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The house broker downgraded its earnings forecast recently to MINUS 3p per share (about $5.4 m ?)for this year. A substantial $4 per kilo price rise for iodine would indicate only about a $2m reduction of those losses.

like they're in real trouble now. hTTp://www.*************.com/views/18648/wandisco-utterly-disastrous-trading-statement-when-s-bankruptcy

It isn't so much the debt build up since then that makes Dragon's offer irrelevant - it's the huge drop in oil price. As I indicated in my last post it's misleading to make out that the profitability of a company only falls in proportion to its revenues, as you do with your fantasy figure of 1.20p. I expect the banks will be fine about continuing the waivers as long as there's some prospect of progress re asset sales with AFREN they went on for months. I think the key issue here is whether WV can satisfy the banks re loan repayment - with AFREN Seplat wanted them to write off too much of the debt - and if they can PCI will have to accept whatever WV offers . The banks won't care what shareholders get and it's the banks that have priority over proceeds of the assets. The slight sp rise yesterday was probably due to the slight up-tick in oil price, but the fact that they couldn't get a loan in the bond markets even when the oil price was about $60 shows what dire straits the company is in.

They're already starting to drown in debt - adding to it would just increase cashburn

Yes, there's a serious risk of 0p here - as happened with Afren last year. The company simply can't service its debt at anything like current oil prices. Ironic ignore's leverage and company costs -he seems to think that if oil falls 50% its profits and asset value should only fall by the same percentage. Note that they couldn't raise a loan in the bond market a month or so ago when the oil price was higher.

are in control now. My understanding is that they can force administration and if WV offer them satisfactory debt repayment they can insist the company accept any cash offer WV makes to the company, however paltry. This seems very similar to what happened with AFREN last year. Shareholders offered awful terms in a debt for equity swap, made a big rebellion, and ended up with nothing at all.

Imo the article/promotion is another sign that a placing is coming up very soon, probably at a big discount in the current climate. Judging by the recent cashburn they'll need to do it before the accounts are signed off.

No, not the thoughts of "annalists" (analysts) that you cite, just those of a poorly informed blogger. The last purchase was early Feb last year so becomes irrelevant in just a few weeks and by the time a firm offer might be made. The banks are in control now and Worldview only needs to satisfy them in terms of clearing the debt. Their offer to PCI could be quite derisory but the banks could still dictate that they accept it.

Terrible value here on a realistic forward PER basis, and even on an 'official' one (about35).

By way of update I still think the sp is still too high but nevertheless I've closed my short here and transferred it over to DIA (even worse value imo)

which argues that the price is way too high. hTTp://www.lordshipstrading.blogspot.co.uk

Posted over from ADVFN (Im scantrader there). The company ‘s basic earnings per share were MINUS 12.8 cents, and even stripping out the supposedly wholly non- recurring costs the underlying EPS was an utterly dismal 2.8 cents (about 1-8 pence). At a target price of 90p That’s a grossly demanding PE ratio of about 50! Even if they doubled that EPS for year ending 2016 VLX would still be expensive on a PE of 25. And is that really likely when they say “Growth slowed in the second half of the financial year and we expect the markets in which we operate to continue to be competitive.”? I’m spread betting against this share. Regards

cash generation guff from GBO. The "free cash flow" generation in my household would be great if it wasn't for all our acquisitions ! Good articles on this issue by Steve Moore on Shareprophets. GBO seems to have the same prolems as BLNX in this regard.

Personally I think this share is way overpriced. The last trading statement showed that it had burned through $10m last year , a third of its fundraising already, and at an increasing rate from H1 to H2. Furthermore the research paper from Edison last year had predicted net debt to be much lower at year end $4.37 compared to the $12.2 m declared in the company update. Don't be surprised if their other predictions turn out to be similarly over- optimistic, which you shouldn't be anyway considering its research was paid for by Volex. Eg I doubt they'll now be able to generate ANY free cashflow in the coming year.

Investec is the house broker for VLX, a job I doubt it would keep very long if it gave a sell rec and negative price target ! Actually I think VLX will be rather peeved that their target is only slightly higher than the current sp - the norm for a house broker is to conjure up a target price of at least 50% upside.