Member Info for Culley01

@lordy. I suspect the factual news will point in the right direction but the commentators won’t bother to read beyond the headlines which I expect to be somewhat dismal because of all the one offs. As a result I’m anticipating a flat or even falling SP but the fireworks will begin in 2024 starting with the Y/E results which should also comment on first 1/4 trading with the real lift coming in August with the haly year trading figures

I think the December statement figures will lead to a reduction in the SP & a final buying opportunity before the half year figures. There are several one offs to be announced not least the latest ( very welcome sale) which will have all of the costs included in the Y/E figures but none of the proceeds as these won’t be received for several months.

On the plus side this should take care of the exceptional costs and lead to a very positive set of half year results

I’m not getting too excited about results. Although I expect the underlying trend to be positive it will be overshadowed by the one offs.

I expect some fireworks on the half year figures as a result of Alphonso’s input, the dropping out of the figures of the one offs & the £60m reduction in operating costs. At that point I would be hoping for north of 50p

I don’t think JL did a bad job (yes bad for shareholders but the company was in a mess) but what gets me is the time he’s taken. 5 years & looks like another couple of years before things are really sorted. All the one offs should have been finished a year or two ago & we should now be showing growing free cash flow after all exceptional costs

If it was 6% profit at £40m saving hopefully at £60m savings we may be looking at 7%.

At £3b turnover that’s £210m once all the costs/ one offs etc work out of the system.

Adolpho should improve things further so to me looks pretty positive

Adolpho has timed his entry perfectly

The Y/E results will have been announced in the December update & I don’t expect them to be that good but it should be the end of any major one offs. From then on I do hope & expect for a substantial rise.

I trust we will get some positive statements, hopefully a substantial share purchase by Adolpho & some really good half year results

My calcs are fairly simple.

Assuming T/O at £3b & 6% profit (contracts are meant to be between 5% & 10% & should improve with Adolphos input) this gives us £180m profit. Value at 10X gives us £1.8b against the current £280m a 7X uplift to around £1.10 give it a year or two & that’s where we’ll be

Apart from having an occasional peep at the postings I’m switching off until Half year results in August. I don’t think the year end is going to be anything much & until all the one offs ( & let’s hope there aren’t any more) drop off & FCF really happens I’m afraid this is going anywhere much. However by half year Alphonso will hopefully have made his mark & figures should look a lot better. I still think this should make £1 but probably 3 years down the line.

@smallwheel CPIs SP movements are a mystery to all however I think it boils down to the fact that JL ( the CEO) has been promising much for so long & not delivered that until positive figures are reflected in the accounts this is stuck. However I would add that it should now be in a good position with minimal debt, simplification & a new CEO with a track record in AI ( which is what CPI needs). Also to give JL his due new contracts taken on are with a reasonable profit margin & he has reduced debt substantially

If I was able to enter at this level I would grab the opportunity

Glow I don’t think it really matters how he bought them & any effect on the price would be minimal. What matters to me is that he has demonstrated some faith in the company & it’s prospects

@Trisor. Yes I’m for it I’ve got just over 600,000

& I should add that all new & existing (if they want to keep their jobs) board members have their salary/ bonuses linked to the share price in future. They might pay a bit more attention then

The strategy the BOD of just not saying anything regardless of the mayhem going on with this share is not acceptable.

They need a clear positive statement which, if the half year accounts are to be believed, shouldn’t be a problem.

However if there is some massive problem in the background they need to come clean on this too.

I agree with other posters that it’s time for JL to go (after all he says his job is completed so why hang on) & let Alphonso have a go at sorting out the mess which should include sacking most of the board & the chairman

Unfortunately the board seem blissfully unaware that the company is owned by shareholders who have invested because they are looking for a profit on their investment.

My only slight encouragement is that the IIs seem to be still sticking with this even though they are facing massive losses.

Takeover or anything to shake this out of it’s slow slide down. If this carries on we will be in single figures when only a few months ago we were looking at 30p & rising.

The Board as mentioned elsewhere need to get their act together & if not Alphonso needs to sack most of them.

@Trenners

Yes it’s going to be long slog.

Unless the full year results are better than expected I think it’s going to be half year 2024 when the one offs are out of the picture (as long as more one offs don’t emerge), all sales are completed ( hopefully this year) & Alphonso starts to make his mark.

It’s the constant one offs & unforeseen? capital costs which seem to keep arising has me worried. How come with losing a contract you have to pay compensation! I can only assume it was won on the basis that once finished employees will be transferred back into the existing pension with costs to be met by Capita. One wonders how many more there are.

& now we’re hoping that Alphonso is going to do the turnaround that JL has been doing for 5 years which he says is completed is spite of the fact CPI seems incapable of producing Free Cash Flow.

I’ve been an optimistic & patient long term holder but I must admit I’m beginning to despair.

There seems to be no will to talk up the share price by holding presentations etc.

I’m hoping that Adolpho has done some research before joining Capita & feels confident that he’s not joining a sinking ship but one that he can make a positive mark on.

I too am worried about these never ending one off costs.

I’m also concerned that they have borrowed £100m or so at a high interest rate when we were under the impression that sales would reduce debt to nil.

It seems that the proceeds of sales are wiped out by costs & one offs. What happens when there’s nothing to sell

As stated by various other posters the concern is the one off costs which seem to keep repeating themselves.

If I could be confident that a transformation is really complete I’d be happy but the market has doubts.

We need a complete year’s accounts showing £100/£150m actual profit without any one offs.

At the earliest this is Y/E 2024

If achieved & dividends reinstated the share will be 60/100p but if is the big question

Long wait I’m afraid before any meaningful uplift.

Dividends needed I I can’t see them before second half 2024.

End of year 2023 accounts should finish the one offs.

By half year 2024 we should have the benefit of no more one offs ( fingers tightly crossed)

No more pension provision

No more hack costs

Efficiency savings of around £40m

Increased margins

That should give projected profits for Y/E 2024 around £150m without any distortions.

Then I would expect to see a minimum of 50p & rising.

The worry is the one offs.

We’ve had pension provision £300m or so, hack £25m, abandoned computer upgrade £50m, etc. my worry is yet again something will appear.

Hopefully the new CEO will be here to give shareholders something to encourage them.

I am at least comforted by the fact that the IIs are still largely holding firm & they had bought in at up to 45p or so a couple of years back

Given the high volumes over the last few days & the apparent excess of buys over sells could it be that CPI are delivering a brilliant coup & starting to exercise the buy back at bargain basement levels.

On second thoughts that’s probably wishful thinking but it would be a good strategy