Member Info for cta100

If it is first thing in the morning, probably the case. Though I assume the market has largely priced in a waiver again so likely more of an uptick than re-rate in terms of scale. I don't think there is any additional chance tomorrow of the actual refinancing being announced beyond it being another day.

If late in the day might get some negative price action though due to the uncertainty. I tend to agree the package not yet being announced is probably more indicative of the cash forecasts being conservative, but it has been dragging on for while yet so might get some precautionary selling.

Will find out. Been very quiet volume and price wise last couple days so expect not. Encouraging open though.

It is difficult to say. The end timeline to raise equity due to the 3x leverage covenant was Jan-21, so that hasn't happened. And debt talks are ongoing. And even if refinance the facility without an equity element, it might still happen subsequently. RTN refinanced their facility on 1st Mar (£500m debt with no equity element) and then equity placed 10th Mar (for £175m). I can't believe that those weren't co-ordinated, but just announced seperately in an effort to increase the sp for the placing.

Yes, looks like the market has brushed it off, so likely a plant, and as note given the language and tone; as well as being pro moonpig and anti card. Cui bono and all that.

As long as there isn't a debt for equity swap this will do very nicely over the next 12 months; I am even comfortable with a reasonable RI, which think will happen if go with existing providers, but not if can find a new facility. So it is rather the critical point before can turn away and come back in a years time.

The article is probably more correct than not, the consultancy firms are very leaky, even more so than the corporate banks. But it still might not be the whole picture depending upon where the source sits. Apparently a UK bank was willing to put up 80mio at roughly 8% mid week but that looks like might have fallen through on Friday.

It doesn't explain why taking so long though. You talk to your existing and potential new lenders at the same time, it isn't a sequential process.

The article could just be a plant, wouldn't be the first one for the sunday times, but it should force the company to make an announcement tomorrow morning, at least in response to press speculation.

I don't get the part about distressed debt investors are said to be circulating, the debt isn't exhange traded, and if the talks have fallen through with other providers as per the article then there isn't much circling to be done.

Same. Was looking to average up today, but can't get any fills at market, even for relatively small sums.
So either broker is being useless or there isn't any liquidity at current price for some reason.

Although the budget announcement is obviously part of it, especially for yesterday, I don't see how it explains todays outpeformance against the comparison names that provided being;

Card (+22%), WRKS (+1%), HFD (+1%), AML (-1%), SDY (-1%), RTN (-5%).

So would maintain that there has been a leak on the financing side, and like RTN there isn't going to be a punitive equity cure as can just get another facility and pay the old one off existing bankers play too hardball.

Apparently there has been a half decent response to a tender for an alternative banking facility, so if the current negotiations are too punitive in terms of the equity cure there is a reasonable plan b.

It is a holding statement really, but from the tone and lack of detail I would say an equity raise in some form is coming. Of course depends on price and size what the effect on the sp will be, but needs to be cleared up quickly otherwise the recent gains will disappear.

The cov tests are monthly until June, then revert back to being quarterly.

The special divi was a mistake in hindsight, even excluding the pandemic. There is a billion mcap company here if just sort out the online offering, which really isn't that difficult to do, and shouldn't need a capital raise to expedite either. And just do any overseas business through JVs, wholesale tie ups.

Yes, I think they will re-open or at least get back to some profitable type of normality before have to do a cash call, hence why invested currently for a decent chunk. I am not too fussed about the covenants, the current ones in breach are temporary until June anway if remember correctly, so any cure period if the lenders got difficult would probably be drawn out until then anyhow, and its not in the creditors interest to be difficult anyway as the underlying business is profitable, so just expect a series of waivers.The vaccine program appears to be on track, which is assuring given how other government aspects of the pandemic have gone.

Was hopeful that the Moonpig valaution would draw some attention to this company, but that hasn't really happened. Their bankers have done a good job at getting it away at tech company type multiples even though isn't the case. Card just need to sort their online offering out, it isn't expensive or difficult to do even for an old school bricks and mortar company these days. But are being sluggish on that front, which in conjunction with the is there or isn't there going to be a RI or placement, must be what is holding the price back. But happy to take the risk currently as confident going to come out the other side in a better place, and this price in 6 to 12 months will look exceptionally cheap.

Have you applied for the ceo position? Its not that complicated to see what needs to be done.

It is what it is says on the tin - a long spread bet. Warrants would be disclosed in section 8B1 rather than 8B2. And the spread bet is cash settled. You have to disclose on aggregate interest in effect, and that includes spread bets, not just derivatives which can ultimately lead to a delivery of shares for voting perspective.

Don't think that is the case, would have leaked and be obvious in the recent share price activity. Would also be the sensible time to announce. I think it is genuinely case of wait and see when the shops reopen.

I take it as positive overall. Don't think a cash call is neccessarily a given.
The online business grew at 137%, that is the same rate as moonpig, and they are looking at a £1.5bn valuation... albeit card is from a lower base.

I am out today, but given how the sells flew through, wouldn't surprise me if something is happening, or about to auction to the upside

Is it, outside of the general high street picture, just the lack of a sizeable online presence that is really holding this back?

Decent volume for this time year today. It is generally thinly traded so a seller can hang around for a quite a while - I really don't think it is any more complicated than that or conspiracy based.

On those points agree, but the writedowns and guidance around future divi policy don't read well so think might be in for a markdown this am if anything.