Member Info for Cranleigh

have already gone to a premium of 3.75%, according to my broker...

Typo - para 2 should read "increased by some 218%". Sorry!

I know that not all our declarable shorts (>0.5% of shares in issue) relate to hedging by holders of CBs, but it is a good bet that the majority of them do.

And the share conversion entitlement of CB holders is about, assuming that the GM votes in favour (and that my maths is right!) to be increased by some 318%.

So a rise from the pre-Stage 2 declarable short level of 6.71% to today's 8.26% (+23%) is hardly a big deal IMHO. The new CBs have already found homes, so those new prospective holders have probably already started acting according to their policies.

And for those fretting about this, don't be surprised or excited by a sudden and substantial drop in the total declarable position next week or the week after, when several shorters drop below the 0.5% radar simply because they start declaring their positions relative to the new 7bn shares in issue instead of today's 4.8bn.

The Euroclear monthly average stock lent for June, when it appears in early July, will provide a more reliable figure.

in thinking we just might get a bid before the GM on 21 May? Cat, pigeons!

With the nature of Stage 2 finally clear (issue of masses more shares, through OO and in due course via CBs, and commitment to expensive borrowings), now would be a good time IMHO for a bidder with large cash resources and/or access to way cheaper borrowings to table a bid.

The alternative of waiting and having to buy out over double today’s number of shares, at a premium to what we all hope will be a much higher SP than today, might be sufficiently less attractive to warrant a bidder taking on most of the build risk.

I think there could be some avid readers of our wee Prospectus....

I’m here, ffc - been travelling and enjoying life although speechless at the underpricing of the OO (which would you prefer, Mr II, 18p or 15p?) and the ridiculously low new CB conversion price - plus a repeat of “making whole” holders that convert - totally unnecessary.

So my view is we left it too late to trigger Plan C with any bargaining strength as cash ran low, result City Boys 5, SXX 1.

Still, the mine gets built, we all should be winners but just less rich than we hoped.

? The Company will today launch an underwritten Firm Placing and Placing and Open Offer and Convertible Bond Offering as well as announce an update to its Stage 2 Financing, under which it intends to raise approximately US$3.8 billion to fully fund the Project to the point at which it generates positive operating cash flows.

That’s only short positions of at least 0.5% of our issued capital.

In total there are around 13%, so almost double your figure.

And GK, not forgetting the likelihood of a short squeeze .... around 13% of our current shares in issue shorted.

Should be an interesting day!

Just planted our potatoes (cries from proper gardeners of “What?! Way too late!”), with a good sprinkling of Polyhalite from Sch-you-know-who down the road in the troughs.

Looking forward to the bumper results, and to being able to do the same in 2022 with our Poly4 rather than the competitor’s “small rocks” as Chris referred to them at the last AGM.

Go Sirius!

Typed “Milo” - is autocorrect today anticipating the possible winner of the London Marathon?!

Couldn’t agree more, Mo.

Even if we had to find an extra $4-600m upfront, as well as part of that being leasing (already mentioned) and maybe completion financing, no reason IMO why we couldn’t sell CBs with a conversion price of say $0.50-0.75 to reflect something like the value of a fully-financed project with over 10mtpa of TorPs!

"2/ Much to all of the 0.4 to 0.6bn AF will be issue, either immediate or delayed (ie CBs)…"

I reluctantly agree, GK, except that I hope to see some leasing and maybe completion support (eg from ADM and or BayWa) in the mix for the $4-600m...if indeed JPM require such a large Additional Finance cushion, especially if we are ahead of programme on the build and with the European TorP landed on favourable terms.

But what I am really hoping is that our team are able somehow to get the bulk of new issue away at a share price that reflects a fully-financed mine, ie way higher than today's c20p.

That could be achieved IMHO through for instance a higher conversion price on CBs, or through a large part of a straight equity issue being delayed (picking up your term), an equity issue raising at least $xm being a condition precedent for drawing down more than say the first wee $1bn of debt.

As you say, we shall soon know....

No, I understand the Transparency regulations mean you have to declare when your holding goes over or under 3%, and over or under each 1% above 3% (ie when you go through 4%, 5%, 6%....).

Quite right, Myo, they held a total of 4.5754% when the last TR-1 was filed - mea culpa!

So as I understand it, if Capital continue to sell they will have to file a TR-1 when they pass below 4% (ie have sold another 27.6m shares), and another when they pass below 3% (another 48m shares).

And below that, we will be in the dark.

Good morning, Myo.

I guess that if Capital have continued to sell we shall soon hear. The last TR-1 put them at 3.0553%, so it would only take 2.7m shares sold to take them below the 3% mark which would require a TR-1, but after they were below that level we would know nothing more about their trading IMO.

It seems that Sirius have been able to partner with a couple of small players in South America and now Europe (BayWa 30mtpa of goods, but only 2mtpa of fertilisers). That sounds good to me in terms of route to market with partners with no conflicts of interest and a lot to gain from Poly4 success in their market. I wouldn't put ADM (a giant) in the same bracket for North America, albeit with their claimed exclusivity they are clearly putting a fair amount of PR behind the product already.

As to what do these partners bring? Sales force, local market knowledge, customers, delivery capacity and economics, probably blending capacity etc. We "only" bring Poly4, the results of trials and experience (in due course) in other regions.

Possibly because:
1. Being price-sensitive information, the European deal had to be announced directly it was signed, and
2. Having such an agreement in place was the condition or one of the conditions included in the Alternative Finance offer.

ffc if you Google that headline you get access to the full (brief) FT article

To all the team at SXX involved in landing this agreement with a major European company on better pricing terms than previous TorPs.

Excellent news, and good not to have too many eggs in the ADM basket.

I reckon if you could persuade flea beetles to eat Poly4 granules they wouldn’t be too well

Does the “2011” in Rooster’s handle refer to his/her year of birth?

I think we should be told...