Member Info for Culpepper

For the record.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AMRQ/holdings-in-company-ziyxjgwkgf72yfw.html

Three in there.

The first one a bit unusual. Property leasing co. in Lichfield going into strategic minerals. Going up through 3% to 7% with the placing and new shares I suppose, rather than down in %age terms as a result.

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/11768662/officers

Well, there’s been a good old chopabout which I would like to think has seen off anybody who’s not past caring anyway.
So if the schemers can now do something with the company from this base, new name and all, it’ll be off like a rocket! Upwards.
That’d make a change, wouldn’t it? Somebody told me they can sometimes go up as well as down.

Obviously, Ggp and Newcrest got to be singing from the same hymn sheet first.

Big conflabs all round, won’t it, in order to satisfy all involved. Unavoidable.

We don’t know the mining plan. Won’t until after study anyway. Presumably there will be options, for optimal mine operation.
I don’t know, but I can see plans being submitted to the banks and further discussion. They may say, well, nothing to dislike here, it’s a lot better, and we could go with it, but in the light of the new study we would rather go with your best operation which we appreciate will cost a bit more, and we’re happy to advance the cash, subject to ……..

Early days and remaining grim, but at least may be stabilising, giving home-owners/movers perhaps at least the ability to see where things are going?
https://www.hl.co.uk/news/2022/11/4/boost-for-borrowers-as-bank-of-england-warns-mortgage-rates-are-too-high?utm_campaign=Newsroom&utm_source=AdobeCampaign&utm_medium=email&theSource=EONRM&e_cti=5465692&e_ct=T&Override=1&deliveryName=DM54064

To clarify my thoughts. I have no reason to doubt the funds will be forthcoming, but just at the moment it is more of a case of the cheque being in the post, rather than in the bank.
I expect most will be more pleased when funding draw-downs can actually start.

Ignoring other prospects, and awaiting feasibility study from Ggp, Ggp is substantially where the brokers put it. Putting the funding to bed will in itself be another milestone.

Catalysts. Existing 6.5Moz @ 2.37g/t AuEq Telfer Type/IRGS system
• 2.9Moz @ 3.0g/t AuEq high-grade reserve could lift to 9Moz SCPe on infill and roots
• Reserve increases could support elevated 6-9Mtpa for long-life Tier 1 asset
• Potential SCPe 6Moz caveable material adds optionality above this
• Newcrest existing mill / staff offers production without (plant) build risk
• Ex Northern Star / Fortescue team could use this as springboard for future growth
Catalysts
• 2023: Debt funding executed
• 1H23: Newcrest BFS to show valuation on 3Mtpa scenario
• CY24: First gold
Research
Brock Salier (London) M: +44 74

Bankable feasibility study (BFS): A BFS represents a base case for financiers. A positive BFS is one that satisfactorily provides all of the information necessary for a bank to determine that the project is viable.

Previous comment “Hopefully IDE won't approve any additional borrowings from Mxc that could be later converted to more equity. Given they own most of the company now, there should be some regulation to prevent that from happening - else it would just be giving them a licence to print their own money.”

I don’t think any loan from Mxc is restricted by regulation, as long as they deal with it as on previous occasions, and subsequent conversion to shares would require another such declaration ( possibly also with takeover panel consent, as just done this time)

“MXC Capital is deemed to be a related party of the Company pursuant to the AIM Rules for Companies (the "AIM Rules") as they are a substantial shareholder and because Ian Smith, CEO of MXC is Executive Director of IDE.
 
Andy Parker, being the sole independent director for these purposes considers, having consulted with the Company's nominated adviser, finnCap, that the terms of the related party transaction are fair and reasonable insofar as the shareholders of the Company are concerned.”

But ignoring technicalities, it becomes even stranger than now for a publicly listed company.

I have no interest in that here. Nothing notified, and what would they be following anyway?
Little article. https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/227969/the-most-shorted-stocks-on-the-ftse.aspx

In my opinion Mxc won’t sell any shares. It would send a terrible message, stifling any buying, and erode their own share price. I don’t think they need the cash unless things have changed, they’re in the process of slowly taking Mxc to a winding up position, during which cash from asset sales is being returned to shareholders by tender offer and share cancellation.
As I see it, the sensible option for Smith and Wheeler and Mxc concert party is to get rid of IDE in one hit, one way or another at what they consider the appropriate time for them.
Acquisitions are mentioned, so I do wonder where the cash will be found to support that. The cynical part of me suspects Mxc will milk this if they can to get all the money back they put in - that’s what they told their shareholders, though not in those words. And the partners only have shares in Mxc, not IDE.
But it can come good for pi’s too, on their shirt-tails, as they build it up prior to sale, and we know the float is such and have seen it before when it can do big movements on news. It won’t take much to shift the price if they can pull something off.
I can still see the possibility of this going private, it would need to to wrap it in with say MXLG, and it’s got very easy to do now. Despite what they say.
I’m a lot more optimistic than I’ve been for years - not hard to say that of course.
In the position anyway of something happening here. From the owners’ viewpoint, it has to.

He said ‘we’re getting to ore’. Not we’re getting it out.

Off the top of my head there is a difference in timescales between reaching the first ore, and getting it out in one way or another, dependent upon the feasibility study and the mining plan.

Sorry. Wrong one.
The S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI was revised slightly higher to 46.2 in October 2022 from a preliminary estimate of 45.8, but still pointing to the steepest pace of contraction in the sector since May 2020. New orders dropped the most in two-and-a-half years, with new export business decreasing for the ninth month running, on the back of weaker domestic and external demand, already high stock levels at clients, subdued client confidence and inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, employment declined for the first time since December 2020 and input buying volumes fell for the fourth month running and to the greatest extent in almost two-and-a-half years. On the price front, both input costs and output charges rose at above survey-average rates, but eased slightly from September. Looking ahead, business optimism dipped to a two-and-a-half year low, as weak demand, recession fears, inflationary pressures and rising uncertainty hit confidence. source: Markit Economics

The S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI rose to 52.3 in September 2022 from 49.2 in the previous month, easily beating market expectations of 48.0 and signaling a modest overall increase in construction output. House building growth hit a five-month high, while commercial work increased only marginally and civil engineering activity fell for a third consecutive month. Meanwhile, new business volumes were broadly unchanged overall, which represented the worst month for new orders for almost two-and-a-half years. source: Markit Economics

I think Tattarang, the holding company for Wyloo, has 30 or so % in Fortescue Metals. I do not think FM is the parent company of Wyloo.

Tribeca, Wyloo thought it was worth 8.2p. They will all be looking at the price - it will ideally have to improve to make sense of any future if and when equity fund raise.
Otherwise it really begins to look like a failure for Mr. Day and the board. Not how they want to take this forward at all.

Wish I could. It’s them out there that need convincing.

Mms have no interest other than making money on the spread. 7p or 70p, all the same to them.

Yes. Allen and Overy made a few bob. And then use things for advertising. Usual stuff.