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Don’t post much any more.
It’s no longer a daily price chase or watch or whatever.
It’s all about knowing what is about to happen. A lot of us have been here when we were trying to find the oil that would transform the company.
But now we know…..you know?
Company reckon recoverable oil of 60 million barrels from Heron 1 alone.
Not counting Capex current value of recoverable oil is $5.4 billion.
Mcap is $49m.
Our recoverable value not taking account of capex is over 100 times more than our current mcap.
Think there may be a few bags to come here
I have previously posted about NPV and I have absolutely no idea how it works but prior to the CPR on Heron, Matd valued the NPV 10 at $150m. This was based on a recoverable 25million barrels at $60 per barrel. The only way it made sense to me was that it was 10% of 25 million multiplied by 60 or 10% of $1.5billion.
The CPR revised the recoverable amount of oil at Heron to 33 million barrels which made a new NPV of circa $200m based on $60 per barrel.
Matd then stated that by using advanced techniques, they could increase the recoverable amount at Heron to 60 million barrels which would make an NPV of $360m at $60 per barrel.
We all know that Brent is now sitting above $80 per barrel with expectations of it exceeding $100 per barrel.
So now we have a company with an Mcap of $50m(rough currency conversion) which has an NPV 10 of circa $500m for the Heron field alone.
Further leads on block XX with estimates of 100-200m barrels and further 3D seismic being carried out to establish other potential oil deposits in the area. Not to mention block V and the raptors.
Here we go again yaks. Enjoy the ride. It still excites me after all this time :0)
“Reached £110m MCap back in Feb 2017 when we had no discovery.
Today we are in much stronger pisition having a very juicy Oil discovery. Heron Oil field looking to be much bigger than originally thought in my view with circa 700 million barrels before even looking at Gazelle discovery.
Out of the 2 billion barrels recoverable, less than 100m barels been produced so far with a large chunk of Oil still to come out.”
Sorry Mr P but the Toson Uul basin does not have 2 billion barrels. But it does have an estimated 2 billion barrels in blocks XIX and XXI which are owned and run by Petro China. However blocks XIX and XXI account for only 40% of the Toson Uul Basin with the remaining 60% within our block XX. Even oil distribution across the entire basin would indicate that our 60% could potentially contain 3bn barrels of oil.
Planned seismic exploration may or may not firm up estimates but it is looking good for us.
A transformational year ahead? …….Probably :0)
Our current mcap is £25m.
Oil is now trading over $80 a barrel. Matd are reckoning they can recover 60m barrels from Heron. That is $4.8bn and we are currently at £25m mcap.
Block XX has 60% of the Toson Uul Basin, the other 40% has an estimated 2bn barrels. Potential 3bn barrels in our section of the basin or $240bn.
Block V velociraptor etc, potentially more billions and yet we are still £25m mcap
People here waiting to sell at 8p per share. Go ahead and watch the true value hit the ££££’s.
It’s only a matter of time.
All in my opinion, blah, blah de blah, blah.
Whether factual or not, the answer will be ‘Covid’. This pandemic is not going away and it is the only reason we are not drilling this year.
The EL was delayed because of it, the logistics of bringing foreign workers in to the country etc, etc.
If Covid was not a thing we would be producing by now.
Covid is a b*^+#*d
A couple of things I’d like to speculate on.
First of all I believe Petro China have been playing hardball, forcing Matd to play their hand and raise funds through the unwelcome placing that has destroyed sentiment on this board.
Secondly the positives that came from that placing was that both Mike Buck and Petrovis invested heavily in it.
Mike Buck now has 10,725,000 shares at an average price of 3.18p. He has never sold any but continues to buy which confirms his belief in the potential value of Matd whether you trust him or not. Our parent company Petrovis also continue to invest. They are the ones with all the information and I would be very sceptical if either one had not participated in the placing.
Thirdly, and this is my favourite part, and just for fun. I recently posted that Matd have highlighted what oil they estimate recovering in targeted fields in blocks XX and V. This would be
Heron - 60 million barrels
Nearby fields to Heron - 100million to 200million barrels
Velociraptor - 400million barrels
Fox - 200million barrels
Phoenix - 230million barrels
Phoenix West - 130million barrels
Total so far of 1.2billion barrels.
Matd also seem to calculate their NPV with a formula of (proven reserves x price of oil) x 10%. Their initial value of heron at $150m was based on a recovery of 25 million barrels, estimating price of oil at $60 per barrel (25m x 60 = $1.5bn) x 10% = $150m.
Surmising that our other fields become successful then our NPV at current oil prices would be (1.2billion x 70 = $84billion) x 10% = $8.4billion.
And yet we have an Mcap of £25m.
My thoughts, based on recent history. Have a good one.
“Matd don't have billions of barrels in the ground”…….They do, they just haven’t proven it yet.
Petro China have an estimated 2 billion barrels in their 38% share of the Toson Uul Basin. Matd has 62% of the Toson Uul Basin within which lies the Heron field.
Heron has 194 million barrels and Matd now are confident that a 30% recovery is achievable giving a recovery estimate of 60million barrels.
They also state that near field leads have an estimated recovery of between 100m and 200m barrels which at a 30% recovery would make the oil in place between 330m and 660m barrels.
Then there is gazelle and the rest of block XX to account for.
Then we head to block V with Velociraptor 400 million barrels, Fox with a recoverable estimate of 200million barrels, Phoenix with 230 million barrels and Phoenix West with an additional 130 million barrels.
We are debt free, we have $10 million in the bank, we have an exploitation licence and a sh*t load of oil. The only reason we have an mcap of £26m is because next year hasn’t happened yet.
Have a good week Yaks. Take care and best wishes.
I did like that interview, but I am an eternal optimist.
It was good to establish that Matd’s aim for a JV partner is to fund further wells on Heron initially and when the numbers are examined it becomes clear why, IMO.
Matd’s revised figures of recovery from Heron is 60 million barrels which doesn’t sound excessive as a target but when broken down to daily figures it becomes clear why a JV partner would be preferable.
Over the 25 year exploitation licence they would have to recover 2.4million barrels per annum to meet the target of 60million barrels or the equivalent of 6575 barrels per day.
Configure in the two 5 year extensions and that becomes 1.7million barrels per annum or 4696 barrels per day.
During testing, Heron flowed at a peak of over 800 bopd although the normal flow was around 250 bopd.
So in order to maximise the extraction from the Heron basin they are going to need between 6 and 25 wells unless the extraction methods referred to in the interview increases the recovery rate.
Oil is currently over $70 per barrel so if minimum extraction rates are achieved over the 25-35 yr licence Matd would be pulling between $320k and $460k worth of oil from the ground everyday, minus costs, taxes and expenses.
Then factor in the nearby recovery estimates of between 100m and 200m barrels of oil and they’ll need a sh*tload of rigs.
There is a lot of money to be made with Matd and it starts within the next year but maybe I’ll keep my car for the next 40 years and see if it’s worth a bit.
From a selfish point of view I am hoping it stays around this level till I have the funds to top up but news of a JV in my opinion is the first price catalyst.
Have a nice week yaks!
We currently have an Mcap of £25m.
The Revised NPV on heron alone is $220m but that is based on a recovery of 33m barrels at $60 per barrel.
We revised our recovery to around 60m barrels with stimulation which would make our NPV circa $400m. (Current mcap £25m).
Near field recovery is between 100m and 200m barrels which would bring our NPV to between $700m and $1.5bn.
Our agreed exploitation area includes the whole extension of the Toson Uul basin into block XX. The estimated recoverable oil in the Toson Uul basin in the blocks controlled by Petrochina is around 2bn barrels. Their area is 38% of the Toson Uul basin and we have 62%. If the oil is distributed evenl6 then we have potentially 3bn barrels in our licenced part of the basin.
17% recovery of 3bn barrels is 510m barrels which equates to an NPV of over $3bn.
But let’s stick to the figures provided by Matd regarding WHAT WE CAN EXPLOIT because we have the licence to do it and it is around 200m barrels, equivalent to an mcap of $1.2bn.
So to summarise our current Mcap represents a valuation of 2% of a conservative NPV.
Yep, our current mcap is 50 times less than our conservative NPV on the heron field. Then we have velociraptor with 200m barrels etc, etc.
The recent placing gave us 5he opportunity to tap into our potential without being indebted to a partner who may have used our financial weakness to negotiate a deal which would have robbed us of our true worth.
If you can’t wait, then sell. If you can wait then welcome to the best current long term investment on the aim market IMO
It may not be obvious to others but Mike Buck actually averaged UP during this absolutely unwelcome placing. Prior to this Mike had spent £272500 of his own money in accumulating 8725000 shares, the equivalent of 3.1p per share. Yet he was quite happy to invest a further $100k of his own money in the company. Any sales by him must be declared and would be a red flag, not happened yet.
This current share price, in my opinion is down to the incompetent announcement of informing the market that Matd will not be producing oil until next year. A completely naive understanding of the aim market and the short, quick profit investment strategy of the vast majority of investors.
However for the few of us who have never lost sight of the big picture, things are looking fantastic.
We have an exploitation licence which includes Heron whose proven reserves have been estimated at 194m barrels which the company now believe can extract 60m barrels. I reckon this now values the npv of Heron at $400m. Matd estimated the npv of heron at $150m based on a recovery of 25m barrels at $60 per barrel. (Now 60m barrels at $75 per barrel)
Near field recovery estimates between 100 and 200m barrels, block V drilling estimates over 500 m barrels and we are sitting at an mcap of £30m.
The hard work has been done. Invest now for multiples on your investment because Matd will be a billion dollar mcap company in the next couple of years in m6 opini9n
Apologies Jlite. Yes you are correct it definitely reads that the Toson Uul basin contains 2 billion barrels in blocks XIX and XXI.
However if block XX has 62% of the basin then I’ve been drastically underestimating our potential If and it’s a big if, the oil is evenly distributed across the basin.
Petro China’s blocks have 38% of the basin which is 2 billion barrels so our 62% is roughly 3 billion barrels
Jlite. The Toson Uul basin straddles both blocks XIX and XX. In the 2019 presentation, it states that 62% of the basin is situated in block XX. The basin as a collective is believed to hold 2 billion barrels, so I’ll stick by the figures I gave thanks.
All the best
Don’t know if we still do fag packet calculations but here’s mine lol.
In 2019 Matd released an investors presentation where they stated an NPV10 of $150 million. That was based on Heron having 25 million barrels of proven reserves and an assumption of $60 per barrel.
I have no idea how they worked that out so it looks like they multiplied the proven reserves by 10% of the price of a barrel of oil. (25m x 6 = 150) 22 cents per share.
They now have proven reserves of 33 million barrels and oil is now over $70 per barrel. That would make the NPV of $231million (33m x 7) 34 cents per share.
But today they stated that they believe they could extract 30% of the oil in place rather than the previously thought 17% which means they upped their estimate to 60 million barrels which would make an NPV of $420m (60m x 7)
61 cents per share.
Then consider that their exploitation licence includes the 62% of the Toson Uul basin believed to contain 2 billion barrels of oil and assuming the oil is evenly distributed, then matd may have access to 1.2 billion barrels.
An extraction rate of 17% would produce 204 million barrels which would make an NPV of $1.428 billion. $2.09 per share
An extraction rate of 30% would 360 million barrels or an NPV of $2.52 billion $3.70 per share
That’s just Toson Uul basin, much, much more for Matd to explore and exploit.
Currently 8p per share, I’m not selling.
The EL licence is the game changer for Matd as it allows us to explore, exploit and produce our area in block XX.
Something important to note is that our licenced area includes 62% of the total Toson Uul basin which means that if the oil is distributed evenly across the whole basin we will have just over 1.2 billion barrels of oil in place.
If Matd are now estimating a 30% recovery then they will be looking to produce 360million barrels of oil over the next 25 years from this basin alone. That’s 14 million barrels per year or 40,000 barrels per day.
It’s an awful lot of oil and that’s just from one basin. Our potential recovery is in the multiple billions of $$$$ and yet here we are, still under a £60m Mcap.
‘The retained Exploitation Area includes the entire extension into Block XX of the proven and producing Toson Uul Basin. This basin contains an estimated 2 billion barrels of in place oil in the PetroChina operated areas in Block XXI and XIX immediately to the north of Block XX.’
I’m thinking, new president sworn in last week. Now in the process of forming or has formed a new cabinet. Unfortunate timing for a new government to be elected along with our final submission of the. licence happened to clash and appears to have impacted on the timeous issuing of the licence.
We are going to get it, what we should be discussing is the plan of development and who’s involved and what’s involved.
Their last presentation suggested a 64 well program.
Can’t believe we’re still dicking about at this level when we are on the cusp of changing to being a producer and making money.
My theory regarding the delay in issuance of the licence.
More time needed fellow yaks. Enjoy the rest of your day. Go Switzerland Ojay, great result
Everything has been done, just awaiting the rubber stamp from the Government.
As required under the government's Exploitation Licence application process, a Plan of Development (PoD) has to be prepared by the Company and approved by the Mineral Resources Professional Council (MRPC). The approval of the PoD is the final step in the Exploitation Licence application process and after the clarifications requested by MRPC were provided by the Company, MRPC members signed off on the outstanding items and the Council is now finalising its conclusion. The formal application for the Block XX Exploitation Licence has now been submitted to the Ministry of Mining and Heavy Industry (MMHI) requesting the Minister to award the Licence.