Member Info for cromer

There's a new critical piece from deputy ed of share profits out this AM

Not listened to it yet, but more stuff from Tom W on his latest bearcast - says in the summary "I then have hot gossip on Telit (TCM) which shows up the FT's dictation from PR men taking hacks for the fools they are and reinforces the shorting case big time. "

Tom W 's comments. Bearcast behind paywall now though hTTps://www.*************.com/views/32164/tom-winnifrith-bearcast-the-ft-takes-dictation-from-pr-man-for-telit-again-and-spouts-hogwash-and-other-morons

Also I think the company capitalises its expenses such that what earnings it does make aren't actually cash that they could distribute as dividends. I haven't checked thoroughly but has it EVER generated positive free cash flow? DYOR as ever.

Well this has been a good momentum play - maybe re it joining the main market - but I think it's now crap value on fundamentals so I've gone short. The results are due next week and the FT puts the consensus of 3 broker forecasts at just 3p a share , a big drop in earnings from previous year after the latest profit warning and a price earnings ratio > 150 ! . The co can make excuses for last year but for this coming one the consensus forecast of 8p , if achieved, will be no higher than it was 2 years previously yet on a PE ratio of about 60. Fwiw the broker Numis gave a 12 month price target of just 370 p after the May profit warning.

Still well up , from months before delisting warned and being allowed to hold thanks

Tom W reports on shareprof rise due to due to peel hunt http://www.*************.com/views/29812/fusionex-shares-up-55-at-61p-wtf-fear-not

More comments from Tom W on shareprofits - well called by him as usual. http://www.*************.com/views/29742/fusionex-votes-to-delist-shares-now-33p-to-sell-worthless-ceo-teh-talks-horseshit-has-nomad-quit

I had a short position here but was forced to close on Tuesday because my broker had "been forced out of our short hedge position against this market." Presumably their lenders have been demanding their shares back which means they had to be bought back in the market - hence the recent price spike. Understandable - if I were them I'd want to sell at this crazy price, not settle for some paltry loan interest. GLA

hTTps://www.britishbulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=HOTC.L "The evidence is strong enough to prompt the closing of long positions. The bearish pattern that was previously identified is finally confirmed and a SELL signal is generated. " Quite a few automatic trades going through today so maybe stop losses already starting to be triggered.

The consensus broker forecast for the WHOLE year,ending June 2017, is just 7.43p - slightly LESS than the 7.8p at the half year stage. That gives a price earnings ratio of about 46 (!) which is lousy value even at the current high growth rate. Although it's been pointed out by some analysts I reckon quite a lot of private investors haven't registered that historically the company has generated more than all its profits in the first half year. Last year (ending June 2016)the profits were only £8.2 m despite being £8.8m in the previous half, and that's adjusting for the exceptional costs of the listing. There are 2 brokers covering this, and for what they're worth their 12 month price forecasts are 341p and 270p. When even the house broker isn't giving its client's shareholders a 12 month price forecast higher than the current price that should be another warning to holders.

The company is in default so at the mercy of its lenders,re both any new financial loan terms and any low ball predator offer, and its house broker finnCap have forecast a £4m loss for the year. Grim, so I've taken a small short here.

meldrew I've never referred to AVO's tech as a cyclotron ( or synchro-cyclotron) , nor doubted that it's a new technology for generating particle beams, or accused AVO of lying about it being that. The spin I've attacked is THEIR comparison to huge, expensive old cyclotron technology, and the cheap rhetoric about children's lives being at stake without the development of their particular machine.

938 - what you refer to as stupid comparisons are very relevant to AVO's commercial position - if the competition hadn't improved in terms of size, cost etc as I'd highlighted I think it would have got much stronger financial support.

I've always been open about my position. My comparisons have been precise and relevant, but like Meldrew you just couldn't understand the significance and kept responding with non-sequiturs. Re-read my old posts, more thoughtfully.

More stuff from Tom W over on his site - this time re the Metric loan. Glad I kept a quarter of my short open on this.

piltick - re your query see my response to meldrew

Oh Dear. cromer. How many hours of your life did you waste trawling through my posts?” About half an hour – it was easy to find gems exposing your projection onto me of your missionary zeal . “You do not accept that their technology is superior so you devote a lot of your time knocking it” NO Meldrew, I haven't knocked their technology at all, but it's easier to attack straw targets eh. What I have knocked is the devious ramping spin that compares it to old machines that won't be its rivals , makes out that AVO's failure would put the lives of children at risk, etc I haven't argued that the newer superconductor compact synchrotron rivals are superior, my case is that they've rendered AVO's tech rather unnecessary and are adequate enough to seriously limit AVO's market penetration . Imo this has threatened the financial viability of its whole project. Try putting realistic figures into a DCF analysis (NOT the daft ones that led you to your 'missionary' one of £250 NPV) and you'll see what I mean – I make the rNPV well below the current share price. “You would have been far better off just sticking to to the financial aspects where you were on much safer ground.” You can't just isolate the financial aspects from the technology like that – whatever the technical benefits development and marketing costs can ruin a product's success. The market clout, experience, proven reliability etc of the competition are likely to counter benefits of AVO's system. You seem to have made the classic mistake here of not just falling in love with a company, but falling in love with a technology and brushing aside commercial realities (and I don't just mean temporary funding problems). The market has a long history of companies with exciting new technologies and software, but which have been complete dogs for shareholders, and AVO looks to me like it's already in that club .

"You remind me of a crazed and fanatical missionary standing on a street corner trying to convert everyone to your illogical myths, fables and fantasies. I can imagine you in an old anorak, rain dripping from your nose, a small dog by your side, pushing pamphlets into the hands of random passers by." Meldrew, beware of rants like that – they're often projective and draw attention to the position of those making them. With 500+ posts promoting AVO on this board and hundreds on the other one as 'Daijavu' I wonder now whether you have a small dog alongside you as you type away pushing the company spin onto the screens of random readers / potential buyers. On 4 Aug 2015 you posted – very aptly in this context - “For whatever my opinion is worth, I regard investing in AVO as an act of faith. “ As just 2 other examples of your missionary zeal, on 23 Oct 2016 you played the silly mawkish card (spoon fed by AVO's PR ) that children's lives would be “put at risk” if Harley St was cancelled. The next day you did a discounted cash flow analysis so daftly optimistic that you “managed to tease out an sp of around £250 in perhaps 4 or 5 years years time.” ! !

meldrew - "cromer. If I could be bothered, I would list every competitor to AVO .....etc ..." Re your prior awareness of the size and cost improvements of the competition you've been too dismissive of them, and all too happy to support persistent comparison here to the huge expensive legacy machines as if that would be AVO's only competition. As spin that's likely to sucker in casual investors here I'm happy to persistently expose it as such – along with all the rest of the spin or naivety on the forum.