Member Info for Culley01

I don’t think anything will move the price upwards substantially & permanently until we have:

Free Cash Flow

Dividends

& nil or very low debt.

Contract wins, a purchase by AH of shares etc will only have a temporary & marginal effect

I think we may have to wait until Y/E although I hope the 6 months results may give a boost to the SP

Unless we get some very positive plans/statement from AH I don’t see anything much happening until the August 1/2 year results ( where I do hope to see some dramatic improvement & positive Cash Flow). Even the Y/E results, unless they come out much better than expected, aren’t likely to have much impact

It’s good to see that the long neglected Shareholders are now to have their lot improved.

A very positive first day’s statement hopefully to be followed shortly with some action.

I’m encouraged by reading up on Adolpho’s profile where he appears to get results in a relatively short time frame.

I do believe he is exactly the right choice for CPI in it’s current phase of development

Time of course will tell but it’s looking good for 2024

The only basis for the £5m figure I can see is that if all 5000 claimants received £1000 each.

Presumably this figure is in the hope that Capita will pay up (which I’m sure they won’t) just to avoid the hassle.

Of course if they did pay up it would open the floodgates which is why they will contest it.

@Simpliles

I take a bit of comfort from this.

One of my worries was that increasingly labour dominated councils would take back work ‘in house’ on the basis that more people could be employed & the council ( together with senior managements salaries etc ) expanded on the justification that it would save costs ( as we know this is unlikely to be the case).

Hopefully this might give cause for a rethink.

Thanks got out.

I have to say I agree with the analysis saying they don’t expect FCF & dividends until 2025 but I believe if we get clear & positive statements from AH the SP should recover before then.

As pointed out once we really are on the right track FCF could be around the £150/£200m (maybe Y/E 2026) & that should give significant upside but at the moment it’s all speculation.

Having had 5 years of JLs restructuring I just hope Adolpho doesn’t come in & announce it will be another 3 years.

He needs to delver ( & to be seen to be delivering) pronto.

Plenty of announcements please of aims, time frames, when TFC is to be delivered, dividend reinstatement date etc

The potential is there but until we see accounts showing FCF followed by an announcement re dividends this will drift.

New contracts, reduced costs etc are positive but without FCF & Dividends will have limited effect.

I’m also hoping Y/E accounts will confirm nil debt (excluding leases) as previously indicated by JL but I won’t be surprised if that target hasn’t slipped as well.

I’m hoping that the August 1/2 year statement will confirm the above & if so then it really will motor on.

@Trustfund. if all goes well in the next year or so perhaps they should consider a US listing

I think AH will take a bit of time to come up with a strategy statement ( although no doubt he’s already worked out a policy) possibly combined with Y/E results or around that time. It would give him 6 weeks or so to get to know the ins & outs of CPI.

Hopefully the market will have a small positive reaction to his start but when a strategy is announced I would hope to see a marked improvement in the SP & hopefully followed by another leg up with half year results in August revisiting or hopefully surpassing the 45p highs seen last year

I really don’t understand why everyone doesn’t just filter Aim & their like.

If you can’t see their asinine comments you can’t reply & it’s only the reply’s that encourage them to keep posting

Working on from those figures to match Serco we could reduce labour force by 20% or increase T/O by 20% with the same labour force.

20% decrease in labour is around 8000 employees which is a significant cost saving

Lots of options & potential

Thanks Time2buy good article & nice to see a positive view from an analyst.

More than 3X is pushing up towards 70p which is more like it & a realistic target for the medium term

Which year were you thinking of Elphi

Happy Christmas everyone & that was a positive few days after the update.

I was expecting a pull back so pleasantly surprised & looking forward to 2024.

To be fair to JL he has given Alphonso a great base to start from with A1 already being integrated & no need to concentrate on rationalising the business. Hopefully Alphonso will hit the ground running.

Pleasantly surprised to see the SP holding well after what I consider a fairly insipid report. Effectively reiterated what had already been announced but short on figures.

The AI introduction as stated by others should be a game changer.

For instance 2000 staff reduction at £50k each ( I’m not sure of average salary but whatever the actual figures the principle remains) is £100m saving & out of 52000 current level that can’t be too difficult

Thanks Hexam

What I find hard to understand is why, if margins were 2.9% & targeted to rise to 6% the figures are so dismal. The statement infers overall outflow of £100m. 2.9% of just over £3b is £90m profit & a £100m outflow so logically exceptional costs must be £190m which I find hard to believe. If someone can put my maths right please do so,