Playing with AI6 Jul 2025 14:39
Here’s the updated capital structure of Rockfire Resources PLC as of July 2025, now including the 2 billion new shares issued in the recent £2 million placing:
Updated Share Capital Summary
Pre-Placing Shares 4.13 billion
New Shares Issued 2.00 billion (July 2025 placing)
Total Shares in Issue 6.13 billion
Options Outstanding
Total Options 57 million
Exercise Price 0.32p
Expiry 19 December 2027
Warrants Issued
Total Warrants 1 billion
Exercise Price 0.1p
Term 24 months from July 2025
Fully Diluted Share Count (if all exercised)
Issued Shares 6.13 billion
Warrants 1.00 billion
Options 0.057 billion
Total (Fully Diluted) ~7.19 billion
This gives a clear picture of Rockfire’s potential dilution and capital structure going forward.
Want to explore how this affects market cap or per-share valuation at different project NPV scenarios?
Here’s how Rockfire Resources’ capital structure and valuation stack up when we factor in the fully diluted share count and project economics:
Market Snapshot (July 2025)
Share Price 0.10p
Shares in Issue 6.13 billion
Market Cap (Current) ~£6.13 million
Fully Diluted Shares ~7.19 billion
Fully Diluted Market Cap ~£7.19 million
Project Valuation vs. Market Cap
From our earlier NPV estimate:
Estimated Project NPV: ~£500 million
Current Market Cap: ~£6.13 million
Implied Discount: ~98.8% below estimated project value
Even on a fully diluted basis, the market is valuing Rockfire at ~£7.19 million, which is still less than 1.5% of the project’s estimated NPV.
Interpretation
This suggests significant upside potential if the project advances successfully.
The market may be pricing in execution risk, funding uncertainty, or timeline delays.
If Rockfire can de-risk the project (e.g. via feasibility study, offtake agreements, or strategic partnerships), the valuation gap could narrow substantially.