The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
I would disagree that the catalyst for the SP drop was the bfs delay. The SP had dropped significantly that day on the news story ( which turned out to be a load of rubbish) about legal action against the beutong junior partner which disputed that the mining permits process was carried out correctly. The bfs delay news came after we were already trading in the 6-7p range that day and then the traders/shooters got involved. The bfs delay became the main narrative in the weeks after and I’m sure on its own is would have dropped the SP a bit but it was a perfect storm of bad news, bad rumours and negative overall sector confidnace that saw ARS plummet. I would say that nearly all 3 of those factors have been dealt with so the fundamentals here look extremely strong. But I’m just a guy writing in a message board so what do I know lol.
I think ppl might be disspointed with the SP after the bfs is released. As long as it’s positive It will rise on the day but not by 100s of %. I would think 12-25% would be my expectation on a positive bfs. this is the bfs for Bkm which the company had always really wanted to use as a means to fund beutong. The big value is considered to be in th beutong asset and that is further down the road. Solg is an example ppl like to use but they didn’t take off until bhp tried to buy them out and nick mather said no I’m not selling and you saw the sp go through the roof as everyone anticipated higher offers and potential bidding wars. Their main asset is great but it wasn’t the the driver of the sp all on its own( frankly I’d say it played a minor part). Look at the difference in ARS SP when J.P. Morgan Increaced their holding vs all the recent drill results. What I’m saying is the SP will jump based on partnership deals, takeover offers or eventually actual production and profits. PEA, PFS and BFS are important milestones but from my experience they haven’t been the drivers of SP in this stock or many others I’ve followed over the years.
Another annoying side effect of the large drop today is the shorters/de rampers it brings hoping to drive the stock lower on the back of it. Happens all the time after bad days. oh well.
BFS delay is not great but for those who actually read the RNS it understandable as to why it has been done. Will make the finance deal that much better and returns will be improved from it. I run/own a company for my day job. Id rather they do what they are doing than rush it to make some short term investors happy. Its what id do with my own company.
Seems odd to me. Management team are pretty damn competent and the non reporting of this would open them up to a pretty clear cut violation and then legal action if they are the target.
Also pretty common for shorters to instigate legal action just to short a stock but that doesn't seem to be the case here.
Heard on Bloomberg that Copper is being hammered by some new Chinese regulations. Not allowed to use stored copper as colateral for funding therefore releasing more supply and sending prices lower in short term. Long term copper is expensive to get out the ground and the world needs a lot more of it therefore simple supply demand fundamentals will takeover and price will go back up. I have bought and will buy more into this dip. Just my two cents
I have also topped up. I have about 7 mining stocks in my watch list and have looked up more that aren't on it. Every single one of them is down massively over the last month or 2. ARS has actually done a lot better compared. This is baby out with the bathwater. No bad news, no insider conspiracy BS simply a bear market where everything is being taken down.
I spoke to Peter at the recent mining journal conference in London. I did briefly mention the big seller, who was about back then, and he said he had heard from some investors who were in at the 1p stage who have decided to sell their holding.
As long as I am on this share I don�t want to wait until 2050 to cash in lol. Don�t want anyone taking my posts wrong btw. I�m very happy for the BOD to issue equity over debt. I�ve been involved with deals where the repayment of debt has ruined all potential in deals and short term finances killed off massive longer term gains. These short term ups and downs of the sp don�t particularly bother me. I�m in for the long term ever since I met tony and peter at an investor evening in London a few years ago. The hype does annoy me a bit sometimes as it can disappoint short term investors and turn sentiment unnecessarily against a good stock. $1b Macao is achievable but this will be a slow steady riser over 5+ years to see those valuations.