Member Info for Copper3

While is likely the greens(Eamon) will want to see progress on wind power..I agree that finally the issue of energy security will swing the balance for inniskea next autumn at least in terms is issuing site survey licence..from gas drillers view the other side of coin is the gas price which is showing an autumn uplift now..higher than last years..athough still not as the highs of a few years back. There's lots of gas supply around from Russia.. aberbizjan etc..possible LNG from USA etc..but with increasing worldwide demand for gas as transition fuel ..gas prices may well increase again higher still next autumn...

I think the recent bond convertibles were just at the end of this financial period, As the convertibles paid 13p to get a share currently worth 27p ( as we know it was about 36p at time of conversion ) the company is issuing a share asset at a discount, (paper) loss to current value , which not only affects the balance sheet , but the loss adjustment in this case has to be accounted for on the profit and loss account , so its best to just look at the Operating profit, and that is a more cheery view. If for some reason POG assets need revaluing upwards - i have to admit that is unlikely at present, then the profit and loss account would have a positive paper profit added due to revaluation. Im not an accountant, but I think thats how it works. This share should be good by February, up in the 50s hopefully on next results, ( with average gold above $1890 ) but please can we have an independant director appointment ot two , soon soon to calm the market . GLA

Loss due to write down from options; so not a cash loss.Ebita still very good. one area not explained is why costs of third party (UGC)concentrate increased so much..

Nice to see energy policy debate.but if that cork planning policy ends up allowing the LNG Plant for US imports to go ahead..will not be good news for inniskea..

Interesting to see ongoing discussion of energy policy issues..but the cork proposal is a Cork planning policy at this stage..and if that proposed LNG plant for US imports did go ahead it might scupper inniskea chances ..so please don't get excited by that.ideally it should be stopped.

I am trying to answer my own query on cost of sales for producing assets in July 2020 annual report. ( £1.4 m) I note that for non technical or commercial feasible assets , the costs are written off to Cost of Sales- So Apart from the general write off of $4m for Porcupine intangible assets, there is also reference to £371,000 exploration cost write off for Porcupine wells 16/12 and 16/22, which may have been allocated to Cost of Sales. For Morrocco the estimated costs of survey work over two years from Nov 2019 is £0.5 m, so some of that will be allocated to last years Cost of Sale. Finally I'm not sure how the revlauation of UKOG shares for Holmwood has been accounted for. Was valued at £300,000 on sale to UKOG now shares worth just £44,000. Taking above into account it should bring the Cost of Sales (for Crosby Firsby ) down to the figure of £844,000 quoted as net cash spent on operating activities, which is a more acceptable figure.
Going forward this year there will be another year of Morrocco expenditure , and payment of the Wressle start up, which they should still have money for just.
I think it will all be ok by next summer, unless they want more cash to expand wressle production, start work on Broughton North ( 30% interest) etc. Thats unlikley next year considering time taken for approvals. By summer 2021, oil price increase should resolve matters
Im going to put these away for 6 months
Good luck all.

Leigh I agree we may have to hang on in there for a while to get any firm irish News, possibly a year, but a drill is maybe 2- 3 years away. Looking at recent 13/10/20 report by Finn Capp brokers, it does look like Wressle start will be December rather than Nov., as they also say end of this year. Report is not that positive short term, with anticipated small EOG loss in year to July 2021, then £0.3m profit in year to July 2022. Profit and company value would increase significantly if oil prices went back over $55 but thats not certain. What I dont fully undertand from EOG July 2020 annual report is that current production at Crosby/Fisby etc has a cost of production higher than revenue- (average oil price $48) so operational loss ,-it raises a question of why costs are so high, and whether it is really worth production at crosby continuing, unless oil price does get into the $50s. -If anyone undertstands that better please advise. Both Crosby and Fisby current eases run to end 2022
As to admin expenses they should reduce a bit next year if salary cuts still apply and office lease is released. On the positive side Finn Capp still have a 6p price target if Inniskea progresses. May have to come back in a year to find out.

Total staff costs were about 1m up to to July 2020-
of which Directors’ salaries and fees –£529,000
I trust they have cut that by 20% since.
We need EDR to give a firm update on Wressle soon to settle the market. Maybe early November.

I thought new managment would be happy for third party concentrate to continue, as a lot of it comes from UGC., and that was part of reason for the boadroom coup., and Pavel wanted to phase that out. After flotation plant is operational that policy may change slightly but still expect UGC concentrate to be processed., at low profit margin. I note your comments on dollar, and so hope gold price stays above $1900 and more debt is paid down, or refinanced

The way I read RNS is that we have sufficient cash if Wressle gets in production soon( end Nov or by early Dec ?) They raise issue of existing production of 90 b/d dropping off -- no timescale,but maybe even next year, although they have done well to keep it going so far, so getting at pennistine fomation at wressle will be required to keep overall production up. Its unclear whether they can drill pennistone from existing Wressle well, although they tested from there. Finn Capp report suggests that it is sub optimal. ..thats the potential cash raise issue maybe later next year - and no timescale given to that yet.. Anybody understand that better please advise. Outlook for EOG will look better when oil price starts to rise next year.

On reflection, Wressle may well get to 3p and above when they get the Pennistone formation producing, with oil prices above $55 , or even to $65 if Golman Sachs are right.
As to Inniskea Eamon arriving at his Dudblin office on his bike must have many things on his mind which I cant predict the outcome.
Firstly a site survey is needed. Cork based Mainport bought a survey ship recently on the cheap, in anticipation of more site surveys for offshore windfarms. “The seabed can be as mountainous as land, so if you are laying a cable or doing other work you have to have a very detailed survey.European energy giants such as EDF, Innogy and Statkraft, which are planning to invest billions of euro building offshore wind farms, in the Republic’s waters are going to require sea bed surveys."
Eire Government policy is reported as -green energy to generate 70 per cent of the electricity used in the Republic by 2030, from about 40 per cent now, including phased trnasition from domestic gas heating to electric.
The official policy documents- Energy and Climate Policy 2021-2030 refers to - policy statement on Petroleum Exploration and Production Activities as part of Ireland’s Transition to a Low Carbon Economy was published on 17th December 2019. This sets out the government’s vision for natural gas in the Irish offshore as a key component of our energy mix, as we transition to a low carbon economy.
• the need for back-up capacity for renewable power generation via lower CO2 emitting fossil fuels (natural gas)
• the impact of the reduction of peat, coal and oil use on gas demand
• our increasing reliance on imports given the decline of current indigenous supplies, also mirrored by a growing reliance at EU-level on imports (74% from outside the EU and growing)
I note from Irish Times- Providence Oil talks with potential partner, Norwegian Player, Spoton Energy, are ongoing on plans to develop Barryroe, where oil production could begin in around two years.
Lying around 50km from the Cork coast, Barryroe could yield 350 million barrels of oil with, potentially, significant quantities of natural gas. Could that satisfy Irish needs rather than Inniskea ??
What is going for Inniskea is it is fairly close to existing field infrastructure., and Corrib will start to decline from 2025.
The other issue I note is that Electricity grid needs improving to handle new offshore supply and planning delays( we know about those ha ha) could derail the offshore supply to main cities.
Nothing will happen without a commercial price incentive /and or hiccups in the green tranasition. So keep an eye on gas prices, and well just have to see.
Come on Eamon, its getting a bit chilly now

I think oil is more likely to be capped at $55, as above would affect OPEC + supply restrictions and US shale oil restarts. Just wanted to check back what FINN CAPP have been saying. Last report from August suggests 2p price only if they get the Pennistone oil bearing formation into production, which will mean a new round of permissions. However they seem to say Inniskea is a "good risk"., with all risk share price of 6p. I note today US Gas prices are up. Will keep a look at those over next 2 months see if they stay higher. EU prices follow usually about $2 higher than US prices. FINN CAPP-- https://researchlibrary.finncap.com/Research/Search?SelectedCompanies=49

Positive news. Thanks Mighty, and Brezhnef

I dont see many buys today. Are there still worries about cash. I thought Simon had promised there was still enough in the pot to fund their part of Wressle. Surely not much more than a month to go for really positive news .Oil price should pick up at year end,or into the spring with vacine news unless covid really devastes everything. I think we will just have to get used to Covid as best we can slowly , admittedly less travel, less oil demand than before but picking up soon though. Wressle production may improve next year although I'm not sure if they need a fresh round of approvals to tap into the other oil layers. Come on cheer up you lot and buy some. 1.5 p soon

7&28 - When I got a reply from POG investor relations a few weeks ago, They indicated interims would be October. - no specific date given. Still awaiting news on independant directors, before they are likley to get an auditior appointed. may be worth another e mail request .

I think we still have to take the mid term view on EOG. This years turmoil in oil market should ease next summer. Prediction of $55 to £60 oil by end of 2021, so Wressle should be very profitable by then, and share price may get back to 3p. Im not sure where gas market is going- Gas price is down at moment, and we may have to wait for a cold spell to affect demand. Eire energy policy is for security of energy supply. So any hiccup in future gas imports from russia/uk that may affect future security may tip balance in persuading greens that its a good idea to invest in Corrib., as its due to start depleting from 2025 ( for security- note current debate on future of new NORD gas pipe to Germany due to politcal assassination attempts) It has been frustrating to be here for last 2 years and I'm also puzzzled how EOG managed to spend the last fund raise issue in such short space of time. I think its worth staying in EOG to next summer to find out more on Corrib, so no more sellers please.

The simple answer at the moment is nobody want them. There is a glut of oil, which will take at least to end of 2021, maybe 2024 to normalise so morrocco may not be needed for another 6 years or so , past EOG licence period. Inniskea may be needed, but firstly wholesale gas prices need to rise significantlyto at least $3.0- they have slipped recently with oil prices, although still much better than in early summer, currently $2.38 , and secondly the irish energy minister as leader of green party will need to see significat green energy come into market from wind farms etc.- Amazon and other data centre electricity users are financing some of new wind farms...before he could politically approve any further extension of corrib gas field, and thirdly although Hugh and now Simon tell us its a worls class asset , there is a geological risk of 30% success, so its still risky for a multi million drill,.and the 7km of seabed pipeline needed, I think it will happen next year, but what do I really know?.Eire still have the option of importing russian gas through UK interconnectors which seems to be the current policy. Just hoping Wressle comes good, and they can increase production next year and of course oil prices lift in 2021

I agree that Morrocco may be wasted time and effort. As to Wressle, with oil down today to $40 it looks a bit gloomier, but we have got to see positive cash flow, from October which can't be bad, then oil price should rebound at least to $50 with world economy past covid by next summer., although we've got the UK economy uncertainty of Brexit to look forward to. So maybe a smaller share price increase on wressle production than hoped for, but improving into 2021.

Looks very very promising- I presume they will concrete surface over the hardcore for the site working area - if pump arrives in next 10 days , could we have oil production first week October?

Looking back to around Dec 2018 , tried to find the RNS date when "the major N.W. europe office " was interested in Corrib awaiting head office go ahead- which of course never happened, like Homwood etc. The weholesale gas price was around $3.00 at that time, and today its now at $2.50 + , so there is potential to get back to previous levels of $3.00 this autumn. That would add some interest for potential farm-in ees. However it may be early next year when Eire politics alllows for sensible consideration of extending Corrib life. Worth hanging on in here to find out, if gas prices do approach $3.00 again.