Member Info for cperkin

debt willow and loss making today and no way to increase past the 130 million scuffs without spending capital to drill more wells.

My point being

1.0 To meet the 170 mmcfd gap in demand the JV will need to drill all the remaining FFD wells in the next 12 to 18 months. Not wait as Tarry thinks.

2.0 The $40 million max on the graph is only based on the 763 BCF 2C so far. So with 5 more drills I expect that 763 to be increased, even C-1 is now targeting an additional 900 BCF giip after all.

Seems likely that they will secure the rig for all the wells to be drilled (as they mentioned) and drill the lot around 3 to 4 months between each drill.

imo dyor etc

Also just to explain a little better the "Graph" only applies to the 763 BCF 2C as per the CPR so far. The Greater Ruvuma basin has been ascribed 5 TCF

Only 130 mmcfd of the 300mmcfd gas demand predicted by 2021 has current 2P resources assigned to it (WRL) leaving 170 mmcfd to be filled.

Who is going to fill this other than the current JV with Ruvuma gas?

looks like 2022 to me on the graph, but hey there is no scale other than 2020 ad 2049.

I think I will stick to the recently published Gas demand for the profile as opposed to a 2017 study

Government ambition for 5,000 MW in 2020.

Demand forecast by end 2021 predicted at ca.300mmcfd

Where is that coming from other than Ruvuma?

Regardless, $10 to $12 Million 2020 rising to $35 to $40 million or there about.

Where do you get 2025 from Tarry and where do you get "collapsed" from?

I assume you mean some damage to the reservoir as a result of having to mud up due to the very high pressures and gas shows, which is recoverable with standard remediation and workover.

As a reminder

Tanzanian power generation currently ca. 1,500 MW, with ca.780 MW from Natural gas,Government ambition for 5,000 MW in 2020.
Demand forecast by end 2021 predicted at ca.300mmcfd
Where is that coming from other than Ruvuma?

Yes some posters are optimistic whilst others are cautious, quite natural.

However I believe the optimism is propped up behind the knowledge of the current gas demand curve and the fact that the current 5 producing WRL wells are at the point where they require workovers and compression to squeeze a further 30 million scuffs total out of them.

If the gas demand curve is to be met then C-1 needs to be drilled and the 33km pipe laid next year and thus the licence extension and farmout needs to be approved.

All the best.

If Aminex are to deliver the farmout completion by their EXPECTED date then they will have to publish that circular by mid November which means the Extension licence has to be delivered or committed to before then.

Thats kick starts the unlocking of the asset and I would suspect a sustained recovery in SP from licence, farmout and C-1 drill through to prodduction.

Getting close

Good luck holders

If Aminex are to deliver their 40 million cash and carry Farmout by their communicated timeline then they have to deliver the circular Mid November which means the licence extension has to be delivered or committed to be delivered before that Mid November date.

November could well be a pivotal month in unlocking the huge Ruvuma asset.

Best of luck holders!

Look forward to meeting you EB & investors and no the keyboard experts never turn up to face to face meetings.

Have a lovely weekend :)

lol Early Bird, welcome to the solo board where the non invested have a pop at the invested and accuse them of ramping when they either

1.0 Remind everyone of the actual facts and figures
2.0 Dare to post anything positive.

By the way should it not be Cheep in your cae EB ;)

A week closer to the licence extension and farmut news, enjooy the weekend all!

Well for me when the licence extension is awarded and the Farmout completed in November as per the expectation then 40 million cash and Carry + 25% of 5 TCF GIIP with 763 BCF 2C in Ruvuma + 95% of a further 4.8TCF all for a price of 1.55p or mcap of 55 million, looks very cheap imo.

Going to splash out on a packet of sparklers whilst we wait for the fireworks ;)

Fed up with the Lull, just get on with the Fireworks please!

:)

10p - I thought it was a penny for the guy not a penny per TCF? ;)

I see Brian Hall is doing sterling work over at GWMO

http://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.asp?shareprice=GWMO

Can't say I miss him here.

Whats that smell? ...Load of Bull... just did a dummy sell for £10,000 and thats almost 20 times the market size to see and they will take the lot no problem, they want shares.

Massive Oil and Gas conference in Tanzania in November - would be a good time for Aminex to get sign off for the licence.

https://www.expogr.com/tanzania/oilgas/index.php

I think the strategy to drill C-1 first is the correct one steve, the last drill increased resources 10 fold and as well as this next drill targeting thicker sands there is the addional 900 BCF deeper target (150 million barrels of oil Equivalent) Which maybe gas or maybe oil.

Can't disagree with that Tarry, PI's took all the exploration and appraisal risk to date and not a sniff of back costs included in the deal, other than the backdated costs to March this year. And it's 5TCF GIIP of which 763 BCF 2C, new shareholders get all the benefit and the longer termers got stiffed.

A 40 million cash and Carry to be concluded during November 18 with a licence extension to be issued prior. The Cash and carry carries Aminex to Production and provides enough projected carry for the full field development of the Ntorya gas field including the building of the 33km pipeline to the Gas processing plant.

As a result of the deal the Omani Zubairs are committing $107 million spend to bring the field into production with initial minimum rate of 40 million scuffs per day or around 10 to 12 million earnings to Aminex growing to 140 Million scuffs per day over the next 2 years and projected $40 million earnings.

Nothing like a bit of balancce ;)

Oh I don't know Tarry, Crusty and a few others gave the line up a pretty good grilling at the AGM.

Licence extension and circular I think is the order?

"All political games designed to force AEX into the arms of the Zubairs"

Interesting comment Crusty, certainly worth asking who has benefited the most from the "Situation" and it would indeed be the Zubairs and the Tanzanians of course.