focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
No VK, there is no significant volume and given the number of shares in issue the notion of 'momentum' in either direction is redundant until there is some news vs plan. I guess the sales of recent days must include yours and now you are after a dip so you can get on board again. Don't miss the boat. Cats are rarely on board when we push off.
As I predicted....FUD spreaders pop up with their 'comprehensive research'. Laughable contribution. I'll donate a tenner to a charity of your choice if you are right about the end of week price Joe. Would you like to reciprocate if you are wrong ?? No?
I notice as Robsroom pointed out that "OPRED killed Jackdaw". Take a look at that. Shell have deep enough pockets to do platform electrification but their plans for Jackdaw included diesel generation. The location makes it as far away from anywhere useful to do shore supply - perhaps Norway would be better than UK as they have plenty of hydro power. If anyone is going to do local (to the platform) floating wind generation Shell at Jackdaw would be an obvious candidate. I was somewhat sceptical of the idea of floating generation - its really inhospitable out there but after some research I have changed my view. Take a look at this no-tech introduction and a good overview of the current state of the technology and economics. There's even the odd joke in there.
Deep Ocean Floating Wind Turbines. How do they do that? - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tfz5zcAcJNk
Perhaps Shell ought to try something a little less ambitious first, something a bit nearer the shore. Buchan perhaps? Just a serving suggestion.
Thank you, thank you DU. Your posts are always thoroughly well thought through. You are very generous with your insights. Of courses every investor here takes a view from their own perspective and the education you offer from the financial/M&A/valuation perspective is extremely useful to those of us with little insight from that angle.
I view this investment perhaps from more of a 10000 ft geopolitical outlook. I worry less about the exact price of oil - it was briefly less than $zero 18 months ago remember. If it was $400 in 2 years time I would be entirely unsurprised. Things I notice: Most of Europe's gas comes from Russia and Vlad can hardly be regarded as a reliable trading partner. Most of the rest of the worlds O&G is in the Middle East and keeping a lid on that region's conflicts has occupied the West for decades. The UKs O&G stocks and prospects are hugely strategically important. The world economy is slowly recovering from the CV-19 pandemic so demand is increasing. Ships, planes, trains, tractors, lorries, my central heating & yours and the worlds militaries all run on O&G with very little in the way of real world alternatives: the main candidate being hydrogen which is made almost exclusively from natural gas. We are not (surely) going to level the remaining rainforest to plant the crops to supply enough ethanol to replace another 10% of the petrol in our tanks are we? Reducing O&G consumption a few percent here and there is tinkering around the edges of the problem. The beneficial effects of E10 petrol will be eradicated by China and India's growing middle classes taking to the road (and air) in ever increasing numbers. The holy grail is carbon capture and storage. The low hanging fruit is the stopping of methane emissions from oil wells and the removal of large scale inefficient generation on platforms.
"Maybe electrification is a prerequisite for any future dev"
RR, yes. YES it is. No doubt! What has been called a "pipe-dream" on here is the new reality. Talk of curtailing licenses for producing assets if they don't modernise (electrify and stop fugitive emissions) . Some may not like it, some may not believe it but a revolution is underway.
Everyone invested in JOG ought to read that article carefully. It's clear the OGA are not another toothless regulator even if some operators are calling their bluff by sitting on their hands re cleaning up their acts. A few cancelled licenses due to lack of action may be needed in due course.
Anyone not living under a rock nor entirely bereft of scientific knowledge understands the urgent need for O&G to clean up fast: then offshore sequestration of carbon makes the industry a major part of the solution rather than the problem. Heel draggers are also underestimating the mood of the population and risk their 'social license to operate' too.
JOG are on the right side of the OGA and are clearly positioned to be hailed as the new face of O&G extraction. The dirty old-school oilers may well want to abandon their brands soon in favour of the leader (on our side of the NS) of clean extraction. The OGA is our friend and success for JOG will be a victory for the regulator too.
100% correct Dick. The XR fanatics are intellectually lazy, had they been alive 40 years ago they would have been protesting to keep coal mines open!
You do have to feel sorry for Greta though. Her youth and intellectual development is being stolen from her by her puppet-masters: who knows the political views of her parents? Going on-strike from her education is symbolic of the XR mentality.
If only the XR anarchists would spend some time reading B F Skinner, and Chomsky they may have a more informed view. If only they grasped the importance of fossil fuel to feed most of the world's population and put the the Chinese clothes on their backs.
While I write a bunch of them are stopping traffic on the M25 whilst 3 van loads of police stand and look on. They could be spending their time learning about carbon capture, hydrogen manufacture, perhaps even platform electrification, instead of causing thousands of cars and lorries to idle their engines for no economic benefit. Utter morons.
VK, I always wondered about your motivation on here. No disrespect but your comments never seemed sophisticated enough for a genuine shorter. You were always trying to get a lower entry price. You are a bat n bull after all.
VK, the "electrification pipe-dream" as you put it is anything but. Platform electrification is the only show in town for all future platforms. Have a good read of the OGA website to understand why. Nor is it particularly daunting, Equinor are showing the way in the NS. Undersea cables are not new. The technology to achieve electrification is all current-day. Carbon capture & storage is the real challenge and absolutely essential to save the planet in the longer term.
The electrification agenda is understood to be the only way forward: JOG know that as do the majors. The GBA location and the hub concept make collaboration a no-brainer - just needs a thicker wire. Collaborators will win with lower costs. Some may prefer to leave the NS completely but as the XR debate gets fuelled by the 'stop everything' morons (together with the mealy-mouthed support from Sir KS) we will start to see support for buying oil from sources that are environmentally responsible. 'Our' oil will become even more strategically important. The GBA will very obviously be re-developed. The question is, by whom. JOG have done much of the ground work. The big-boys may well want to snap it up after doing anything they can to drive down the price. They may wait 'til they can see the whites of our eyes. I hope Tommy and other significant holders here stay on board of course.
Hey VK, looks like you are becoming converted to the notion that a cogent argument is necessary to be taken seriously. A bit of punctuation, although unconventional on SM, would help you get your ideas across better. Point of fact: the SP is not some kind of omniscient being. The price 'knows' Jack Squat.
Yes it does. Take a look at the OGAs page on the topic...
https://www.ogauthority.co.uk/the-move-to-net-zero/platform-electrification/
The brownfield electrification section could have been taken from a JOG resource. It's clear the OGA are right behind JOG's ambitions. I would expect in the case of the GBA to be a simpler shore feed even if floating generation was nearby. The latter does not need to be very far offshore to work well and shore supply is needed for GBA when the wind is not blowing. The missing bit for me is whether carbon capture is also on the cards for JOG as any redevelopment is going to be cheaper for JOGs clear sheet than for other fields with their pre-existing old-world on site infrastructure.