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Last year profit after tax £1.35m .this year should be higher if they can offset serenity drill costs against higher tax. So not sure where the "£5.0m profit " comes from? lets be realistic.I suspect we are going to get an RNS on 30 dec saying the gas equipment for wressle is still on the delivery truck and will be installed january february.. the high tax is a killer for any quick development of serenity or even pennistone although they could get the drill underway and claim tax relief even if production is delayed to 24/25.hope government will review the tax rates next year if oil price falters.
S.O. promised last month the first part of gas monetisation-the on site generator would happen by year end. Still no confirmation of that, and when will EDR put in planning application for pennistone work. This has taken a year of delay on this issue already. Lets have some more answers, please someone here attend the meeting.
Good to hear that this use of Ashover gas may be resolved by end December or probably early new year.Increased production is positive and should give a boost to share price..They really need to get the planning application in for pennistone..as this is the larger and longer term producing formation, at Wressle but with a high gas content..so if they can get that to the gas grid that will be ideal.. will need capital expenditure in new well drill and equipment and maybe short pipeline.Lets press for the details ,of this in early 2023.
The Wressle gas production is good but lack of EDR progress on gas to power is extremely disappointing and there is no futher information provided after a year saying it's on the programme for next period.no sign of any planning application gor that or on Pennistone. Just gas going up in flames when it could be put to use surely..just hope Eog have something more positive to say on Serenity shortly
Look forward to positive results and I think we investors deserve a long awaited update on the Wressle gas equipment from EOG and EDR. The revised energy levy came into effect May 22, so limited effect for financial year to July 22. As i understand it, last year 21-22 profit will be taxed at 40% ( 30% corpn tax and 10% levy) increasing this year to 65% and the 91 p £ tax allowance for investment costs.. For Serenity costs that will be in te 2022-3 years accounts. Be interesting to see how the acountants have handled previous costs/set off against tax at Wressle, Crosby et all.
More Serenity CPR news in December?
Boltok I agree net income close to £3m, but after tax at 40% and P/E. of 6 , the current market value ia not far off. I did suggest abase figure of 1.6p here a few months back prior to serenioty drill, but that was assuming we would have some certainty of the gas to power equipment being installed. Despite S.O assurance I would still likle to hear that from EDR and then we might get back to 1.6p. If we get any good news on serenity in next month or so we might see 3p again . We also might get information sometime, probably after the pennistone drilling on any revised oil water contact in Ashover which could increase reserves dramatically. Its good the well is stll producing at a steady 750 -800 bopd,. hopefully that will be confirmed Monday or we could see a further decline.
The accounts may show some set off of costs against tax. Lets see.
I think when we get firmer knews on the Wressle gas to power resolution, hopefully soon, for year end installation, the share price should pick up., as the gas needs to be sorted prior to drilling pennistone, which is gassy, again we should have that in 2023, but remember the drill cost. With clearer news on that, including planning application date, all will be rosy. In the meantime , share price is just very poor, reflecting lack of news. With good news on Serenity also possible, well thats all I can hope for by year end.
I had expected an operating profit of between £0.5 and £1m this last financial year to July 22. Serenity expenditure will be in next years accounts, with a much bigger Wressle income set gainst a £4.5 m Serenity expendture, so at best breakeven. I think the tax advantage of Serenity will be felt in the following year to July 24 where profit will be maximised with no tax due because of the tax set off of 90% of the £4.5 m. I'm not an accountant, so maybe theres a better outcome.
Balance sheet this year will look ok, with additional £2.5M still in the bank.
Yes, maybe we will get an extra 1,000 bopd from Serenity if Repsol go ahead. Have to wait for the revised CPR to see the possibilities.
Lets give EOg i3 a bit of time.. 6 weeks to come up with a clearer plan for Serenity.We could even be pleasantly suprised...with 11 ft oil sand compared to 3 ft at Tain..there is a chance we could have something comparable to Tain ..just a hopeful guess..I also think Wressle will seem better managed at year end.I don't understand this idea of changing direction...heaven forbid any other wild projects...just get Pennistone sorted next year...and maybe Serenity will suprise.
The only way Serenity has value depends on Repsol Sinopec going ahead with Tain and being convinced the reinterpretation of the serenity seismic data is valid and shows a significant field .Serenity may not need another appraisal or even a production well if it is connected directly to Tain...so potentially low cost.Im guessing here. We will have to wait the CPR...and what Repsols reaction to that is considering how i3 got the sand stratum mixed up this time round. If a deal is reached I expect R.S. would want 1/3 value of the field.
Did S.O get his big bonus last week .? If so, makes my mood even gloomier. . Yes agree, starting to think SO is reckless and I do not want to hear of any other projects . Lets have Wressle sorted and an update on remaining Serenity resource asap. I have written into EOG today see if he ( or EDR) can give an update on Wressle.
Very dissapointing news this week, but it was a risk. see talk on i3 chatroom about brokers suggesting a link to Tain may still happen, if similar to Tain could be 10mmb recoverable in east of licence. Repsol Sinopec have put off a decision on Tain to next year? so its uncertain. As to the ongoing saga about gas and pennistone at wressle, I still do not see any application to N Lincs Council for planning approval. Come on EDR !! lets have an update if they are serious about this winter. We need the gas sorted to get income moving up, and share price to recover.
Stas, thanks, SO has said the £1m loan will be paid back to UJO if not needed.. there is the 11% interest to think of if holding onto it longer term. Yes ,hope it is needed, and by end of this year EOG may well have enough cash to hand from Wressle to fund their share of any additional appraisal side track if the field is bigger than expected, or just to clarify the field boundary. Heres hoping anyway.
Do we know when year end to July 2022 results are published- Early or late October? I expect profit to be in order £0.5 to 0.75 m , and next year above £1m , depending on price oil, dollar rate ,and if they go ahead with gas monetisation at wressle. So I can see they did not have enough cash for a side track if required at serenity- so better be prepared as they have done with £1m loan. Just speculation but they ( 1 3 and EOG) may try to dilute their ownership of serenity if successfill drills, with major farm in to ease the costs of production- which could be huge. Better to have a smaller piece of the pie that will be producing than not. That I think would be good for there share price. My only worry , are majors still interested in north sea. ?
Tennyson Valuation for existing wressle , crosby etc was 1.7 p including 2C potential. however that was before the upgrade from Caffney Cline - the 5 years 800 bopd plus potential much more if lower water oil contact is proven. So surely 1.6 p is the bottom line, rising again when gas monetization is finally brought into play. As to Serenity, working with Repsol on Tain extraction does seem to me the best bet. If the appraisal well shows modest increase in resource then Tain tie in is definite. If SO talks the talk about a stand alone large field, great stuff, but where are they going to get the money for a production platform. It could make economic sense if whole field is worth 1,000 m dollars and costs of a fixed platform is 200 m dollars . I dont like the idea of a floating production vessel in rough north sea. Is the idea a Major will fund a production project without taking a whopping share of the cake. Although I'm no expert in this, I suggest get speaking to Repsol asap IMHO.
From GAFFNEY CLINE- UJO. - Ashover grit -The current Reserves at the Ashover Grit and Wingfield Flags in respect of 2P figures according to GaffneyCline stands at 670,000 bbls of oil as at 30 June 2022. This figure is post past production figures of 203,000 bbls of oil, a substantial upgrade to the originally reported recoverable Reserve.
This equates to 2.3 years more production from ashover grit alone, at 800 bopd. However there is the very significant proviso that if oil water contact in the trap is much lower ( they must have some indication it could well be) than used for the estimate for 2p reserves , then 2.43 MMbbls are potentially recoverable. Thats over 8 more years from Ashover alone at 800 bopd . Interesting., but it would be useful to know when we can be more certain of that. Will drilling into Pennistone help with answers?
Is that just 0.27% share dilution and a bit of cash in return, shouldn't affect capital value too much. I also thought we'd had the CPR report already .I understood he 5 year 800 bopd was subject they implemented the development plan for pennistone, which may well need more wells drilling. What we need is some progress in gas monetisation/clear pennistone plan progress. , and how much is that going to cost. ?
Just waiting for good Serenity news but thats a month away really. I think its worth the 50/50 gamble to wait, although frustrated by current share price. Was it 3.5 p in february?
Annual results, production 72 bopd at crosby ect.. (maybe more,) average over year $70 : wressle 6 months 225 bopd net, @$90 overheads up on salaries, down on office costs , allow some development costs for morocco, pennistone, serenity, I guestimate net profit before depreciation, & tax end July , around £1.5 m