focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Capita at 50p (nearby the max price in the last 2.5 years), then valued at approx £800m manages to sell parts of the company for £800m & is left with what I hope is the best bit of the company now valued at less than £500m.
At the same time it manages to maintain T/O despite the sales & stop losses & produce profits.
Really the valuations defy logic
We have been told that although everything is on track results are geared towards the 2nd half.
Although the 6 monthly statement will hopefully bear this out there is a chance that a muted results statement will have a negative short term impact.
Until we get significant debt reduction (2nd half), a substantial disposal ( mentioned previously but nothing announced), increased profits (2 nd half) or a dividend announcement (probably 2023) I can’t see a significant rise.
Any one of the above could give the SP a boost but personally I think we will be awaiting Y/E.
I do think that the £1.00/£1.50 target mentioned by Sharehead in 1-2 years is achievable.
I’m not so optimistic.
We have been told that 2nd half of the year is where the figures will look good & although I suspect half year figures will be as previously indicted I think we’ll have to wait until year end for a major uplift.
I hope I’m wrong
I’m not expecting anything particularly exciting in results as we know already from the previous update what to expect.
Hopefully though seeing cash in hand figures (& I trust that in addition to the £200 m or so of sales we’ll have some profit as well) to be offset against loans may help.
We really need another disposal &/ or resumption of dividends.
I think we could well mirror Serco but I would say we are 2-3 years behind in the turnaround process. Serco have been paying dividends for 2 years.
Also when calculating a share price comparison there are more CPI shares than Serco so one would expect a lower share price, say £1.20 to Serco’s £1.80 current price.
However that does give a very substantial potential upside over the next couple of years.
Keeping my fingers crossed here.
If we have a good couple of weeks before results we may be over 30p and with some decent figures in the results we continue to rise up to the Y/E where I would hope to see 50p substantially breached
Having filtered AIM it’s amusing to see all the replies generated but personally I’d like to see some more balanced opinions.
Having placed a buy order for a 10% top up just under 25.00 p I’m half waiting for the price to drop a bit but pleased if it doesn’t for the other 90% of my CPI holdings (360,000).
Still think we’ll have to wait until year end for a significant move but very pleased with Jon Lewis statement .
Well done JG but I’m not into the short time trading although as in JGs case can be profitable.
The 10% spike at the beginning of the week was surprising & so we will drift again waiting for 6 months figures in August which I suspect will be pretty much in line with the update we’ve just had. Unless there is some very positive statement re debt levels I suspect we’ll all have to wait for Y/E where I do have some expectations of a good uplift.
Re dividends not starting until 2027 this is only Shore’s analysis.
Personally I think some statement re dividends resuming is likely with Y/E figures as if they are accumulating capitol from profits/disposals in excess of that needed to get pre IFRS debt to a sustainable level I see no reason for not reinstating dividends or a share buyback.
Re turnover we need to remember that Increased T/O ( although slight) is being achieved despite all the sales so once disposals are completed all the increased T/O will be going to the bottom line rather than replacing T/O lost through disposals.
The other positive aspect of RNS was the continued effort to reduce costs, & hence to increase profitability, especially in relation to property leases which will also reduce Post IFRS debt levels.
Pretty much as expected, nothing new but on track.I can’t see what prompted yesterday’s 10% rise unless there are rumours of a further large disposal or contract win.It will be interesting to see what today brings but I don’t expect real fireworks until Y/E results.Hope I’m wrong & it continues to rise