Member Info for Cranleigh

Myo “anyhow I expect that, given the link to getting the new high yield bonds away, the new convertible bonds will not be released to the market until that process has been complete.....”

Not so. They were placed already (1 May) RNS, then on 21 May the General Meeting approved the issue of the related shares and the Offering Circular was published.

One can already but them second-hand in the market - the last price I was quoted was 104, ie $208,000 per bond.

Those are the Convertibles.

No rush IMO for the High Yield Bonds - why start paying interest before you need the cash? I’m very confident they’ll go readily. Explains CF’s attendance at that Florida High Yield conference a few months back. I expect JPM already have homes lined up for them.

Sheer brilliance!

Placings!

Equates to clawing back 10% of the Firm + Conditional Pacings

I think you are wrong, wwguk.

Before Stage 2 the CFO held 1,135,525 shares, so he has taken up exactly his 1:22 entitlement of 51,614, no more, no less.

Agreed, Duracell - though that seems unlikely in this case as the other 3 holders who dropped below the radar with the increase in shares in issue all appear in the list with their new (below 0.5% levels):
Citadel 0.40%
JPM 0.35%
Polygon 0.32%
which leaves it looking highly likely to me that GSA have closed their previous 1.51% (c72m shares) short.

Myo, GSA Capital Partners closed their 1.51% short of some 71m shares on 23 May per Short Tracker (below the graph), so perhaps some of those had been borrowed from Capital.

Yes, that is definitely the new bonds.

I would expect them to move in value over the early part of their term up and down as the SP moves, especially once they are “in the money”.

The initial move to a premium of over 3% - before today’s SP increase - perhaps reflected how generous they are in terms of conversion rights, “make good” entitlement, coupon, redemption yield and dilution protection. IMHO.

With the odd $208,000 to invest, I would be tempted to buy a CB rather than SXX shares!

Quite, Verde.

Though it seems from the changes data (below the chart) that GSA Capital Partners LLP have closed their position, having gone from 1.51% to 0%.

Currently trading at 102/104, ie $208,000 to buy one. Any takers?!

When I say “a bit over half a year”, I of course mean for a bit over half a year in 2019, for which the 3kms target has been stated.

I think you are a tad out with that estimate, YM!

The first TBM will only operate for a bit over half a year, it’s due to be joined by 2 others, and there is expectation that the expected tunnelling rates announced are on the conservative side - and Strabag have considerable incentive to go faster.

If the tunnel takes 12 years to complete we may as well all look elsewhere for honey...

Once the shorts start being declared relative to the new number of shares in issue, the total declarable (net positions >0.5%) should drop, based on presently declared positons, to around 4.6%.

Three shorters will drop below the radar, the others will be at c.4.8/7 x their present levels.

The monthly average stock lent for June will be a better indication of total shorting.

Oh dear, thought I had concealed my pedigree, causal!

My broker told me this morning they were trading at 103.75, ie $207,500/bond. Not corroborated and asked him to check that isn’t the “old” bonds!

I don’t know about “fantasy”, GK!

At First Production, why would anything like a 40% discount to NPV be warranted/likely?

Without any such discount, if Enterprise Value was in line with your estimated NPV of $19bn, take off say $4bn debt = $15bn Market Cap = £2/share....

Mind you, I’m not so confident about low conversion of CBs in the early years - very generous (unnecessarily so IMHO) “make whole” conditions apply to holders who elect to convert.

Myo, the shorts will "drop" (as a percentage) when they start declaring positions relative to the new 7.0bn shares in issue as opposed to 4.8bn!

I suspect some of the increase over the past few weeks has been due to placees of the new equity and CBs hedging their anticipated new holdings.

Someone else!

Selling for $207,500 each...