Member Info for Cranleigh

I don’t think Hancock are likely candidates - hardly what would normally be described as a “major global financial institution”?

Neither dummy nor a bore, ffc!

In that scenario I think there would some hedging by holders of the presumed new CBs, probably selling short at an SP much higher than today.

In my opinion the depressing effect of such shorting would be minor, as with the Stage 2 risk behind us the build progresses.

John, they reported in the 9 April
TR-1 RNS being down to 147m.

I guess your figure is from Morningstar, whose data when I looked a couple of days ago was seriously out of date at 380m. As their new version is for the holding at 31 March, that is of course before the 5 April disposal which triggered the last TR-1

Capital have reduced from c10% last year to a smidgeon over 3%, and maybe we will soon get another RNS saying they have further reduced to below that notifiable threshold...

ffc, I don't think they would be losing a lot under this scenario.

Each bond converts to 650,195 shares, so by shorting the odd few million shares (equivalent to say 5-10 bonds) now they would be forgoing a bit of profit in the hope of being able to invest in new, Stage 2 bonds at a very attractive price, with mainly the build risk remaining - so with very attractive gains possible on those new bonds.

Looks like a big(gish) holder trimming their position, perhaps one of:

- Capital continuing to reduce, now through the market rather than direct to the likes of L&G
- Holder reducing their Stage 2 risk
- CB holder trying to keep SP low ahead of Stage 2, hoping to be involved again with new CBs at the lower price the better
- II who picked up shares in Stage 1, same logic

“It’s been rather pleasant here of late”

I wonder why.
Must dash.
Prost.

I doubt it, Population.

Wikipedia suggests to me that Bruce Kovner left Caxton, which he founded in 1983, behind when he left and founded CAM to manage his own assets and those of some new senior colleagues: “In September 2011, Kovner announced his retirement from his position as CEO at Caxton, succeeded by Andrew Law. Kovner established CAM Capital in January 2012 to manage his investment, trading, and business activities.”

Population, I don’t think there is any link between Bruce Kovner’s CAM Capital and our (still) big shareholder.

CAM’s website states “CAM Capital is a fully independent, private investment company that invests assets of entities related to its founder and senior employees”.

Thanks, Verde.

Please could you provide links to the relevant pages on their website? Thanks.

Thanks Phil - didn’t find that. Another plausible explanation...

No, ffc, no further increase in L&G's holding appears in the Morningstar figures....yet.

Like, you, I would expect them or one or more other IIs to have picked up the majority of Capital's recently-reported disposal of 89m shares, and that the transaction/s did not necessarily go through the market.

FWIW Reuter's figure for total II ownership of SXX remains pretty steady at currently 21.26%.

With an idle half hour, I have tried digging into the possible reasons for Capital's recent, and perhaps ongoing, reduction in their SXX holding - apart from having a lot of their eggs in the SXX basket as the Stage 2 crunch approaches.

Morningstar (http://investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-major.html?t=SRUXF®ion=usa&culture=en-US&ownerCountry=USA) don't seem to be very up-to-date in their figures - they are still showing Capital holding 380m shares, whereas the RNS of 22 Feb showed that down to 236m, and the 5 Apr RNS down to 147m.

If you look at the 3 funds they manage and which represent 99% of their total holding, two of them are Virginia "529" funds (albeit confusingly no longer labelled as such by Morningstar...but I kept the November version!). 529 funds are a tax-effective vehicle used in the USA to save and pay for (part of) college education. Combined, these two 529 funds held 398m SXX shares back in Nov 18, since when - per Morningstar - one has disposed of 64m.

My understanding is that 529 funds each have a target maturity date, based on anticipated college start date, and that managers will shift each portfolio into lower risk investments to preserve capital as the college age of that cohort approaches.

If that is correct, maybe Capital have to turn a large portion of the respective portfolios - not just SXX - into cash ready to be withdrawn/spent on college fees.

Any USA experts out there who could confirm or deny that?

Myo, if you are driving the Woodsmith/Wilton minibus 2 days a week, how will you also squeeze in writing those £45 articles for Motley Fool?

Short Tracker only reports short positions of at least 0.5% of our issued shares each.

The total shares lent, at around 13%, is a better indication of total shorts.

Copyright prevents that, but if you just Google “Shares in Sirius Minerals jump ahead of funding deadline”....

I agree on both counts LL, albeit I would guess this disposal of some 102m shares has not gone through the market, but gone straight to one or more other IIs - as when they sold almost all that previous tranche to L&G.

Time (and Morningstar!) will tell.

So when should we expect to be able to read your first £45 MF article, Myo?!

Neo:

Try this link, or if that doesn’t work google “Norway Sovereign Wealth Fund holdings” .....and do better than me at reporting what you find! There is a search function on their website which allows you for instance to find individual equity holdings as at 31 Dec 18.

https://www.nbim.no/en/the-fund/holdings/holdings-as-at-31.12.2018/?fullsize=true

Final (?!) correction: 91m was value of shares in NOK. $10.5m so around 40m shares.

Back to the opticians...

Deary me. They held $10.5m worth (91m shares) in SXX, so not that modest. ...and $175m in ICL.