Member Info for Copper3

Finn Capp..Risked NAV still at 7.4 p ..but interesting that non risked serenity and pennistone success could give 40p.

If Serenity is as good as predicted, and can be brought into production in reasonable time scale and high oil prices remain for next five plus years-before any substantial electric vehicle use affects demand, I can see an EOG price of 20p possible this time next year. However as always a high caution with EOG projects., as there a a lot of ifs around the well being optimal or ifs on the co-operation needed with adjacent operators to bring the oil to market and how long all that takes. GLA long term holders.

Article very ambiguous.and saying cost of extraction higher further offshore just obvious.is this just more data room hype.? The data report on Eog website indicates prospects in Inezgaze are central and north of the licence.
..turtle; charlie;whisky. a long way from canary islands .no mention of previous article that suggested Hunt oil interested offshore Essaouria in north of licence.articles like this don't help unless backed up soon by a positive EOG statement ..before the licence runs out .p.s. the website page on morocco still refers to experience on porcupine.ha ha.
Only good thing mentioned in article was that spain may fund another pipeline if gas found..?

Interesting comment on Norweigan gas.Norway still part of EEA which was sort of Teresa May option for UK after brexit.There will be Norwegian UK UAE and USA gas coming into UK and Ryan can be happy enough to tap into that through the interconnectors., But when finally Germany stops import Russian gas there may not he enough for Eire.Maybe crunch time in the late autumn 22..

The article refers to report from april 13 that Hunt oil is lined up for a drill offshore assouria (mogador) which looks like it may be in northern limit of innegaze licence.Would be nice to see some firm information on this from Hunt or Eog in next month.Perhaps the story is true but subject to finalising a deal on farm out??.

You may be looking at US Hub price which today is up 4% to $7.29 per mmbtu ( i think)
Germany hub THE down a bit to €89.85 per MWh spot price a bit higher for future month at €96.7 per Mwh.
Uk hub 231.8 p per therm.
The differant currencies and way of measurement is confusing albeit to say prices are still very high..and there is more gas being sourced from permian in US and UAE for N.europe..southern europe gets gas from algeria and some from morocco....more potential in morrocco but we hear nothing yet from Simon. Ryan seems happy for Eire to import gas via uk connector..but I dont see too much progress there on additional renewables bridging the gap.

Finn Capp research paper today gives risked NAV of 7.3p which includes 3p for serenity with proviso that serenity could be multiples of that depending on thickness of oil sands .roll on EDR next week and Sernity in September.

Corporate presentation on i3 website today.they seem to be doing well in canada and plan for serenity indicates 50% recovery of 197 mm stoip...from average 40 ft sand thickness..but it may be more..100 ft possible.

Current OIL production may be 75 bopd,- last EOG update, but looking at OGA data( now North Sea Authority) it seems that in December 2021, there was a gross m3 production of 513.7 m3 net to EOG from Crosby, W Firsby and Whisby( 65%) thats 16.57 m3 per day or 101 bopd. So maybe the current production is better than we expect. Lets see. Dont expect news on Wressle gas for a few more weeks , until EDR have made a decision on what gas equipment to install...Hopefully we will also get an update on approvals for I3 appraisal well , which the new North Sea Authority should be able to sort quickly. Inniskea still looks like Ryan will not approve unless the Energy security report ( was it due spring 22 ? ) goes in our favour .

I thought Finn Capps briefing today gave a low value to existing crosby etc. and wressle ashover..they currently have 1.8 p..
Now we know the placing ties up with low Finn Capp ..for the old boys in the know... should have got out of some part at 3.3p..like the old boys.. but this will recover in April and maybe a big win later in year.

A bit of a climb back for POLY today.

Agree we need more inform from EOG on whats happening at iInniskea. Looking at Finn Capp briefing note, I think they are in a way understimating potential current income . They give £5.2 m to July 2022 , but assuming conservative figures of net to EOG, Crosby etc 70 bopd and ashover 210 bopd, @$92 will give full year 2022 income ( Jan to Dec) of £7.5m, so profitability increases substantially. Or put it another way the 2023 income and profit will be substantally higher. Of course we still await the EDR update on gas eqipment installations, increase of wressle production and a revised CPR so a lot can still change , I trust in an extended well life direction., which would be great for the share price.

Is this linked to short selling. ? Do VTB bank
Intend to buy back having seen the price deflate?
What happens to pog gold if putin invades..lots of uncertainty but surely will pick up again soon.

BIt of a mess. Looks like manipulation from major shareholders,UGC etc who are no doubt as agrieved with current BOD over IRC sale as Pi s are, but willing to buy in at the lowering price, and maybe an early takeover bid offer at say 24p, whereas we should be heading back to 30p by the summer if all allowed to go well.Maybe just grit teeth for a week or two, and things will look better.

UK wholesale 462 p per therm future Jan 2022. ( unbelievable! ) I think we are going to have very high home gas bills if this carries on through the winter. ( 91 p therm july 21)

All european hubs have rising prices while USA gas price has fallen back recently. Europe ( germany) up to 140 euro/mwh
and Uk Gas prices continue to rise , Future UK wholesale for Jan 22 at 360p/therm, - in Nov 21 it was 175 p/ therm, up from 91 p/therm in July 21 . Obviously there is the NATO- Ukraine tension/Russian supply issues adding to the current price mix, with Russia pressing for long term contracts, and europe not willing.
Keeps adding every month to the case for a new Corrib field for transition period - is it to be Inniskea?If only we knew.

Finn Capp have a relatively low value ( risked) on Pennistone at the moment but surely that would increase signfcantly when work to access pennistone are completed...or earlier, when new CPR is produced.

FRom EDR annual report "Our focus for the coming period will be to remove the constraints
to production and optimise oil and gas production from the development of other hydrocarbon bearing reservoirs to access the contingent resources with particular focus on the *****toneFlags reservoir.Consent has also now been received to install a combustion plant to facilitate gas to electricity generation, which will add anew potential revenue stream to the Wressle field development.
Environmental monitoring throughout the operations has shown no measurable impact on water quality, no seismicity and that noise levels have been within the permitted levels".
I note that planning appeal permission in Jan 2020 gave consent for a gas engine and electricical grid connection, so I dont see what the new consent is. I have checked its not a planning consent frpom North Lincs- at least I cant see it, so is it from OGA. ? or national grid?

Clear as mud on progress as always. No clear timescale when new combustion plant will be installed.

New highs, Euro spot market 117 euro/MWh. Euro Month futures 118 euro/MWh

It is disappointing we have no news on Morrocco,and Corrib is still uncertain.,so a lot rests on the CPR for wressle. Trying to stay positive that January 22 will be much better.It is annoying that end of Jan 21 SP was 2.00p , and it's the continual operational delays and lack of other news has resulted in near half price since then.