Member Info for cperkin

Come on Dan do some leg work, here is a clue.

There are currently 7 companies involved in gas in Tanzania with between $20 million and 10's of $billions cash.

I am sure you can list them all if you try?

Yes agreed Hepseal, they are behind plan, however I don't think anyone will mind too much if they deliver sustained flows of 1100 bopd as per the target.

The question is will they? I certainly can't agree with Holyrollers 50% target of that figure as being good enough (1 well which after all is a sidetrack from existing production) I only wish I could get full pay and bonus for only hitting 50% of my primary objectives through my lifetime, easy money & easy life.

This is what the last placing was for,

Circular issued 12th December 2020.
Pursuant to the first phase of the development strategy ("First Phase"), which is to be undertaken during
the course of the next 12 months, the Group intends to:
x Restart the two existing wells at West Rustavi, WR-38Z and WR-16aZ, to resume oil production
and commence gas sales from the newly commissioned early production facility.
x Continue base production from existing wells in Block XIB, Norio and Satskhenisi.
x Drill one new well under the West Rustavi PSA ("WR-BA").
x Re-enter an existing well under the Block XIB PSA ("JKT-1") and drill a new horizontal sidetrack.
x target an initial production rate of 550 bopd at each of WR-BA and JKT-1.
x Workover of existing well WR-16aZ at West Rustavi, including the installation of an electrical
submersible pump, to target increased production of oil and gas.

Plenty I think, they bring reliable funding, expertise and buying power to the equation. They also treated AEX very well by bailing them out with loans whilst they waited for the Tanz Gov to sort themselves out.

I would say that it is the Zubairs that make the asset more attractive than if AEX or some other small partner was operator.

Blimey, I don't know what to make of AJ leaving?

I think Dan is saying that NR & Dan were apparently in cuckoo land? :0)

I don't think the Zubairs will be looking for another portion of Ruvuma, although happy to be proved wrong as they could have got is cheaper at the same time as the AEX deal, value has been added since as it has become de-risked and resources increased.

There are other cash rich companies in O&G in Tanzania who may be interested in a large and cheap onshore gas development that appears to be the next major gas project in Tanzania along with the LNG.

But there again, the BOD have been clear they will fund it to production if required, the EPS pays back in less than 12 months of production after all.

Many thanks holy, that's what I thought.

Seems we are not so far apart holy ref BLOE at least. Do you know if the money for the 2 wells was for the drilling and completion to production? I have been caught out before with BOD claims after the fact that the well monies quoted was dry hole costs only....

Not sure holy that a comparison with SCIR is in any way useful, the delays there in terms of Ruvuma have been 100% due to the Tanzanian Gov, thankfully since the last president was voted out and the energy minister replaced this year it's all green lights there now.

I am not fully convinced that BLOE are fully funded and I expect to see a placing before year end especially without decent flows from WR-B1a despite what the board claim in their RNS, this well has already cost significantly more than was budget ($3 mill) exactly by how much we will have to wait and see.

Like you say lets hope we see 500 boepd sustained flows.

Personally I would want to see a change post WR-B1a results and not wait any longer if it's a dud. If the well does not perform then you have to question both the business model and the ability of this BOD to act as operators. They would be better just buying production from an experience driller and operator and maintaining a non operator low G&A workforce.
Either that or dump the lot of them and bring in an experience team with previous successful operating experience in country.

I think most shareholders would prefer that Crusty?

Well Dan, best thing to do is look at the history, NT-1 was a low cos drill but came in with a high flow rate drill, NT-2 had a COS of around 65 to 70% as an appraisal well and delivered a 10X increase in resources along with a 700% increase in the SP.

Seems to me you are just misleading investors again and trying to manipulate the market, bad enough if you were a just a PI. I think I will put your comments today here along with;

Sell HE-1 @7p
Ruvuma is worth $0
And now a 3 bag on the appraisal drill is unlikely.

I disagree it is not misleading at all, and a bit of a joke coming from you Dan who posted here that Ruvuma was worth $0 just 2 weeks ago, get real (extremely misleading)

In fact the probability of the drill coming in positive is extremely high as you well know, at least for the Appraisal portion of the drill as this is the 3rd well on the licence area and it will be drilled post 3D

So I stick with my 100% now to up to 300% or more on the drill.

I think that's the short term bet Dan as you posted the other week, if they sell for around the last market value then we see around a doubling of the share price. If not sold by the drill, then as others have pointed out you could be looking at X3 or X4 return from these prices.

So the bet right now is short term 100% or this time next year X3 or more return.

Worth a bet imo.

1st week December seems about right, this well needs to flow at a sustainable production rate, no 1000 or 500 boepd initial results followed by a huge decline 3 months later. So better that they do it slow and careful imo. I have seen mixed results from such treatments in the past even where the chemicals have reduced the flow even further so the jury is out on this one till flows are published.

Well this none sense is being dragged out.

This was the important but.

Question is will anymore funding even be needed or will the BOD sell the Tanzanian gas assets, and invest in their strategy which is clearly the polar opposite to Hydrocarbon production?

Next activity starts in about 23 days with the 3D. I do wonder like Ufufuo if we will se some movement/announcement on Kiliwani & Nyuni before year end?

The arrangement is what it is and was put in place to protect Ruvuma, actually something the old BOD and new both recognised in spades thank goodness. Personally I prefer the arrangement to a discounted placing of 10 to 15% and 10% fees that some seem to prefer.

Question is will anymore funding even be needed or will the BOD sell the Tanzanian gas assets, and invest in their strategy which is clearly the polar opposite to Hydrocarbon production?

Before Dan wets himself 2023 ;0)

Well dave I am sure your friend agrees, as in Dan but to say No money is clearly wrong. But if by that you mean do they have $30 to $35 million for FFD, then no not at this stage of development. If you mean do they have the ability to fund the current agreed work programme, then probably yes. They have cash + at least another $3 Million available not including any sale of the remaining HE-1 shares.

Surely everything depends on any offer and the price? The BOD have been clear that they will fund Ruvuma to production if required (expected 20230 and I am sure they have the means and contacts to deliver especially post production.

My question was what would shareholders agree to and vote for?
$15 Million
$20 Million
$25 Million
$30 Million etc

Or some % retained and farm out?