Member Info for Culley01

Market cap £210m

6% return on £3b = £180m

7% return on £3b = £210m

Either going bust or in 3 years looking at 10X current SP

One of my many worries was why did they need to take on £100m debt at 10% when anyone else could get it at 3-4%

@NoFear re the reduction in shares that would be a good question to ask Investor Relations

This is either going bust or is an absolute steel of a price.

Having been consistently misled by JL about the true position I’m cautious but I don’t believe AH would have taken on a dead duck unless the situation was totally misrepresented to him, but hopefully his own due diligence would ensure he had a pretty godd idea of what he was taking on.

One very relevant point made by AH was that many existing contracts are tailor made & as such expensive to design & run. He is going to simply the process by having 90% of the contract on a standard basis with the fine tuning to individual contracts carried out in the last 10%.

This should make contracts simpler & cheaper to design & run, reduces duplication, enables margins to improve & widens the scope for bidding for new contracts as well as reducing headcount.

At present re CPI instead of the market looking forwards 1-2 years it’s looking backwards 1 year. So effectively we have a 3 year difference in comparison to most of the market

Once FCF is achieved & hopefully debts reduced to relatively insignificant levels then I believe the market will start to look at CPI in terms of growth

So if FCF achieved in 2025 the market should be anticipating a growing profitability in the coming years which will have a dramatic influence on the SP

@Divan

Interesting that cost of running automation/AI is so high.

Not knowing the figures I would have assumed savings were greater than 1/3 of a salary bearing in mind no need to pay holidays,pensions,sick pay, National insurance, Human Resources etc

I understand the scepticism re CPI & having believed that JI was an upfront guy & being disillusioned on that I also have a worry re AH. So far everything is pointing in the right direction & if JL wasn’t his predecessor I wouldn’t be concerned but having been led up the garden path by JL I’m just very wary

@Trenners I decided to trade around 100k shares whilst keeping the majority for the long term (& I’m now resigned to waiting until August 2025 for a meaningful upgrade in the SP)

If I can make a few thousand every few months it’ll take the sting out of the long wait

@Trenners If you thought CPI was good value (which I & many IIs did) at 25p or higher with JL at the helm think how much better it is with AH at the helm & an even lower entry price for those topping up or lucky new entrants

Also as AH pointed out the work has already begun. He’s not spending a year evaluating the situation but is just getting on with it

I felt that was a very encouraging presentation, accepting the fact that there needs to be massive improvement & the will & proven ability to deliver.

Much more realistic & no b…..t that we had with JL

You can submit questions during the seminar once you’ve heard what has been said

@Trisor as far as I can understand they are not unallocated shares so CPI would need to buy shares on the market to give to AH & as NoFear pointed out they have probably already done so

Presumably CPI have to buy shares in the market to give to him?

Rather than wait for the various dates to arrive CPI would do better buying them now (@ 13p (a good discount to the 19p calculation) & handing them out on the respective dates.

(When prices will hopefully be much higher)

Or have I misunderstood things? No doubt someone will tell me!

Kiss of death I’m afraid

I just had a buy order completed for 70k shares at 13.52 so if it follows my usual buy history it’ll drop like a stone.

Maybe just for once it won’t

@Wildcat yes I think that sums it up pretty well.

Unfortunately in the meantime because of the false financial picture painted by JL trust has been totally lost in management statements & until projections are demonstrated by results I think we will continue to flounder.

This looks to be. August 2025 (not 2024 unless AH pulls off a miracle).

Everyone seems to be forgetting the Yellowstone update/ seminar in a couple of weeks where I would expect AH to be present & there is a question/answer session at the end

I think we’re all so p**** d off with JL that AH is getting tarred with the same brush which is totally unfair. He’s been here a couple of months announced £100m cost cutting, made an investment & indicated he has plenty of ideas to make CPI a profitable business. The fact that it’s still 1-2 years off isn’t his fault it’s JLs who just dodged any cost cutting , apart from a £60m exercise which I suspect was partly on AHs initiative

After JLs disastrous management I’m reminding myself of the positives which unfortunately aren’t really going to show for 12/18 months

£60m cost savings JL

£100m cost saving AH

£20m not needed in pension from 2015 on

£25m not needed for data leak from 2015 on

£30m (my guess) from improving margin on turnover by 1%

So a £235m saving with hopefully other improvements

But there’s not long to go before the rebuild is complete