Member Info for CrustyPete

Currently 16.17 - 16.45p for 30k (market size)

Agreed BB, take a look at "The Lassonde Curve" Fubar.....

Must dash now folks.

And about 6/7...

99% is the answer 😁

RJ, I think we are broadly in agreement, indeed even with your assertion that "but if a rise is expected on spudding of the first well, then surely now would be the better time to get in for any top ups or newby investments". My only point of divergeance would be that with a definitive date comes "certainty" and had we got that date today it might have given the certainty that got the newbies "over the line".; now we will have to wait a little bit longer for that date. However it is a minor point. I do also believe that most of the lth are already fully loaded and would not be buying on the basis of today's news; they had already accepted that it was a done deal and of no particular consequence.

Incidentally I do not expect the spudding of the next well to dramatically move the dial either but incremental sp rises on successive drills - no one of them will add hugely to the cash pile, nor therefore the future debt funding; it is the completion that will do that - the "whole" is a lot bigger than the "sum of its parts", in my view.

Finally on the subject of PR, or the lack of it - I suspect that right now the BoD's "audience" has changed dramatically after recent events and in the full expectation of imminent ML approval. They will surely be doing all they can to raise interest from potential Institutional Investors, JV partners and Debt funders and hence their attendance at the recent US trade convention and the forthcoming Tanzanian Mining seminar.... if so, I would excuse them somewhat from not being too hot on the PI audience at present.

Anyway one and all, I am due out for a friends birthday "lunch" very soon and may not be back! So that being the case I wish you all a wonderful weekend now.

My answer to that FSL was that what we saw in today's RNS was simple official confirmation of what the "market" was already expecting; another positive tick in the box but nothing that was ever going to "move the dial"; simply another another possible "blocker" successfully negotiated. It is what this facilitates that will get the sp moving - operational activity and with each drill getting us closer to "production".

I will also admit that I was hoping (not expecting) some more definitive news on when drilling would commence rather than the somewhat vague "Q4" commitment.... In that regard I do think (certainly hope) the forthcoming RNS regarding the official confirmation of the ML will be different in that it will come with a lot more information, operational and funding - if not that RNS might have a similar "damp squib" impact.

Yes in 6 months time, once the sp is a lot higher...

Apologies see here: https://www.linkedin.com/company/scancell-limited/posts/?feedView=all

Updated this morning

Take a look at the Scancell news page on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/

Apologies if this has been posted before

Same old tripe, different day and now a different name too...... Thankfully everyone here is fully loaded and awaiting the transition from explorer to producer. Yes, there may be the odd bump in the road but it WILL come and just a question of when and not if.

Still rolling out that same old "funding" cul-de-sac..... And that is the prime significance of today's announcement; it is the prelude for providing both the collateral and servicing for Debt funding for Rukwa, then to be followed by ML, FS and a JV... so lot's to happen before the BoD need (if even it does) to look at a cap raise by which time the sp will be a lot higher.

If you believe the supposed MM signals we could well see a dramatic increase in volumes today after that 800 UT trade......

I have always been very sceptical of such "wisdom" but it will be interesting to see.

Yes NandL successful application, meaning that they have successfully submitted the application. I would suggest that it does not necessarily mean that it has been approved.

I would not choose to argue Sambo; I do not have any serious doubt or concern that the CH1 and NT1 workover will get done - or at least initiated - before the end of 2025. And, since neither is imminent any delays will not affect the short term or, even longer term sp. ARA and AEX have plenty of wiggle room for both and no definitive "targets" to miss.... Conversely they are rapidly running out of that wiggle room if they are to hit that stated April production target -and that would likely be perceived as ARa/ AEX and TPDC overpromising and underdelivering yet again, with the usual consequences.

Let's hope they provide us with clarity and a date before now and Christmas and any wiggle room they still have evaporates...

GLA.

So fingers crossed that we get a Pipeline update very soon!

Sambo, my thoughts for what is is worth. I fully hope and expect taht we will get an operational update before the month's end but, my fear is that we might yet again see a "non-event" style update that creates more harm than good. What can they possibly say that will be perceived positively? Most of us believe and accept that they cannot or have not much to say on CH1 and, therefore NT1. Similarly w know that they cannot do anything on Kiliwani until some time after production and have sufficient income to progress that - I predicament made worse as a result of Orca's problems. So all we have is NT2.. But my view is that the JV will not want to progress the NT2 work programme until they are assured that they have a fairly concrete date for completion of the pipeline - why? because they would not want to put operational boots on the ground before they believe they can continue the NT2 work programme to conclude production. A process that will take weeks not months; the alternative is to mobilise a team to complete the work programme only then to lay them off and close the well down yet again with the additional costs associated with both. No, in my view they will want that to be a seamless transition and so will not start that NT2 work programme until they have that date for the Pipeline to be in situ and for production to start.

The risk therefore is that we will not get that (positive) Operational Update until the TPDC (with ARA's help) come out with a date for the commencement of that Pipeline build. Moreover if we do need to see that date soon and commencing before the end of December, in my view, that April production date is very much at risk. I cannot see a delay or a post January start date being received anything other than negatively.

If that were to happen then I fully expect to be buying below my average price - and we have what, 7/8 weeks left?

Elegance, fwiw, I can still see the post that I think you are referring to; 8/9th post on page 2.

Edgar, they haven't even identified a drill or got a drill contract in place - and that even ignores the received wisdom that we will be sharing a rig with M&P and the question of who gets first use.

So "no", not a hope that we will be drilling CH1 this side of Christmas - only 50?50 if we do so this side of next Christmas! Only joking 😉

I would be happy if we get news of NT2 workover this side of Christmas frankly. It would be better than the continued radio silence.

0.4bn not 0.4mn.

Yes Chesh exactly so, it is not a traditional basin and may prove very difficult to definitively "quantify"......

Well I can confirm that a Tanzanian mining JV ARA/AEX succeeded in getting a FFD license for a huge Natural Gas development in Ruvuma (Tanzania) without the anticipated need for a CPR on the assets. The TPDC and Energy Minister accepted the companies own 3D seismic interpretation with 3rd party corroboration.

And I accept that it is not directly comparable but offers a steer.