Member Info for cta100

The share price performance today is obviously underwhelming, but there is some decent news in there. The actual netbacks in Romania are pretty decent given the windfall tax, and feeding through to a meaningful bottom line, and that will kick on further for Q1 and rest of 2022, especially as local prices have converged with TTF. Got impression that know undervalued on UK market, but don't want to do a big buy back as looking to do a decent sizedRomanian campaign later this year and trying to get a more liberal structure for that, so want to be seen putting cash into that and not shareholder returns.

It is 17p in Poland. Soon the cash balance will be the same as UK mcap and market won't be able to ignore that forever so just a waiting game. The operational side needs to improve though in terms of getting stuff done on the ground quicker.

The netbacks, especially for Romania have come in strong, so will be a fair bit more to come from Q1 / 2022. Solid set of financials all round. If can get the ops side streamlined then it could be $30-40m net for current year.

Slow burner at the moment, hopefully just the last of the fuse before lift off

Gas up 1000% on 1y, Oil up 80%, Senx share price down 50%...

Yep, could do with getting the skates on now...

Take your point, but if aggregate client accounts how has it gone 0% to 4% overnight, just at exactly the same time as the EBRD deal? 44m is large volume for this stock, and not seeing that come through from other spread providers so would maintain it is effectively a single transaction.

The Spreadex 4% is a CFD rather than actual shares. The platform is long 4%, which is the notification, but that means they have a customer that is short 4%. Given the dates are the same as EBRD trade I suspect a private investor who knew the EBRD are selling tried to make some money on the side by shorting it in advance.

The other recent TR1s don't show any CFDs so it is unlikely they are hedges as part of the EBRD workout, unless they have been published yet.

Its really not that complicated. The EBRD sold 112m shares to a broker. Who then sold 90m shares on in one lot and offloaded the remaining 20m in a handful of trades.

That 90m may well have been to Senx, as authorised to buy up 10% of the shares. Which given already bought about 15m from the buy back a month or so ago - that would take you the 10%...

Could well be somebody else, but talk of private equity is barking up the wrong tree. The mcap is just too small for them to get out of bed for.

It's the EBRD who have to notify, not the company. And whoever bought them. It isn't unusual for the TR1s to come out days afterwards.

A buyer must have been lined up to get that away at effectively bid price. Wouldn't surprise me if company is purchaser; the buy backs stopped soon after started and that might have been to preserve the 10% authority which is the same as the EBRD holding size. Will find out soon enough, but a material overhang is out the way.

I think that compressor "news" in report might be what sparked the sp / volume a couple of weeks or so ago. Maybe not but something did, and posting links all over a bulletin board doesn't generate that level of activity as can be seen from this morning.

The board forgot to include debt repayments in the cash summary at the previous presentation update (as in the one before one just had). Once those were included the cash position stacked up, maybe that has happened again? But you don't need to be able to do a full reconciliation to understand that too much money is going in directors salary for the production levels, and that the capex loop required is a concern given the current production drop off. The transparency is poor, exit rates announced when good, but not when are needed - the market no longer gives benefit of the doubt due to recent track record.

It is a reach announcement, so just pr / the soft stuff, rather than a formal rns. There has been real volume recently so one would still expect real news around the corner, probably in drift mode for a little bit until then, but beginning of a re-rate isn't a bad spot to be.

And the numbers from p53 of the 2020 report as they fell off the last message for some reason.

The Group has no commodity hedge program in place which could limit exposure to price risk. For the year ended 31 December 2020, a 5% change in the price of crude oil per bbl would have impacted revenue, net of royalties by $0.3 million (2019 - $0.3million) and a 5% change in the price of gas per mcf would have impacted revenue, net of royalties by $0.9 million (2019 - $0.8million).

p 53 of the annual report

COMMODITY PRICE RISK
The Group is exposed to commodity price risk in fluctuations in the price of oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. In Tunisia, oil prices are based on the terms of the Shell contract which reflects the market price of Brent crude oil. In Romania, there is no stated gas benchmark to track the market price, therefore the Company enters into monthly contracts with customers for a stated gas price for each month based on the Romanian gas trading activity.

The Group has no commodity hedge program in place which could limit exposure to price risk

The EBRD have exactly the same number of shares they used to have. The company has just bought back 16m shares so the EBRD holding has gone from 9.9 % to smidge over 10% - thats it. But it confirms they definitely have been the recent seller.

The EU are currently considering whether to give nuclear and gas ESG / green status as part of a "transition" review to net neutral. So at least there is acknowledgement that the current set up isn't working, even if it is wrapped up in political and consultant terminology.

The nuclear element will be to make the French happy. And for gas as long as a country has significant coal production then gas can be classed as green; which is pretty much the whole of eastern europe. That will probably allow for some decent investment in the space, so could be a meaningful tailwind if it comes through.

Yep, benchmark continental gas only up 1000% now year to date or around $350 barrel of oil equivalent, and forward curve over 100euro mwh out till 2023. Nordstream2 delayed until H2 next year, strikes at french nuclear plants. Surely even the European bureaucrats have to realise wind turbines and solar panels aren't cutting it and re-invigorate the E&P sector for improved energy independence.

Technically it is a share purchase (single transaction). So just the trade has to be notified. But the company currently has authority to go up to 10% of outstanding stock. A buy back is a pre-arranged program over a period of time, usually managed by broker, which also has to be announced.

When does a series of single purchases become a buy back? Its a technicality. But in practise the company is on the bid, with the emphasis to buy the stock back as cheaply as possible rather than to get a pop through a program announcement.

It will provide significant shareholder value anyway by clearing off some of the liquidity mismatch on the London Market.

The exact size isn't announced and pre committed to, which is the whole point of doing it this way.

Its debt free and commodity prices at historic highs. Just don't look at it on a daily basis and come back in 6 months, easier said than done though, especially if got liquidity concerns.

Messaged the company regarding implementing a $1-2m buy back and got standard response saying we have the option to purchase up to 10% of company equity and review this regularly. Not that would expect anything more than that to be said.

But hopefully someone gets on the bid. I am finished buying here now (20m over last 4 months) and the seller is still there in reasonable size going by the execution, so it might get a bit worse before gets better sp wise.