Member Info for Cygnus7

5x5,
That's my point!
All I see is proving up more resource, and very good it is... but
Where's the off ramp?
So, I ask again?
Cygnus

I'm a shareholder from the old Arian days and so I'm heavily underwater ! I have topped up recently as this is now clearly a different company, but, as soon as I did there was a dose of dilution. So, my question to those who keep a closer eye on this company than me is: where's the off ramp? It looks like the company has a lot of silver in the ground (plus other resources) but how do we know that there's a buyer out there?
Other companies such as XTR already have at least one buyer waiting to make an offer for that company's copper. Is there an equivalent for Alien?
I'm just afraid that if I put more cash into Alien, what's to stop it being diluted away, year after year as they prove up more and more silver but never sell it on. To create their own mine would involve even more dilution. Sounds like Arian until they failed to pay the creditors.
Convince me and I could become a bigger shareholder.
I'm signing off for the rest of the day but if anybody is good enough to give me a credible answer then I thank you in advance.
Cygnus

As the response to BRDD-21-020 was viewed as negative in some quarters I thought it might be worthwhile looking at this hole and seeing, in very broad terms and with lots of assumptions, what it adds to the Racecourse open-pit and its value to the XTR sp.
So, assuming Racecourse consists of 2MT and that we have drilled 40 holes (rough estimate), dividing one into the other suggests that on average each hole has found 50K T of Cu eqt. However, BRDD-21-020 was not the best hole so I'm going to assume half that value - 25k T. Assuming the price of Cu is 10k per T that means this hole's results suggest a value of 25k x 10 k which is $250M of in the ground value. As XTR will only get a fraction of that I'll assume our portion is 2% (I'm personally hoping for more but lets keep it real). This works out at $5M. Multiply by .75 to get a rough idea of the value in £ gives £3.75M.
XTR has/will eventually have about 1 billion shares so divide £3.75M/1B gives 0.375p per share which is almost 6% of the current sp.
So, to summarise, BRDD-21-020 added 25kT of Cu to the racecourse package, which is $250M of Cu eqt value to a miner willing to purchase the resource. To XTR, the added value was £3.75M with an underlining added value to the sp of 0.375p.

Not bad for a 'disappointing' hole.

Obviously these are finger in the air guesses and the approach is very simplistic but I thought it was worth looking at just what this hole added to the overall scheme of things.
Cygnus

Howezap, I think there may well be some holding back of assay results (is that allowed?) to assimilate them within the model prior to presentation to AA, not that it bothers me too much. Just hope there's a plan.

Sitting tight. Now bought all that I'm going to buy and just watching the ride unfold.

Steve,
You note that there are options that expire in 2024 and so CB has an incentive to wrap things up. Personally I'd prefer a further investment in time and money to ensure we get top dollar for both Ascot & Footrot although I obviously wouldn't want to push it all the way out to 2024! My one fear is that an artificial time line stops us from fully capitalizing on the assets at BR.
Cygnus

Fair comments boyasaka but there are some reasons that make XTR different. I've had shares that were going to make me rich only to get an RNS that informs me that this months loan money was not paid and the loan company now owns everything I invested !
So, with XTR, there is no debt. That hatch door will not open.
The resource is there - lots of it. This is not an exploration company hoping to find something useful and using dilution to fund that hope.
We even have a customer lined up. If that customer is not interested then a bidding war could break out.
Our resource (Cu) is at the start of a 'super cycle'.
There are two routes from here. Either the timetable is kept in which case this should be sorted by the summer, or, and in some respects, I prefer the second option, time, and money are required to expand the resource even further (Footrot + definition of Ascot + RC & Ascot link ?).
Although a delay is regrettable, the added value, especially if funded from Africa would be financially very worthwhile in my opinion although I know some think differently.
I have seen on other boards posters saying things like "name one company on the AIM market that's got better prospects than company XYZ" and but for the fear of being called a ramper, I'd love to reply - check out XTR. Maybe I should, just to get the word out there.
So, I struggle to see how XTR is not going to deliver - but many a slip between cup and lip !
Cygnus

Thanks for the reply Mmir. I have a similar number of shares and also top up on the dips but have been here a long time. I actually had a bit of luck (unusual for me when it comes to investing) and started topping up pre Bushranger to break even on the event of the African assets maturing - then BR news broke with that first big hole.
Cygnus

It seems to me that a lot more newcomers have appeared on this board over the last week or so: welcome all!
I saw one a few days ago (sorry can't remember who) mention that they had never heard of XTR before but had now taken a stake in the company. I was wondering where the newcomers had heard about XTR. Has some new PR made its way into the investing community that has given XTR a higher profile? It's just that we have been getting great news for a year or more now and been ignored except it seems for the momentum investors - many of who will only buy in because of the sp movement and I suspect some have no idea what we do! They then sell within hours or days having secured their 5% booty.

So, I'd be interest to know where or how XTR came to be known about to the newcomers. Thanks in advance for any answers.
Cygnus

That was a good day. I had hoped to top up if the price dropped but happy to sit out and watch the price move through 6p should we get a a repeat tomorrow.
Cygnus

Howezap, you're wasting your time. We live in a post truth, post facts world where opinions carry more weight than evidence. Ted needs to sigh up and buy in or sling his hook - nobody's interested.
Cygnus

Despite icebergs reservations, clearly CB is looking at the prospect of commercial molybdenum in Ascot because the grades there are higher than Racecourse - otherwise we would have heard about it previously. Whether high enough to be worthwhile we will see but from my research molybdenum has very low grades in porphyries (yet is a valuable source of moly) but that is compensated to some degree by its value which is currently about 4 x Cu but has been far higher in recent decades. So, gold, silver and moly could act as a very useful multiplier to the value of Ascot.
Don't wish to contradict you iceberg but I'm hoping you're wrong !

In CB's last inte44rview he spoke about how Ascot was a new and minerally different beast to Racecourse. In particular he mentioned the presence of increased Gold plus Molybdenum (Mo) and Silver - all of which are often found in porphyry systems. I just wanted to draw attention to the Mo in particular because if it's present in commercial quantities then this metal could seriously enhance the overall value of Ascot. It seems that over the last year the price of Mo has doubled and is currently around 4 times that of Cu.
There has been talk that maybe CB has changed tack over the last week or so and may want to invest more effort into Ascot and I was wondering if it was the presence of Mo that may have caused this (if indeed it's real). I thought it was interesting that no grades were given for Mo. Is this because it needs additional analysis and will have to wait a little longer for those?
So, my point is that Ascot may indeed be another animal with rich mineral resources that could include Cu, Au, Mo & Ag. Even if it's not as big as Racecourse, and there's no evidence that that's the case these additional metals could multiply the overall value relative to Racecourse.
Hope that doesn't come over as ramping but I've not heard anybody mention the potential value of these metals and I think they could be important.

Andrew, I share that concern. It would be interesting to see what percentage of XTR shareholders would be prepared to wait a little longer with the prospect of getting a better price for Ascot - hopefully without dilution.
But then CB says that we do not need to prove Ascot the way Racecourse has been. Fair enough but the must be a happy medium.

Yes Phatbaz, don't want to be sold short on Ascot.

So, Africa announces that it can support XTR's financial requirements while Australia continues to do its thing and the market reacts by dropping the company sp!
O.K, the sp may recover later today and it is just negative but what do investors want? Are they really waiting until the evening before contracts are signed because they have better paces to invest their money in the intervening hours?
All seems perverse to me...
Rant over.
Cygnus

>Frustrating when people not with any clue of what's going on inside the company shout RNS today, tomorrow, next week.<

Hey, on the 3rd Jan I predicted an RNS the following day and there were 6 of them !!
O.K, I concede they were price monitoring RNSs, but still... pretty good crystal ball work on my part....

Andrew and Littlewing,
It was Porvenireal's last sentence "Paying 47 million pounds for that prospect is still baffling to me." Suggests he meant Bushranger!
But, either way, he is clearly mis-informed.

Andrew 4444,
You made a good assessment of Porvenireal's take on XTR. However, you missed one point which I thought was very mis-informed. The statement that XTR had paid £47M for the Bushranger prospect! Don't know where that came from but I believe it was more like £1.25M. Not sure if that's £ or $ but it's a snip at half the price, in either currency.

I suggested some days ago that maybe CB did not want to tip toe across the 2MT line but rather batch the info so that when that barrier is crossed it would be by a substantial margin. The lack of recent news would work well with that theory.
All relevant news needs to be released to the market but our Christmas present was the announcement of a new porphyry. I would guess that that means the market is up to date. Any one hole result or assay (or a few of them) would not constitute market sensitive news (as long as we eventually receive them) as we have been informed about the 'big news'. I think we are going to get, maybe not for a few weeks, even a month or more get, any news, but then receive a big reveal which will clearly be more than 2MT.
If anyone is getting nervous - then realise that the Cu already found is not going to evaporate and we always have Africa to fall back on (once income has been confirmed).

I'm wondering if the 2MT trip point is slowing the release of results. By this I mean, if that point was obviously going to be breached, is CB pooling the assays so that we have have far more than 2MT when the news is finally released. Don't want to tip toe across the line, trigger a potential offer and not get top dollar for the asset. I realise of course that the assays need to be incorporated into a JORC standard report.