Member Info for Contrary

AW is someone I can get totally behind, he comes across as someone who knows what is going on in the ground in technology terms, he (and his family) are there on the ground where the work needs to happen, he has demonstrated he has great contacts and is able to persuade them he is good to back - including BHP, he has worked in corporate finance and knows how the markets work and he has put his own money into the company. Happy to sit on this for a good while and let him do his thing.

BHP taking the time to visit EST in country!- https://www.linkedin.com/posts/marley-palin-91a212115_kazakhstan-copper-activity-7192118199704866816-y12v?utm_source=combined_share_message&utm_medium=member_desktop

I can not see why these options should be granted at nothing - it is a pure bonus of £250k and £150k for just hanging around for three years and maintaining the current share price. Not impresses at all. Plus, they can not be HMRC approved EMI options excluding them from income tax - who is paying that - the company no doubt.

I am new to this company, but am a holder.

I would be interested to hear others view on the growth of the company and how much development is taken to intangibles rather than going through the P&L - to me it looks as though LPMs are the star of the year but how much of that revenue has to be shared with the partners - or is that $16m just our share? Also, why did the core business seem to only grow 15%, if I am not mistaken?

All info gratefully received.

Generally, an extremely docile board for such a large (AIM?) company!

Naheed is required but I would have thought that the others should really consider their positions - most have managed the value of the business down to an apology of what it should have been years ago. Everyone is far too cosy and it will be interesting to see who is subscribing in the placing - family and friends?

There are times when it is not prudent for the CEO to reply or respond - I have found Alex quite approachable and certainly someone who is totally committed to making a success of things. I believe he has taken his family out there - can't ask more than that for intent!

I would try again in a couple of weeks.

This is at the same speed that the Prof gets to the point! Must be a hand held auger and a prospectors pan.

Not sure why you are picking 285p when you can go back a little further and select £4 or £5. Divs and interest are irrelevant in the whole picture of the short.

To retain the short I assume they believe it has further to go down or they believe an event will happen that will enable them to pick up the stock.

I am curious as to what that might be?

If you wait until the bottom then additional people would also be thinking the same and hopefully be buying, and that would put further pressure on a squeeze.

I hate them, but I have to admire their foresight (which probably included a great amount of research). However, how far will the price decrease from here and therefore is it worthwhile still running the short?

Most of the shorts have done incredibly well on paper - but that is nothing until you have executed an exit. The level of shorting requires an event that scares enough people to sell all at the same time so they can pick up the required stock without anyone noticing or someone wishing to move on who has that level of stock - mentioning no names.

Any leak of the first shorter trying to close their position will probably result in a squeeze with Linda's buy back heaping on the pressure and any "working together" must be tenuous.

The ongoing cost of running the short must be building with interest and dividends eating into their (substantial) profit.

So I'm intrigued as what the shorters are expecting to happen to give them their exit.

I can't see HBR doing a capital raise to help them out and, with the cash generation, the buy backs will continue.

Any theories out there?

Strange that there is no mention of gold!

With a total of just under 1,000 shares purchased between them for £750 the company will have a £300 (?)RNS charge - is it really worth it? Save your pennies and do something a bit more meaningful!

Such a clinical update with no bedside manner - such a shame AA did not add anything re cash, outlook, buyback, div, etc.
Silence is not always golden.
Still holding on, in hope.

With a current market cap of £300m and £100m in net cash the enterprise value is only £200m and they will produce a good chunk of that in free cash this year. TFT prices, although much reduced from their last year highs, are still 4+ times what they have been historically - and that was what the purchase of the current production was valued on (plus potential new developments) - minus the new taxes, sadly.
I still have faith and am going to sit tight and wait.

I do not believe that AA has to wait the six month period end any more since the announcement of the corporate action by Serica - I think that allows Kistos to revisit it, if they want.

I look forward to seeing what the percentages can reach as it goes up :) !

Is not the difference that coking coal is the raw high quality coal out of the ground and coke is the processed coking coal. So the extra facilities funding is for the processing plant to make a finished coke product?

From what I can see - those two late reported trades of £10m each must have been purchases. It would be great if that was followed by a short reduction notification rather than a company buy back notification!

Hi LeFlic
Lucky you/well done for being in since the IPO - Unfortunately I was unaware of it at the time.

Sometimes something needs to be said to start a discussion - although I think my comment is valid. Totally accept "why say anything if there is nothing to say." However, I do think that, in the current climate of such extraordinary commodity price changes and therefore extraordinary cash generation, a regular update could/should be given to the market re cash and cash equivalents. It is unreasonable (although not against the rules) to not give updates when this figure will be (hopefully) such a large contributary part of the value of the business - subject to that unknown tax liability question.

I can not believe that the price of TTF (https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/TG*1) is 3 times the price it was this time last year and 10x the year before - which is when Kistos negotiated to buy it - so extraordinary times indeed.

Someone is asking about dividends - I do not think a dividend was ever talked about by AA - however, dividends can only be paid out of distributable reserves (which do not have to be in relation to the previous year end accounts. Anyway - the cancelation of the share premium by £50m does increase what could be used for dividends and/or share buy back and cancelation.

Previously someone else thought share buy back would not be good for the company, however, I believe it would be the better option for AA over a dividend - he personally would pay tax at higher rates on divs and only 20% CGT on a buy back, if he sold a few. But then I am sure he is looking at the bigger picture! I believe the existing loans/bonds would have to be redeemed before that happened though - or those bonds altered a bit.

I look forward to knowing what the cash position is and even more so, whether AA can structure a deal that the market can understand and thinks well of! Tricky to achieve - the market didn't seem to be positive about Loggan - I thought it was great!

I joined in on Rockrose late in the day but I was impressed by AA's presentations and how he delivered his news.

I have been unimpressed with the communication level starting with the approach on Serica right through until now. I can only assume that the analysts have been getting more air time or they are having to fill in the blanks themselves.

I am aware that a lot of companies are not issuing news at the present time so that they can keep it for more generally positive times rather than waste good news on a bad day.

But radio silence - I just hope it is for really good reasons but would like to see something! Just grateful that it is so cash generative and can still keep the faith. But some PR/support would be "nice!"

It means that the share premium account is reduced and the value is transferred to the P&L account - increasing the amount that can be distributed by way of dividend or used to cancel shares on any buyback.