Member Info for Copper3

There is some glimmer of real hope that the Eire energy review this year will come out in favour of more gas, as Corrib is acknowledged to decline. There is the technology that Germany is investing in, and also UK that will mean a mix of hydrogen from electrolysis by green enlectricity will be fed into gas main system for home heating , ans well in the gas to electrity power stations . This will give gas a green credential. Secondly, Gas prices in Europe are up to $5.90 ( US hub price is still around $3.00 but has come off a low at least). Compared to the previous European gas price of $6.6. to 7.00 in winter 2018 ( higher in winter of 2019) at least gas prices have been rising back up and that may bring some commercial interest to Corrib again. Hold, keep an eye on prices and and Come back in 6 months for more news.

18/01/21The Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications (DECC) is carrying out a comprehensive review of the security of energy supply of Ireland’s natural gas and electricity systems. The focus of the review is the period to 2030 in the context of ensuring a sustainable pathway to 2050. The review will include a full updated technical analysis of the security of supply challenges which will help inform a public consultation.
Following the depletion of the Corrib gas field, Ireland is expected to be dependent on over 80% imports by the mid-2020s and over 90% by 2030.----
Lets see what comes of this- going to be a slow process Im sure, but there is some daylight to a decsion.

Brezhnef - Inniskea- lets hope we get some sense from Irish government after the energy review this year, and European gas prices increase a bit more. We might get some real intertest then.
Wressle- I think I finally understand that the propsed Ashover 500 bopd is after the extended well testing , well/field design with pumped production , that explains why is so much higher than 2015 test flow of 80 bopd. About half of that initial total test flow of 710 boe pd was gas( mainly from Pennistone), - we'll soon find out how the Ashover is producing, and perhaps we can expect details soon on how they will deal with future gas. Its never straight forward at EOG.

We should get an RNS thursday ( maybe friday) to coincide with AGM to at least say Wressle still on track. My own view on share price is slightly confused as trying to make sense of production from wressle which hopefully will be cleared up in next 10 days. OIL in place 2,15 mmboe , 500 bopd and net to EOG 150 bopd has been stated numerous times in last year by EOG and Finn Capp, so iI'm reasonably happy that will happen. Looking back on field survey data ( 2015-6) it looks like main part of oil is in Pennistone, so Ashover may only last first 3 years, then there would have to be work to bring Pennistone into play. The flow rates at that time were similar fror Ashover and Pennistone., although stated at that time as around 80 bopd (oil.) plus additional gas for each reservoir , so that confuses me., which is not good as an investor. I can hold till we at least get confirmed production rates. For inniskea we will have to see if there is any change in stance of "do nothing about Corrib," from Eire government later this year. I note more wind power projects are proceeding or planned in South of Eire sea ( ex Kinsale gas field) , whether that is good ( enough to make the Greens happy) or bad for Inniskea in overall energy supply equation we'll have to see. Overall I think 2.0 p share price is fair at present.

There is some confusion on geological layers..... From EOG July 2020 report, testing achieved 710 bpd from 3 reservoirs, Ashover Grit, Wingfield Flags and Pennistone Flags.
500 bpd expected on production, with Pennistone indictated for future development. So I don't expect more than 500 bpd initially., even if Wingfield is included. I also note that Enironment Agency 2017 permit as amended is for a once only use of Hydraulic fracking fluid at 1580 m vertical depth( descibed as Ashover grit and Chatsworth Grit) So any other field development which needs an "acid wash" treatment would need another EA consent, although maybe not a fresh planning approval, depending if existing well can be used for Pennistone. I would like to hear more on that in next 3 months or so to give added encouragement to hold on in here. Inniskea my still be a long wait.

Looks like we will start the year well with Brent at $53.0 and Opec + keeping prodiction to current production limit helpful in short term. Fingers crossed for no work over hiccups.

Tacuma, agree with your comments, unfortunateley EOG has committed another years spend at Morocco to keep the licence open, but I think is 500k max. Hopefully that is the end of it. I think they are still interpreting the existing seismic data. If they could find gas then it would be worthwhile but no indication of that yet.What would be nice would be a political or technical hiccup to russian gas supplies, that would help iInniskea. Its a waiting game, but EOG could get more out of Wressle in near term subject another round of permissions, which would be easier to obtain this time.

getting all well head equipment in place, carrying out the acid wash 'frack"was going to take time and I did wonder if they could do that before xmas- Now we know. Its a bit dissapointing-they never seem to be honest until the last moment. Glad they mentioned Pennistone forrmation, which seems a better course of action to me than pursuing morocco , even inniskea at the moment.

There was some concern that there is not an appropriate mining waste licence for lquid waste . I have checked Environment Agency Mining permit May 2017, EPR AB3609. This permit covers storage and handling of oil production and all waste from hydraulic fracturing- for conventional oil. There is also a permit for gas flaring, but I think there will now be a gas powered electricity generator on site instead--but I dont see that on recent aerial photo- Has anyone have knowledge on that ?

Good oil price recovery last few days. Trusting that OPEC will keep the January production cuts to keep oil market in balance,and give us minnows a chance. Oil may get to $50 if OPEC and american shale cuts stay in place. Low cost production at Wressle = good profits. Surely they cant mess it up now. We must be close. Next week perhaps.

Like many here I wish I'd sold out two years ago when I first saw the Irish Green Energy /climate change bill, but always had hope that Wressle was imminent. !! Now two years later, !! finally we are close, but its nerves and my large holdng here that makes me post. I don't hold out much hope for morocco, and Iniskea will only happen when there is sufficent commercaial pressure from high gas prices,which isn't happening at at the momet but may come good next autumn/winter. So that leaves Wressle as the one certainty., and hope that they can continue to produce a fair amount from Crosby etc. I dont write Wressle off as a side show, as there are the other oil formations in pPennistone grit to bring into production at some point, - i'm not sure the technicalities or costs of bringing in the added production, but Finn Capp brokers who may well be company biased , reckon that is where EOG and partners should concentrate their efforts. Low cost production means it should be very profitable .Need to stop expenditure on Inniskea and Morocco as soon as its possible (after current committments) - and just wait and see on those "assets".

Brent oil price holding above $44.00 Looks promising going into 2021, with demand already increasing in India. if prices do edge up toward $50 by the spring then share price will be rising too.
Good times ahead.

I see a drop in EDR price today, not sure that I undertstand that- do they need to raise cash.? Hopefully we can believe Simon that EOG has enough cash left in our pot still. It is amazing though how they spent £3m last few years , and I feel Morocco might be one step too far.- lets see if Oil price can hold up and improve by Xmas. gas price has gone down again- may thats the relative mild weather. Its a bit uncertain on gas future, if UK starts ripping out gas boilers in next ten years., ( will Eire do the same?) although gas will still be needed for power stations.
Perhaps a merger with EDR , and save some of directors bulging salaries might be usefull.
GLA

Wraith good to hear that, I remain optimistic,and trust you are too, and posts about more waste licences required seem a bit spurious to me. Lets keep the faith.

Wraith and Rolands, you've got to be joking. please sell up then asap.

Planning conditions : approve the site plans- development in accordance with highway documents- approve noise managment plan, hours of operation etc- approve construction quality assurance- approve lighting controls- approve dust mitigation- protect watercourses, monitor boreholes,load testing of the site, - minimise impact on biodiversity- permission limited to 15 years from start of production- then restoration of site.
Groundwater boreholes were sunk May 20 with 3 months monitoring to follow.
As of July 20, all documents apart from details of any well stimulation rig had been submitted for approval. Looking at recent RNS from EDR and EOG and aerial photos,there is no reason to believe there are outstanding issues, but we P.I .s would be the last to know, no doubt.
The environment Agency permit for mining operations was granted to Egdon Resources in 2014, as varied. 2017, and suprisingly they also have a permit for radioactive waste granted 2018.
Not sure how any outstanding permit for hazardous waste ( if required) fits in to all that.

Electrics on site to be finished soon- will they need to install a pump? . I dont recall seeing that on planning application. So surely next two weeks for good news finally, I guess we will hit 1.6 p then retrace a bit until oil price picks up in Spring . 2p still possible next summer.

Broker Peel Hunt said: "We are increasingly confident that some key themes will continue (working from home, more cooking from scratch, online penetration), which will improve longer-term growth prospects.
"We continue to see considerable potential from the improving cash generation, as well as the transfer of debt into equity. The shares have increased materially, but there is still plenty of upside as the rating reflects a more normal balance sheet. The shares are trading on 10x price-to-earnings and 8x EBITDA (including the pension deficit) to March 2022E. We upgrade our target price from 120p to 125p."

Peel Hunt rates the stock at 'buy'.

Kenj, yes I do think this recent half year report was downbeat on share price because of he bond write down/ impairment figure., but also delay in appointing auditor, and long delay in appointing independant directors- Are potential directors put off by spurious or otherwise moscow court cases, ? and what about the third party concentrate being processed at higher cost/lower margins. In the end surely UGC, (and other large shareholders) will want to see POG be a successful company, and must realise UGC have to agree a fair price for their concentrate to reflect costs. The Chairmans report was fairly positive , and I take a lot of hope from that, as he stressed again need for independant directors, and better cost controls. Once new directors are appointed and being acceptable to London market, and also Moscow, then share price will rise back to 40p plus quickly. IMHO

Trying to stay positive with all this, hoping gold price will rise again., and we get news on independant directors soon. As to the convertible bonds, RNS says it is a non-cash adjustment, or impairment, so no real cash impact. dilution of future profits, There may be another impairment for the remaining bonds ,( is that 30% now) ? if share price rises significantly before next accounts, but that's just an accounting issue we have to put up with.