreds of millions towards that country’s economy.
Who the feck is running Mongolia? George and Bungle? With Rod, Jane and Freddy as advisors.
They need a boot up the *rse.