Member Info for Copper3

BIgg, Sorry, a little bit of knowledge is dangerous in wrong hands. I did add Crosby and West Firsby production together and that is about 59 bopd in October 19 , please check the UK oil gas authority website for data( propduction volume in m3 so you have to convert to bopd) What I forgot to add in is 65% interest in production at Whisby which is operated by BEPL., thats 27.4 bopd , so total is 84.6 bopd- so not as bad as I thought, but it is reducing. ( as exopected) I still think its a firm hold until more updates by April. So very dissapointed people are selling today, although without news its understandabale. I note FINN CAPP report In February 2020 indicates their view of a 2.2 p NAV in JULY 2020 but has a target price of 14 p, so obviously weighted to Inniskea expectations in due course. They seem to expect a phased ramp up in production at Wressle which I dont fully undertstand but they estimate Wressle income in 2021 at £2.5 m which looks right to me.

AS the share price slides I'm trying to make sense of the facts over hype-that led me here. ( flagship project etc.) I really did think Wressle would be a good backstop, maybe getting back to @.2.9 p share when we hear when site planning conditions are met and production to start. Inniskea is even less certain, but we might get updates in early April for both. We really need positive news on Inniskea, I'm now taking a more realistic view on EOG, and still holding. Last production figures from October 2019 indicate a fall in existing crosby & west firsby bopd to around 59bopd. ( down from 90 bbl opd reported in previous year)accounts . The cost of production last year was very high according to accounts last July hence a company loss of £700,000 k but accounts don't clarify what cost of production included- is there some capex in there?. UK Oil gas authority data indicates an average unit production cost for small cap oilers of $20 per bbl. Applying that to future wressle production 150 bopd and assuming EOG still make a similar loss as last year on existing operations, (It may not be that bad, e. g with wressle planning appeal costs paid for) I would say fair share price EOG would be best 2.10p . So we need that Inniskea news and strong nerves to hold till April at least.Good news is still there is cash in bank to pay share of Wressle cap-ex , survey commitments at Inniskea, Morrocco, Hardseft and Cloughton in UK. Put away now for a month. Off on holidays soon.

Tac. My undertsnding is that ~DCCAE public consultaiton period on the futher queries finished on 14th Feb 20 , so maybe a decision in principle next month by the officials. However new government might be another 6 weeks away as there seems to be a deadlock, so if wait for new minister approval could be a longer delay. New governmnet most likeley to include the greens. Ive looked at greens pre election press confernce nd they do seem to be a pragmatic bunch talking about a mix of wind power, bettter homes, better pubic transport, but also mentioning keeping energy continuity and transition periods to low carbon and also keeping irish to uk interconnectors ( gas and electric?) maintained, and co operation with uk. So still hopeful for inniskea in near term.

Yes Tovoc,agree. should be rising up to 7-8p in the summer when Wressle production starts.I think the most technical of the planning conditions at Wressle is for approval of the ground water monitoring boreholes . That information should be to hand with EDR and it should be a Council planning officer decsion to approve the details. Expect to see work on site in April for groundwater monitoring works.

Some reason behing the delay in providing DCCAE the info required.Hopefully we will have positive news end March 2020- see this reply FROM EOG -Simon Oddie today.
"Work commenced on preparing an environmental response immediately after
receipt of the request for further information received on 7th Nov 2019, and
a meeting was requested with the DCCAE environmental advisory unit (EAU)
which took place later that month, when they confirmed their understanding
of Europa's schedule regarding achieving a site survey on Inishkea in the
2020 season. Following submission in December by Europa of a detailed
response, the unit embarked upon a completeness check needed before posting
the submission for public consultation. Progress on this check was
understandably delayed by the seasonal Christmas and New Year break and we
have recently received a request for further information which we are
working on with some urgency for rapid submission. We would then anticipate
that EAU will post for a 21 day public consultation. On this basis the
estimated date to receive consents for the Inishkea site survey is late
March leaving adequate time for the site survey work to take place this
summer as anticipated
I hope that this addresses your concerns and please be assured that we
continue to progress this project with the utmost priority.
Once there is progress to report on this or indeed any other aspect of the
business we shall of course update investors."

From the Planning Inspectorate Egdon- Wressle appeal programme papers published in April 2019. Inquiry (time, date and venue)
10.00, 5.11.19
The Hobbies Centre
Wesley Road
S****horpe
Estimated number of sitting days 6
Decision issued on or before (Inspector decided cases) 17.2.20
So thats the decision very last day . hopefully we willl hear earlier-in next week or so.

Seif, I note that DCCAE says that response from EOG will be put on their website for 21 day public consultation- I don't see any reference to that on the website, ( noise affecting habitats and clarity of line of survey etc.)So does that mean EOG have not yet replied from 6th November- that's pretty poor if that is the case.

I guess a major buying a stake now would raise price and formal bid for takeover might cost them £16m. so they would prefer to see the gas comiung out of the well in 18 months. Hoping that after Dec 17th or so, Wressle decsion will make EOG worth more than that. Glad to see a good late buy today . I was despairing I was the only one taking a plunge today into these murky waters. Will all come good soon.

For survey to be finally approved there is no need for E.I.A. ( petroleum regs), but more information is required required for E.I.A ( natura) regs . EOG was given 21 days from 6/11/19 to provide further information on noise implications of A.U.V autonomous Underwater vehicle etc. . Then 21 days to publish that data on DCCEA website for public comment, so I don't expect decision before end of Jan 2012. That's just permission to do the survey, probably in summer 2020 maybe earlier, so E.N.I. or whichever major is probably waiting for results of survey and any mitigations required before drilling licence application can be considered. So I don't now expect major to sign before summer 2020. That how I read it. Good news is that Eire sees 30% of future energy coming from gas so they want Corrib to be extended , but not in any hurry.

Looks like a comprehensive workover for West Fisrby. However data from Oil and Gas authority is that last production shown for August 20128 is 33 boe/d for West Frisby with total EOG at 62 boe/d, so dont expect too much from increased production. I would like to see Egdon confirm they have submitted appeal for Wtressle.That should be more significant.

After a bad day here just trying to cheer up. Wressle Planning application on North Lincs Council planning committee page,agenda for 28th November.with recommendation for approval. The issue of groundwater contamination looks to have been addressed. Feel a bit sorry for near properties at Lodge farm with heavy vehicles gping to be driving past several times a day, but I would think there is a very good chance of application now going through planning this tiime.Lets hope so amyway.

Still hopeful that PFD will come good in April,depends on how much Kiplings cakes etc have been discounted- they do seem cheap on the shelves. Overall expect sales revenue to be 2-3% above last year. Market value currently �370 and N.A.V. from last years accounts �720m, so surely some room for an uplift. Prediction from Darby that net debt will be lower at year end accounts. . Lets hope so, but by how much. I think we should be back in 50's in May