Member Info for cperkin

TR-1 due for each 1% till they are below 3% is it not TD?

Morning steve, 14th July is the date where we see if the BOD get bailed out by developments in Tanzania. Still depends on what they get for Ruvuma, all or part. I would say that post farmout on the 14th the asset is certainly worth more than today with its $140 million funding to production. So some uplift on the poxy $20 million for 25% that Aminex achieved which did not even cover exploration costs in full.

Not seen anything since 14th May and no recent large sales.

Quite agree Christoff, we are exactly where we were over 2 years ago in terms of, waiting for the AEX farmout to complete and having a $5 million draw down facility. This is exactly where Neil Ritson got us to, the difference being that all the other assets bar Helium-1 and Ruvuma have now been sold and the money spent, so worse in fact.

They are partly right but no context whatsoever and no mention of the reason being to drill the 3rd well in the basin with the first 2 already proving up very large volumes of gas, no mention of the sales process for Ruvuma either and the protection of the asset whilst they are open for offers.

Alternative heading would be "SOLO secure $5 million to progress huge gas discovery whilst waiting on farmout/sale."

I don't think it's safe to assume anything. Should find out within the next week or so.

Seems people are still confused about the difference between orders and sales Rookie.

Orders can be placed but are not converted to sales till post delivery and invoicing. For Export sales a fiscal invoice can't be issued till the goods have been received by the contracting party post import, POD.

Hence the lag between sales and reporting with sales numbers always being fiscally reported in the month after they occurred.

Not expecting any great numbers in the first month of sales myself, it's the order pipeline that is important at this stage imo.

I agree Hallowed, small caps are largely sentiment driven.

I am looking for one with something to offer & where sentiment is likely to significantly approve with a near term significant catalyst such as a carry to production & with already drilled, CPR'D strong flow rates and large potential upside.

Know any?

As per the companies presentation and the flow rates based on KN-1 ref pg 3 - Oct18

25% of the asset @ 40MMscfd = Net earnings of $11,428,571 pa
25% of the asset @ 140 MMscfd (FFD) = net earnings of $40,000,000 pa

It's a great business case on paper with a fast payback, providing the Tanz Gov pull their finger out. Depends on the AEX/Zubair farmout completion due the 14th July now and then a 25 year development licence post C-1 results.
One other point that is critical is will the Gov build the 35Km pipeline to tie into the current infrastructure or will it be the JV. History suggest the TPDC will.

Hi Highland, that's why they have just negotiated the $5 Mill credit facility as a starting point. I believe the plan is to show they are funded for the C-1 drill + initial 3D costs whilst they wait for a decent FO or sale for Ruvuma. They already have 2 wells that should be able to produce beyond the EPS 40 million scuffs and $12 mill earnings to solo.

They will need another $5 million next year for the balance of the 2020/1 works if they have not sold by then. Alternatively they could fund and brave it out till they have a 25 year development licence allowing reserve based lending.

FFD @ $35 million cost would provide around $40 million net earnings PA to solo @ the stated 140 MMscfd

Looks like FO or sale is on the cards though.

And all the directors bought many more at 2.25p OG.

@Ricksan. It depends on what you believe options are for? normally when I have received them before they are for either,

1.0 A reward for positive past performance (Not the case here, as shareholder value has only been eroded since they took over)
2.0 Incentive to drive performance. - If this is the case then a 1.3p option price is hardly a ringing endorsement of the BOD's confidence in their ability to deliver a decent return to shareholders and delivers little in the way of ambition or even confidence in the delivery of their strategy.

Difference being solo have a huge CPR'd asset with high flow rates and the BOD own around 7% of the company through share purchases with their own money, SS has bought zilch at UKOG.

Roll on the 14th July!

North of your 1p. Hallowed.

35 mill is just the cash equivalent of the carry so ignores the asset values. More importantly after over 2 years of waiting the development to production can begin and with small caps like this one sentiment is key and what an improvement in sentiment the FO completion will be with it's carry to production.

GL

ah, thanks steve :)

That's an agreement and not a sale though Newboy and otherwise categorised as "Pipeline" or forecast sales. Not actual sales reporting. I said "sales" can not be reported till the goods are delivered.

Not omitting anything Magsy, You can't report sales till they are complete invoiced and accounted for, that all.

Not back to this sales nonsense again. He said & I quote "early July"

You can't report June sales till July and then you can't report over seas sales (Exports) till finance have a copy of the import declaration and a copy of the proof of delivery, only then can you issue an invoice and book a sale.

So it will take UP TO 2 weeks from the end of the month to report sales for the previous month.

Evening steve, if only :) market changed massively in a short time frame.

They have not mentioned any deals on the Horizon other than Ruvuma being up for offers. At least they have the finance for drilling, if required...

We would be bust by now if it had gone through in the current European gas market steve, European gas price is a fraction of what it was when the deal was first put together, a bit like the SP for long term holders here.

Always been about Ruvuma for me, question is can the BOD redeem themselves with a decent deal? The AEX/Zubairs FO by the 14th of July is all important to that process I would imagine.