Member Info for Culley01

Why are posts discussing a RNS issued about BT.

I thought this board was about Capita but reading some of the posts may I’m mistaken

I don’t think an RNS is going to make much difference unless it’s for a massive contract win.

We need Dividends + FCF or an announcement (which I think could come with the December update) that that the above will need be restarted in 2025

Looking at the analysts concensous 2025 & 2026 FCF are £16m & £34m ( I think)

This seems rather pessimistic given the cost cuts announced & the improvement expected in margins + the fact that all the one offs should be out of the way.

Any thoughts on this ? - Simpiles as an ex insider I’d especially appreciate your comments

Trisor I’ve not read keyboards posts but you’re talking about a £2.4b T/O. At 7% ( mid target projection) that’s a £170m profit which at 10X gives a £1.7b company valuation. That’ll do for me.

Re Capita’s market perception I believe that the market is effective looking backwards 2-3 years when valuing this.i.e. It’s based on the lousy past results.

In theory the market is meant to be forward looking i.e. how is CPI going to look in a couple of years. Once this happens (& my guess is August results or possibly Dec statement if v positive) the SP should rocket

I’ve only got 2 people green filtered & there’s more green on my board than anything else

Quick summary of upcoming events which may impact SP

Yellowstone presentation 23/09

End Dec trading update - Y/E summary

March Y/E results

May/June AGM Trading update

August half year summary

+ any other one off events/ announcements

Doesn’t apply to anyone invested in shares

Until we get Dividends +FCF from earnings then this won’t move upwards on a sustainable basis. As this isn’t due until August 2025 more patience is needed.

A statement announcing the above would of course help speed up the process & we could get this in the December update.

Anything else will just generate small moves

Please can we stop rubbishing each other & get back to commenting on Capita.

As said many times if you don’t like someone’s posts just green flag them & then you won’t see them and won’t get annoyed

I really don’t understand why anyone wants to read JOs posts & then respond to him/ her it only adds encouragement for more nonsense. Just green flag & get back to sensible discussions re Capita

The value is there & hopefully a target of £1 is not crazy.

If we can get to 40p+ with the December update(& possibly the Yellowstone presentation might have some good news) followed by 60p + with August 1/2 year figures I’d be very happy.

Also Y/E figures in March may be better than initially forcast

I would hope that seeing quite a few big investors are in at 50p + that no bids under 60p are considered if indeed anyone does bid which I doubt.

Due to the nature of the government contracts I wouldn’t have thought a foreign bidder (. & they’re the ones with the money) would be acceptable

I used to be a financial advisor & the most important advice to clients was what sector to choose. If you were in property when it was booming then it becomes less important to choose the right company as the whole sector moves up. Conversely even if you choose a marvellous company in a sector out of favour it’s hard to make money

Just think of the vote winners for KS. Public sector workers on 1 day/week on full pay WFH.

I suspect that there won’t be any definitive statement saying no blame just we will hear if they take it further

@Wednesday I agree CPI could well match Serco but I was interested in Simpiles time scales.

Serco has £220 m profit at a margin around 5%. We should be able to achieve that with a lower T/O than Serco as our margins are better & improving whereas Serco’s are static.

Personally I would guess 2-3 years but Simpiles has a much better idea than I have of how long to achieve this

@Simpiles

I hope you’re right on matching Serco short term but it does feel a tad optimistic.

Serco currently on £1.8b which would give us a 6X rise in SP.

How do you define sort term?

I appreciate you’ve got a lot more insight into CPI than most

Yellowstone update on Capita 23 September

As I’ve said before only the resumption of Dividends,FCF & sustainable profits will move this up on a permanent basis ( or, hopefully an announcement with the year end summary in December that all these will be happening in first half of 2025).

Once this happens SP will fly but until then we’ll drift, possibly the occasional positive announcement will give a temporary uplift