The Warren Buffet problem29 May 2020 09:29
To value the bird in the hand, we need to know when we will get the two birds in the bush. Having been here since pre-covid, and taken my stake out on a 10 bag I am on a pretty hefty free roll. Whilst this wasn't a "Covid" play for me, the company's success (and SP for the next 12 months), clearly hinges on the Antigen test. My biggest concern has been the speed to market, i.e. Covid 19 vanishes , or a competitor gets there before we do. Based on the excellent research by some here - i can see that we should have a much quicker and usable test. Developments in South Korea today with schools yet again closing , show that we will be living with Covid for some time to come. Also, those countries that shut down the spread quickly (aka "did well") - will have very limited herd immunity (UK running at 7%) - so a second wave / spike is very likely for them. New Zealand, Australia and South Korea are prime candidates and a huge market for an antigen test. So.... to conclude, i am letting this one ride!