RE: Tribeca lock-in14 Oct 2022 10:42
Cut and paste, very basic but the sort of thing I go by, bearing in mind each mine will have differing issues, and each feasibility study may be qualified by engineering, infrastructure etc. constraints.
Different Risks, Different Rewards
If a mining major has hundreds of deposits staked or being mined, the contents of any single deposit aren't likely to shake the stock value too much. A major is the sum of all the deposits with the aforementioned goodwill tied to history.
A change in the market value of a mineral that makes up a larger percentage of the deposits will have a much larger effect than a new deposit or a failed deposit. A junior mining stock lives or dies on the results of its feasibility studies.
A junior mining stock typically sees the most action leading up to, and immediately after, a feasibility study. If the study is positive, then the value of the company may shoot up. The opposite, of course, is also true. Often, a junior miner won't mine a feasible deposit to the end.
Instead, they sell the deposit (or themselves) to a larger miner and move on to search for another one. In this sense, junior mining stocks form an exploration pipeline that feeds the major miners in the end. In this view, the big risks and rewards mostly reside at the junior mining level.