Member Info for cta100

Its trading very strange, almost as if OTC. Clearly a seller(s) who uses increased volume around news / results to offload, but try and buy in any size at market, by which mean over 100k, just can't get filled. Maybe the EBRD desk assistant likes to walk to the coffee machine on a regular basis... Selling is so price insensitive though, maybe that means nearly finished.

Company should probably use $1-2m cash to do a buy back, which is manageable from the $6m in the bank and the capex budget for next year. Doesn't impinge on operations and this needs a statement, but moreover action from the company to address the share price

Financials are reasonable, and in line with what would expect from romanian gas prices. That will come through more strongly in Q4 too.

Feels a bit light on detail for the plan forward though. Would have liked exit rates. And gas compression started in late Oct, with a 3 well drill program for H2 2022.

Market will probably take as reassuring but not amazing. Always difficult to tell.

Page 53 and 54 of the last annual report if want the full detail; isn't much info in the quarterlies for it. Short answer would be romanian gas is traded in local but oil usd, and from last year end to now their will be a reporting loss of ~$1.75m on foreign exchange as result of the leu weaking against the dollar from 0.25 to 0.23. Though that movement is pretty range bound for the last few years and doesn't strike me as immenient of a currency crisis.

Yes, if there is any delay or problem regarding the Q3 planned maintenance that should be formally communicated. Romanian nat gas was $10m of the $16m group revenue for the first half of the year, so it is definitely material, and given prices are about 3x higher for the second half to date it has only gone up. Even though the operational plan has been outlined in the interims, even if its all on course, they should just update to that effect.

Peculiar that the polish share price actually has a reasonable correlation to the TTF gas price but its negative in london over the last couple of months. Normally expect the more liquid market to be more accurate. Just goes to show the effect of the seller and the persistent disconnect.

Hope so, share price hasn't kept up with the oil price moves, get its more complicated than that, but a decent earnings report might move this out of laggard status.

Added another 2.5m, had to break down into chunks to get through, so the seller currently isn't there in the same size that was last week. Hopefully that is what surpressing the share price rather than any untoward news that is coming. If it is just the seller a pretty punchy rerate should be due sooner rather than later.

It was a junior trader at Odey who took the position, and lost his job because of it. And the whole trying to get dividends / cash back out the premium account was part of their attempt to unwind at minimal loss by the portfolio unwind team.

I would agree that the EBRD shares are being forward sold. Isn't anything else that stacks up with the TR1s. Just added another 2.5m shares and flew through with the broker at pretty much mid, a few months ago that would have to have gone negotiated, so definitely an offloader there. But they will finish and then the reversion to a reasonable value can begin.

Yep, management's credibility is shot; the salaries won't be getting watered down, that is for sure.

Could be running an extended well test; lots of potential positive outcomes in there as to why taken longer than expected, although no deadline has actually been missed. They won't have lost the well, that would have to be RNS'd though technical delays are also a possibility.

Is just a lack of interest at the moment from the market. 2m volume is very light, below the recent daily average, and that is with a well RNS. If have more posts on a chat forum than trades something isn't right with the liquidity. The director remuneration fiasco may well still be causing an overhang. I understand investors becoming more sceptical and results rather than words based as a result, but even with actual results that isn't enough at the moment. Maybe this is just what happens when you irritate your investor base.

Everything may be moving in the right direction, except the share price... which significantly lags operational progress and underlying oil price. So why give the market the option to be sceptical by creating uncertainty by not providing a clear update? It is a relatively simple business, doesn't need to be this complicated to work out what has happened on the financial side. And the directors aren't exactly in the shareholders good books. $2.5m is as meaningful amount, similar in size to the Hibiscus payment. The share price is lagging for a reason.

The capex costs are clearly laid out and funded out of cashflow. But with rising production and significant oil price move upwards, you would expect the cash balance to start ticking up. There is still a $2.5m unexplained cash outgoing from today's RNS, and whilst it is an trading update rather than full set of financials, that should be explained. It could well be debt repayment, or movement in working capital, but needs to be clarified otherwise assumption will be going into directors pockets (through wages not anything untoward).

Cash at Dec 20: $2.2m
Cash collected: +$8.2m
Capital expenditure: -$3.0m
Production costs and admin: -$2.9m
Expected cash at Jun 21: $4.5m

Given actual cash is $2.0m is a short fall of $2.5m.
Is either current loan repayment of $2.1m, change in trade payables of $2.2m or increase in wage and production costs, or combination of above. The hedging is fair value and fx moves not significant so won't be those two over the period.

This is a case study in how not to not do a fundraising.
There is long term value if you can ride out any short term pain, and don't mind being kept in the dark about what is going on.

The RKH overhang would have largely cleared in the last run up from 3 to 6p and back down. Of course their may still be a bit of secondary churn going on, but I think you are probably just seeing increased selling for other reasons (director transactions and sector sentiment being the main ones).

Any idea how long they are going to run the well test for?

But it is what was has caused the recent price action, so its relevant. And its only recently happened so people will still be annoyed about it and venting.

They have an obligation under the old covs to raise if breach (presumably rolled on in some form in the new ones if don't make repayment schedule). So that is why mentioning it I think, as its an obligation. They also say that sub debt can be used to pay off the facility though, and that is an express term in the new facility. Whether they can get that is a different matter.

And whilst the new ceo has experience of bricks and mortar going down, so will clearly aware of the online need, he also will have been through the ringer with creditors before so will have experience of that.