Member Info for cyberbub

Dr Deo there are approx £200m shares in issue.

I'm very interested in OBD, but have held back having missed the rise to 50p, sigh.... I just have a couple of questions which I'm hoping people can help with...?

1. CIRT. At the time of the last placing there was a statement that 4 units now were being ordered per day. That's about $10k per day or $3.5m p.a., which is less than some posters have been claiming on here Does anyone know (a) what the sales forecasts are for the next 2 years say, and (b) what the gross profit margin is?

2. PSE. Based on the 50% discount from list price for CIRT, can we assume that the real price in the US will be about $450? Again does anyone know if there are specific 2-3 year sales targets, and a sales force out there plugging the PSE test? I'm aware from an investment in another healthcare company targeting US payors, that it takes tens of millions of dollars p.a. to run a sales team selling to US payors.

3. Does anyone with expertise in the medical field know whether further trials are required for PSE before it can hit the big time, given that the much-plugged trial in Spring 2023 only had a couple of dozen participants? Or is that all that's required for a "test" rather than for a "drug"?

OBD's tests look excellent clinically. My concern is how quickly sales will build and at what cost.

Thanks very much for any info or links.

There must be a substantial seller(s) overwhelming the buyback and Slater buying more. Hard to tell who it is from the major holdings list though. Almost 40% is owned by directors, who you assume wouldn't sell out of a clearly undervalued company, unless perhaps in a distressed situation personally? Plus Slater's 11% makes it 50% in sticky hands. Maybe that high number just makes it relatively illiquid, so a few people selling sub-1% stakes in a tricky market is enough to drive it down?

I'm hoping that 120 is strong support, let's see.

Good luck all.

Companies don't usually issue another RNS confirming that shares have been admitted. Why would they? RNSes cost about £300 a pop. They would only issue one in the unlikely event that there had been a holdup and the shares hadn't been admitted to trading.

Although I missed the massive rise last week (doh!), and haven't really followed OBD previously, there seems to be a compelling story here and I'm considering investing. My only niggle is whether the company will use the SP rocket to raise some more money? I remember NCYT did that after their share price rocketed during COVID. Anyone got any thoughts? I'm not trying to deramp BTW, just been hit hard over the last year with the wider market declines and am keen to avoid further losses :-/

Thanks for the detailed posts BBN, very helpful! All sounds positive and credible.

Are you fully taking into account the Viatris share?

I'm still struggling to understand why Viatris didn't have to put in $20M to the fundraising as well, as more-or-less 50-50 partners in the sales campaign. Otherwise they're getting a free ride.

It's odd that Viatris were happy with Shield continuing to pledge the IP as collateral for the new loan also, as if Shield default (which seems unlikely IMO) then they (Viatris) would have lost money overall?

While ostensibly having some credibility, this character's story doesn't ring true. Someone of his alleged track record (or even any businessperson) would surely not come into a public BB to announce that he wanted to do business with HE1 and ask for contact details for the CEO? FFS. It's obviously a windup or a pump. Or an autistic person, which the faux-flowery language might indicate.

Emerald I also had a look and can't see any ref to "61%" anywhere on that LinkedIn profile. Was the original poster making it up?

Are you saying that the company have already announced in a presentation that they have achieved 61% QonQ growth for *Q3 2023*?! We haven't finished the quarter yet .. any clarity appreciated.

PS I wouldn't expect that the management team will be in Newcastle in person, I almost went to the last AGM to eyeball them but was told that they wouldn't be there, it would be a Zoom link. Frankly I'm happy to see the CEO not spending 2-3 days coming over for a 1-hour meeting, in this critical ramp up phase!

Interesting that a few people are going to the AGM in person, given that it's in Newcastle. Do you live nearby?

I agree the sales force numbers are hard to tell over Q2. Personally I will be happy with 20k Rx, more is a bonus.

But Q3 we know all 100 reps will be ramping up strongly!

Inventages and Wellness are both subsidiaries of Nestle, so it seems to be just shuffling holdings around between them. I don't know whether there is any underlying significance in that. Still it's an important holding by a major multinational in our little company, which has to be positive.

Joeoh, have you been living under a rock for the last month? Did you not know that AOP are making an offer for Shield?! Just check the RNS from a month ago....

Yes, 6.2p is a ridiculous offer, and Shield's management are recommending that shareholders vote against it. It's thought to be a 'dummy' offer that AOP have been forced to make by AIM regulations, as they crossed above a 30% holding when they converted a big tranche of their loan a month ago. No holder (expect AOP) in their right mind would accept it, as virtually every holder would crystallise a loss (or at best a tiny profit) in that scenario.

However, just to avoid any tiny risk of the takeover succeeding, it's still important that every shareholder votes against the Offer! So when you get your letter, please make sure to do so, ASAP! Just follow the instructions in the letter and cast your vote well before the deadline.

Oh and they quite clearly stated in the last TU that the 70% margin was an accounting aberration, and that the real margin was around 40%. You did read the TU didn't you? ;-)

Revs **were** £5.3M in 2022 Girdz, do you not realise that we're in 2023 now? ;-)

Remember that AOP were not investing in Shield out of the kindness of their hearts, or taking any serious risks - because they had the security of the IP for Accrufer in the USA, which they would have been given if Shield defaulted on the loans. Having said that, most (although not all) of the 2 x $10M loans have now been converted, so the risk of default is much lower.

I would add that if the ESIA is not granted, when EML have bent over backwards to design a dry tailings system, and plan to use wastewater as input rather than fresh water, no doubt at substantial capital cost, then I'm not sure what else they can do. More to the point, it will be a major blow to *any* foreign investors looking to take mining, or indeed any other water intensive projects, forward in Morocco - they will know that water shortages will scupper their plans. The same will apply if EML are refused, and then within 6-12 months OCP suddenly get permission to develop the resource - that would clearly be a disaster for the country's reputation. So I am still 80-90% certain that the ESIA will be granted, but like everyone I am very frustrated. GLA NAI

Some people need to get outside and feel the sunlight and fresh air on their skin. It's a better life if you do.

Testpack did you actually read the January RNS??

GC clearly stated that they had responded to the govt with 'robust' proposals to (a) source water from the local waste water plant instead of a reservoir, and (b) use a dry tailings stack instead of a water-dependent traditional dam.

EML responsibility is to answer the govt's questions on the ESIA with deliverable solutions. But the ESIA approval is in the govt's control. If it was in EML's control if would have been issued 3 years ago!!

You're engaging in sophistry to push your negative view on EML.

Biotechinvestor, I think you're missing something. The big %age rises in late 2022 were achieved with the existing sales team - but they *haven't been sacked*. There is every chance that they will continue to grow sales in Q1 and Q2 as the new team comes online. Don't forget also that the prescribers will be starting to realise that it's a good drug and start to prescribe it to more and more patients off their own bat - no sales effort needed. And finally, the actual patients themselves, many of whom may need a new prescription every 12-18 months for chronic conditions, will soon be starting to demand the same again from their doctors... That's the positive view anyway! Personally I hope to see another 10-15% growth in Q1 and 15-20% in Q2, before we start to hit the bigger growth numbers again, with a full sales team onboard, in Q3.. If Shield are smart they will issue their H1 results in mid-late-September and can then give a clear update on progress in Q3... GLA DYOR etc