Member Info for Culpepper

Yes. I am taking the view a DTM has effectively been made by Newcrest as well as Ggp, and will likely be RNS’d this year. I do not see any merit in Newmont messing with that, whether they might want to divest or retain, and with them not getting the reins if it’s voted through until year end, I think a FMV transaction is unlikely.

I can’t find original text, if it exists, re. a sale of Newmont’s 70%. However, I remember going down this road before, in consequence of which Dip posted, thankyou :-

“Hi CP - I recall that:

-Shaun informed us we have a LAST right of refusal on NCM's 70% stake in Havieron when a few peeps had been emailing the company and received a reply

- and that Newmont buying out NCM wouldn't result in an automatic opportunity to buy the rest of Havieron

Also thing that he general consensus was that:

- First refusal means you have the first option to buy the asset without anyone else getting involved

- Last refusal means that if the asset gets put up for sale then you can match the highest bid and purchase instead.”

Ace. No more knowledge about anything than anyone else.

On another post, I may have missed something but don’t know why it’s considered Newmont look increasingly likely to divest Telfer than they did last week.

I think, but stand to be corrected, the fair market value comes into it on a decision not to mine basis, and not on a sale of H holdings for any other reason. If anybody can post those references, it would be helpful.

Provided Newmont want to sell at that price.

I believe, in perspective, Ggp has the right to match any third party bid, and be accepted.

Thanks. This is the relevant bit and link.

Any improvement in demand for new homes would be welcomed by the wider industry, with builders’ merchants’ shares having endured a torrid couple of years as inflationary pressures also weakened demand in the home improvements market.

Marshalls (MSLH) shares currently trade 66 per cent below their two-year high, while Wickes (WIX) and Travis Perkins (TPK) shares are 56 per cent and 51 per cent lower, respectively, than their peaks over the same timeframe.

However, despite dire forecasts from the Construction Products Association of a 6.4 per cent contraction in output this year, with private housing activity to shrink by 17 per cent, earnings in the sector have largely held up, Carberry added.

Private equity has been active in this market, too – either through buying divisions from listed firms or taking stakes in them – Clayton Dubilier & Rice (CD&R) currently owns 28.9 per cent of insulation specialist SIG (SHI).

“I’m surprised we haven’t seen more private equity interest. The cost of debt for them at the moment is obviously making life a little more challenging... but it’s definitely a theme to follow in 2023,” Carberry argued.

Lewis sees Crest Nicholson as the most vulnerable housebuilder to a potential bid, given its lowly valuation and small size. Redrow (RDW) shares’ 16 per cent discount to book value could also make it a target, although founder Steve Morgan’s 17 per cent stake gives him sway.

For the merchants, CD&R’s stake in SIG raises the potential for an outright bid. Potential buyers might also see value in Travis Perkins, given that the book value of its property portfolio is only around half of its market value of about £1bn, according to Peel Hunt.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2023/05/31/housebuilders-private-equity-s-next-target/

I think it’s a case of whatever. All that would have come into the equation when assets were considered by Newmont during due diligence, and we have no idea what value was placed on them, including future decommissioning costs, when a valuation was agreed. Or what price was put on Newcrest’s 70% of the JV.

But as Dip points out, Mr. Day has indicated he no longer foresees Newmont divesting Hav or Telfer, so on that basis there’s no change. In my view, Mr. Day has decided to take the heat out of

the Newmont possible disposal scenario.

Dip. As an aside, it seems to me that if continued access to Telfer processing did not form part of the JV agreement, it was a gross oversight by previous management and legal.

I just basically wonder whether it’s right to write Telfer off in the way some seem to have it on here, in terms of value, especially in such a said to be highly prospective region, long term, and with Hav coming online so soon in mining time scales, though it won’t be operating near capacity. Of course, we don’t know what Newmont paid for it. Maybe it was a dollar!

Well, that’s the way Newcrest were looking at it, running it on waiting on Hav.

‘Telfer is the largest processing facility in the Paterson Province and has sufficient capacity and capability to process other discoveries in this region. Newcrest believes that the Paterson Province presents significant additional opportunities for Telfer in the future.’

I think one can see the prospects of further finds arising from the Rio Tinto tie up, which although far away from mining, may also fall to Telfer processing, with I believe only 2% or so of the referenced Paterson ground having been ‘looked at’.

My impression, and that is all, is that historically Rio came into gold basically as a by-product of their activities, and now may be seeking to progress into the gold plus category. Those that follow their activities more closely will put me right.

On the question of processing plants, and again I can be put right, I can imagine there would be a whole lot of hassle through necessary consents, expense, build, to get new ones into operation - upgrading Telfer with all its infrastructure in place would seem a sensible future option, at least.

The starting point with the reset and valuations arising on different Newcrest assets as part of the Newmont deal, will be what Newmont consider the 70% H and Telfer is, will be, worth to them over many years ( and whether it sits well as part of a future developing portfolio )

Yet did not Mr. Day put a figure out there on what he would have been prepared to pay for the 5% at the time of that affair? Not so low.

Exercise of options resulting in increased share ownership.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/GGP/exercise-of-options-and-director-dealing-m35ct7z5m07qozk.html

Not to me, nor Telfer with what’s been going on in the region for some time. And H is so near production. But give it maybe 18 months and Newmont’s view will have become clearer.

It’s a computer gismo, isn’t it?

Appreciating the latest moves, it remains a question of time frames for me. Good luck to those looking forward to progress over the years. I can only realistically look to H production, and I hope FCF ( dependent on what else Mr. Day has in mind)

So Mr. Day, taken at face value, knowing or believing more than we are able, thinks Newmont will want to keep 70% Hav and Telfer, so business as usual whilst more ground to continue exploring. Open minded on the prospect of someone wanting Hav, and will take it as it comes. Basically as you were, but a view from the horse’s mouth. Realistic, down to earth after emphasis on everything being in play ( still might be, I suppose ) and suits me fine, though I would prefer ideally a Ggp cash buyout.

I think you must be right from whatever side you look at it. All these things come down to an assessment of opportunity, and considered best value for money.