Member Info for Couerdelion

What is this idea about holding the price back? This looks like someone is selling a large block of shares which the buyers are snapping up right now. But to do that you have to own lots of shares but sell them ahead of a potential windfall. Once it is sold, the price can start to ramp up but the owner of those shares is the one who loses out because they sold at 6.6p.

Is there is a predator here, they would be buying those shares but there doesn't appear to be any RNS about substantial holdings that would be required under LSE rules.

We've been patient up to do. What's a few more weeks?

Hard to see much in these results either positive of negative - though the comparison to HY23 is perhaps unfair due to the settlement of the VW case. Will be one to look at later when I have a little more time but appears there was just enough profit to be interest and dividend (net debt unchanged) which is not exactly dazzling performance.

EPS looks solid enough and this should be after interest, so I've obviously missed some reinvestment in my rough analysis. Others will be able to correct me here and maybe have a better sense for how HY and FY tend to compare.

Sorry to hear about your friend but I don't think I can be as optimistic about the ability of Russia to sustain this. It's not just the historical precedent but also that there is little incentive for Putin to make peace (at least on terms that Ukraine would accept) when he knows he has the numbers in his favour. And with friends like Iran, North Korea and China, there's little prospect of running out of munitions. Ukraine, on the other hand, has limited options and reliant on supplies from allies who are not as reliable, being slower to act or subject to sudden political upheaval that would put them on the back foot.

Hard to see any way this war settle into anything that might be considered a good outcome for Ukraine or the West. There's no democratic Russia ready to emerge (with or without Putin), and any agreed truce will only be temporary. viewed as a temporary lull.

Of course, in places like Russia, nothing changes until the crunch when everything changes at once. But that's every bit as threatening as the current situation with the difference that we would have even less certainty about what it might do.

One of the directors has options maturing imminently with a price of 8.1p. Cliff's mature next year with a price of 12p.

The SP needs to get a move on if they are to be worth anything.

Yes, but the new investors will be buying into the company at a discount and they get to share all of the remaining assets that now belong to the current owners. So you're trading off a dividend (subject to tax) for a capital loss from the dilution effect. And I'm not sure how markets price companies that only pay special dividends.

I get that some prefer dividends to capital gains. I'd take both but given the choice I'd prefer the capital gains.

LLoL, my point was really about the general timeframe. Yes, there has to be some sort of exit point for every investor and a stock without an exit point is probably worthless. To that end, the point I was making here is that the company needs to demonstrate some sort of ability to turn a good investment into cash - or at the very least a plan to do so.

As for reinvestment vs distribution, the annual report mentions that realised profits will be used to fund special dividends although I'd argue it should not do this if it then follows up with a cash raise for new investments. As for the type of investment, well there are plenty of AI opportunities around so best to judge this one when we see it but safe to assume it won't be competing with Microsoft or Google.

There aren't many news stories on the BBC that are likely to make me sell these shares. It's all about geopolitics and the wider picture is one of increased spending over the next 5-10 years. Markets today just seem to have overcooked the news that the Germans will be trying to get new Ukraine aid to be paid out of Russian money.

What does that mean? The only bit I understood was that the share broke through the 2-yr high, but it did this on Wednesday, not Friday.

Not that I will complain about upwards volatility. I've already increased the level at which I would trim my holding to 700+

I would interpret it better as a "Strong Don't Sell". Though at the current price, it looks more like a "Strong Buy" from a value perspective.

The key news highlighted is the government announcement of CEOL contracts. If that it positive, the ASX listing will be oversubscribed and the price will shoot up.

I can't comment on market technicalities about whether the listing price will hold the price down at this level prior to the listing - I suspect it will. But I'd want to be invested before any positive news from Chile in anticipation of the positive news from Australia.

Share price is only of interest from the perspective of an investor who wants to buy or sell. If they trade at a massive discount to NAV (probably the most useful metric here) that reflects doubts over the valuation or the ability of the company to turn that value into cash.

It's a value stock here that you buy into for the long term return. But as a micro-stock, it can drift down when there is little news (LUCY is a rounding error in this). I would agree that the company could be clearer about how it plans to generate money for shareholders and concerns about future capital raises are probably the biggest drag on the price. Some news on divestment (even if it is reinvested) would be well received.

It's a micro cap with a small investor pool. First you sell it as a profit-take then you sell the ultimate oblivion story and if enough people buy into that, you pick them up of the cheap.

Whether MT actually buys and sells at the prices he mentions, who can tell. He's quite cagey when it comes to specifics about when he buys but you can infer that more from his change of message. It's easier to tell after he sells when the shares become virtually worthless.

As to his current argument, it's not impossible in this case but he's only just amplifying the risk that we are all aware of. A small nod given to the recent discussion with the unions was summarily dismissed as of fleeting interest.

For the defence, I can only point you in the direction of the latest public sector pay settlements which will have been agreed either by Reeves, or by the PM. Pause for a moment to reflect how that sits with the line that we can "only spend what we can afford". The pessimists line here is easy to believe because it is founded on government statements and back by manifesto commitments. The optimists line is that simply that the pessimists have overcooked things.

Does seem right. What was the share price factoring in during May when it was over £18?

There's too much upside here for me to ignore.

Not the only thing here that runs like clockwork.

Using figures from the YE23 presentation -

The Euro1bn revenue business is the bit they are selling. Excluding fairly trivial B2C business, they would be left with the B2B business with revenue of cEuro0.7bn. And net cash of over £1.7bn.

Now the ongoing legal situation in with Caliplay (Mexico) complicates matters a little - at least in terms of how the market values the residual business. But a company with £2bn can afford a lot of legal advice so there is a fair chance that they will be some form of settlement here which will improve the valuation.

Which brings us to what the company might do with the massive windfall. It could then be up for sale to bidders or it could adopt a pure B2B model with acquisitions of its own. Or it go back into the more diversified model looking at other growth markets.

Either way, there is plenty of upside left in this company if the sale progresses close to the price suggested. I don't even have to stretch any valuation assumptions to put this in the £3bn bracket.

The discount in the current value has to reflect an element of doubt in the likelihood of a deal at the price suggested. I think Playtech would be fine walking away if the offer is not good enough.

Absolutely, it will be over 8p by next week. And it won't stop there to wipe its feet.

Patience indeed. While we are waiting for the next relevant news story, the share price can do what it likes. A few people taking some profits but there are still plenty who see this as being at a very deep discount and don't want to try to guess where it bottoms out.

First day of trading in the new shares after the compulsory buyback. In theory the price should drop a little but there might be other supply/demand factors here.

Either way, the dividend is a good reason to hold.

Bit of profit-taking/loss-limiting going on here during lunch. I can't really blame them as I had 90p marked as the level where I might consider reducing my exposure.

Time will tell if I should have.

I've been hovering on the edge of a decision to top-up a little on my investment here. 30p was enough to tempt me.