Member Info for cyberbub

Jolly speculator,

It wouldn't surprise me if Odey was buying up cheap stock in the market, but not declaring it due to the impending delisting.

Although big holders are supposed to declare immediately that they cross every 1% boundary, it's long been clear that they can place a big order (buy or sell) and get away without issuing a TR-1 until the full transaction is completed, which might take days or weeks. If Odey has ordered his broker "buy me 10M shares by the 9th of Dec", he might feel that he won't need to issue a TR-1 on the 11th Dec as the company will have delisted by then?

At that point he would be obliged to launch a takeover bid if he buys *any* shares - but he would have enough (75% plus) that it would succeed automatically.

Machiavellian? Yes. Impossible? No.

No advice intended etc

Farraway. The point about information is a key one and why I was suggesting setting up a group. But if people think that LSE will maintain this group then fine.

Re. buying our shares - we may well have no control over when someone buys our shares, or at what price - but they definitely will have to tell us!!! At the very least we have to be sent some money LOL

What will happen to this BB after delisting? The share won't exist on LSE anymore, so I assume the BB will also vanish. That would be a shame to lose all the useful posts from the past, but more importantly for the future, as the private company has no obligation to release news updates, it would be ideal for remaining investors to be able to stay in touch and discuss developments and share news we've found. Is anyone willing to set up a WhatsApp group say?

No way of telling if it's a buy or a sell. There were plenty of trades above that price yesterday.

Personally I reckon it's more likely to be part of Odey's sales, as per his holdings RNS today.

Whatever it's all "in the price" now as they say!

I have bought in here over the last few days, albeit a fairly modest stake, average a little over 4p. I fully understand the situation and the value that could emerge from Tristar's 16% holding, whether listed or unlisted. The main risk in my view is whether the smelter does in fact get into operation successfully with its latest financing - further technical issues could arise.

On the basis that we all know what sort of greedy financier Odey is, what's stopping him getting through delisting, and then immediately offering to take out the unlisted company, ie. buy the remaining 32%, so he 'steals' the upside until Tristar itself hopefully gets taken out by the SPMP majority partners? Of course if he makes an offer at say 10p, to ensure painless acceptance, then anyone buying today is quids in. But what's the risk of him trying to buy from weak/frightened shareholders in a private company, and offering them 2p per share? I suppose that seems unlikely - any panicked shareholders can sell today at 4p-odd in the market, if they want to.

Any comments?

I would think the reason that more Guarantor complaints are upheld will be to do with two pressure points (or "opportunities" for CMC scumbags), ie both the borrower and their guarantor. It doubles the possibility that Amigo have done something wrong in the lending process. Does that make sense?

Of course the alternative is that Amigo have been particularly slack in their lending. The way to check that is comparing the uphold %ages with other Guarantor loan companies. Is that possible to do with the stats?

Anything above 70% in a genuine multi party election is generally regarded as corrupt. 84% is farcical, he's not even bothering to hide the corruption. It's disappointing but let's hope it doesn't lead to widespread violence and disruption anyway.

..for someth peopleth to speaketh nursery-schooleth 'mediaevaleth' languageth?

I can see that big buy over on ADVFN but I can't see it here despite being over 15 minutes later?

Amtech, every debt package for mine construction comes with a maximum %age that the banks will lend, usually around 80%. It's just like a mortgage for a house, they won't give you more than 90% (at a push these days).

Every miner has to source the remaining funds themselves. Usually that's through issuing equity, which (depending on the quantum and the issue price) can mean big dilution. But as I say that shouldn't happen here, especially with the high IRR which should mean that ACP can get a good issue price and not be screwed over by the City.

Many examples across the markets, just look at SO4 in August, they got a funding package of 70-30 debt-equity, or PRE which has an 85% debt agreement from Chinese banks when they start construction, probably 85% as the IRR is very high... but only slightly higher than ACP's!)

Other ways of raising the 20%-odd are through a royalty agreement (which is just another form of dilution), government grants (seem unlikely in Tanzania) or possibly offtakes with upfront cash (these are rare, and usually ask for discount pricing, but are ideal otherwise).

Of course once the mining permit is issued there is always the possibility of someone swooping to take out the graphite project, at a much higher price than 4p!

Amtech yes I know the full capex is $39M! I'm talking about the company's contribution of 15-20% which is always required in order to release a debt package.

Looking around at some other miners at this stage of development, I wonder whether the Govt will want to see the FEED study results before issuing the full licence? Perhaps this side of Xmas is looking optimistic. But there is still plenty of newsflow on financing and technical development still to come in the meanwhile....

The amazing thing about this share is that potentially there will be only $7-9M required in equity finance to construct the mine.

Possible doubling?

I can't see it happening though, if the ESIA site visit was only held recently according to the latest RNS. ESIA needs to be approved first, then the licence. This is Africa so I don't expect it to be very efficient. But before Xmas seems a realistic prospect IMO.

Not true Scrambler, I am invested at a higher price but am trying to challenge myself about my holding to see if my beliefs stand up to scrutiny.

Jimmyg how can they have served 220k people in the last year when they only have 40k-odd loans on the books from what I understand?

Yes I saw that it was low figures but that was only for Q2. We need to see the Q3 figures, there may be a risk that they have jumped.

I agree. However sometimes there are covenant conditions about level of indebtedness compared to income etc. I don't know what covenants Amigo has on its loans, as it's income has decreased in recent months.

Some have been saying that the banks will call in their loans. This seems unlikely to me as Amigo are still paying the interest, and even managed to pay down £30m in capital as per their recent announcement, despite only having a fraction of loans active at the moment. Would the banks even be entitled to call their loans in if the interest and capital are being repaid? Is there a covenant issue?

Therein lies the problem Jimmyg I suppose. We don't know how many complaints have been received and how many are still likely to come in. We don't know the uphold rate or the average payout so far. Why can't the company just give a quarterly update - or would it look too bad?

Does anyone know why the company are seemingly in the final stages of permitting and financing, but have only recently started working with CSIRO to prove the commercial value of the graphite to be produced? Thanks.