Member Info for Couerdelion

*disagree -> disappear

Of course cash could disagree quickly if investment or M&A were to be ramped up but I don't think investors would be worried if the company were reinvesting cash proceeds - or at least we can wait for the news before we argue the merits of individual investments. But we should expect investments would be make to generate better returns than other uses of the funds (including dividends and buybacks) so I would not be overly upset if the buybacks were dialled back if better investment opportunities were available

If we simply focus on the cash they hold now and the dividend costs then simply maintaining the dividend at 3.25p will cost c£3.7m next year compared to £4.2m. If we suppose further buybacks of £5m are spent over the next two years, the costs in 2027 and 2028 reduce to c£3.4m and £3.1m respectively (depending on the average SP but I've simply assumed 45p price in 2026 and 50p price in 2027. That's three years of dividends (c£10m) and £10m of buybacks for a company with £37m of cash plus 2.5yrs of cash generation. It seems to me that the cash generation would have to drop quite seriously before there was a real prospect of any cut in dividend.

As to the EBIT figures, I did not see where the £3m number came from but that seems like a big improvement from a £2.6m FY25 figure and further evidence that the value of the business (excluding cash) should be comfortably more than the c£18m which the market appears to be placing on it.

But, like I said when I added a few last week, I'm getting a dividend of 8% (now 7.2%) with a decent prospect of capital growth at some point and with that sort of yield I can afford to wait for the capital growth bit.

It does look quite odd. But I won't say no to a free dividend.

Always good to meet the crew and a few fellow investors. They seemed quite relaxed about everything and, if I add my own judgement, a very nice group of people.

Investor Meet later today for update and Q&A

1330p used to be and old topping-up price point for me. Let's see if this old price range is still working....

I can't see this going down further - at least not materially - so I'm calling 2.8p as the floor.

Just guessing though.

In the 6 months to Sep 25, cash has reduced by £3m after buybacks of £4.7m so the underlying business has generated £1.7m of cash. A similar calculation for the previous 6 months shows around £2.6m of cash generated. On those calculations, dividends would be sustainable at the current rate still leaving the £37m for capex or buybacks.

MCap of £51m vs £37m of cash leaves £14m for the rest or around 3x the current level of cash generation. You can have your own view on the sustainability of the cash generation but to me that looks very cheap.

Can we now safely assume that the "existing shareholder" originally held less than 1.5% of TEK? The shares bought in the placing would take their % to over 3% which would be notifiable.

If the placing was strategic, why was the name of the purchaser not disclosed? You can't deny that the stated rationale was opaque so what exactly is in it for TEK and/or its existing shareholders. Sure you can take it as a matter of trust in management and the Board and leave it at that but that's a bold stance to take if you don't really know them or their habits.

Those that have spent some time here are left to speculate on all sorts of motives of which "favour for a friend" is probably the least worrying for us as shareholders though hardly a good luck to prospective buyers when you are trying to sell shares in what is probably your biggest investment. And to do that for just £370k?!! That's the crazy thing to me.

Charts are fine enough and I cannot deny that there is value hidden within TEK so I have no arguments there. My concern is first and foremost around how shareholders get their share in this value and I believe a sizeable part of the NAV discount reflects a high governance risk premium (sometimes called agency risk).

His posts are certainly very long

SeisNav, it's probably one for the backburner now. If they have to resort to cobalt, something is clearly going wrong on the copper strategy. There's a lot for JLP to get done and get done right so no need for little shiny baubles for Leon to start chasing.

Unless you see they have some non-producing refining assets somewhere in Zambia.

The more that I look at this, the more I am inclined to buy back the shares I sold in September - B&B rules would turn a capital gain into a capital loss which is a bonus. Maybe a gamble on the deal progressing but the dividend would go a little way to covering that and I think it's certainly odds-on for it to happen.

And it gives me somewhere to invest funds I had waiting for the crash that didn't happen this morning; a DY of 8% is not a bad place to be.

Were they the ones who suggested that the accounting measures might put a restriction on dividends?

30% rise on no news but quite a bit of trading activity. It smells like something is afoot.

Yet another under the counter deal without disclosing the buyer yet offering 1.5% of the company at an undiscounted price for funds that have no earmarked use. Will we find out tomorrow when the buyer notifies the company that they have passed one of the % thresholds even though the company knows now that this is the case?

Such a trivial amount; but at what reputational cost?

You could say the rise is underdone too. Even if the margin on the contract were half that of the other natural resources business, it would represent around a 12-13% increase in the operating profit (based on the HY25 figures). And a near 20% increase in the forward order book.

It's a bit too early for me to be starting on the djins

And here's me looking to sell off a slice barely a week ago at c220p - well sometimes it's better just to be lucky.

I will looking forward to attending the Wednesday evening meeting.

I don't view the cash position as particularly vulnerable at this stage but the key here is the CEOL. Once that is unlocked there are warrants which will be exercised which will generate further £m's.

In hindsight it was a safe enough bet. All I did was buy back at 132p the shares I sold at 158p (plus a few more) then just waited. I think I'll leave these to run a bit more for now.