Member Info for Contrary

Hi Soder

EV 1 to 1.5x and in the FTSE 100 - probably never before!

Once again, I find the lack of clear information annoying and I would have thought it would be in their interest to lead iis to a positive outlook, if that is what they believe they have achieved - which I think they have.
Cash a the end of June €148 and end of Aug €154 - two months with one month shut down (for gas) - +€6m only but after making the completion settlement on Logan - firstly, from memory, I thought that this was not due until Jan and secondly it could be upto €40m - did they generate €46m net cash from one month's production.
Sure I am wrong here - but please AA - give us some clear figures and narrative!
Still a strong supporter.

Why would you voluntarily pay tax on a dividend at the highest rate to then invest the net proceeds somewhere - I am assuming that AA is still comfortable from the proceeds from the sale of Rock Rose?
With Kistos buying back and cancelling shares he is effectively reinvesting in Kistos without the deduction of tax.
A dividend would be nice though and would go down well with IIs as well as PIs - so that would have a positive effect on the share price.
If AA needed the cash I think he would go for a placing of a part of his shares with an institution(s) and pay only CGT - less than half the IT rate.
How lovely to have that problem!

I am interested in Kistos, SQZ and Harbour (in O&G - well and Eco Atlantic but not in this league) and my view is that

1. They are generating enormous cash amounts and HBR are able to pay off large amounts of debt if they can not find a deal or find a rig(s).
2. SQZ have a pile of cash but have to show they have the imagination to do a deal - they haven't so far. But they do have development opportunities if they can locate a rig(s). I have read on someone's post that having cash defends them from a takeover - I disagree, my view is that if a company does not have use of the cash it should be returned to shareholders and if a profitable growth company, a slice of debt results in greater returns to the shareholders.
3. Kistos normally great at doing deals and structuring them.

Any of them doing a deal will suffer about "at what price?" I do not see how any price will not be questioned now and only time will tell whether it is good or bad.

The real risk factor across all three is what will governments do? I have no idea on this one and am glad it is not my decision as I just can't get my head around it!

AA at Kistos is not going to be keen on a large divi so I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't propose a large buy back to use some of the cash if he can't find a deal in the near future. They tidied up their balance sheet at the last AGM and they will have the current year's profit to use on a buy back.

All of them could take a risk on a exploratory or development opportunity as the cost could be lost in the roundings at the present time and there are a lot of small companies desperate for a cash backer.

I still can't get my mind round the Enterprise Values of these businesses!

I really really wish Kistos would give detailed info so we can make a good decision rather than a calculated guess!

Does anyone know when they are due to announce anything?

Does anyone know when the next update will be/scheduled?

Having thought about the past few weeks I have come to the conclusion that
a) conversations did take place between both companies, but they never got that serious as both sides thought (rightly) that their company was under valued and needed to be seen as the acquirer.
b) neither side gave any information to support why they should be worth more or why they should be the accepted acquirer.
Conclusion - both sides just wanted to bring their businesses to the market's attention and possibly get PIs in one to also be invested in the other.
Be interesting to see what the legal and professional fees are/were - I am pretty unimpressed by the whole (lack of) circus!
I am now a shareholder in Serica now though - so that side worked.
I just want some clear data to understand the value of both businesses.

No real comment from him since his statement that he would try and talk to both sides, near the beginning of this escapade. Assume neither side would talk on the record.
Looking at his recent blogs - it just looks as though he is copying and pasting RNSs with a couple of lines added. Hoped for more from him.

I really do not see how AA can make a confirmed bid without giving an update on Kistos and saying how it will be able to "afford" the takeover (and why Serica shareholders should take Kistos shares) - so no doubt this would also need a statement on the company's cash position/generation?
So will we be in for an informative update over the coming days? If so, that should hopefully prop the share price either way, should the deal fall away or if the revised bid increased. I continue to be very positive but would love to have something concrete from the company to base it on!

I wonder at what stage Kistos will give a clear picture on profitability, cash and debt? I assume both Kistos and Serica will have to soon.

Ahh - I thought you had found Malcy's promised follow up having talked with AA et al.

Has Malcy posted his comments anywhere - only a copy of the RNS is on his blog site?

Both companies are undervalued (in my view) so for one to say that the other's offer is not reflecting full value is irrelevant. It is more important to have a relative valuation in a "merger" that would allow the combined group to benefit shareholders.
Still believe AA would give a better return in the medium to long term as the Serica BoD have not been as active and will surely change over that period due to age - so following AA either as an "independent" or AA running the group.
Serica has certainly done extremely well for its shareholders!

Exciting times - I like the move but more importantly I am looking for a lot more detail having to be disclosed to support the proposition - details that have really been missing up until now.
The opportunity of a combined group company being on the main list in the 250 would be a great shareholder value add.

It is so annoying not getting any signals on cash - it is strange that they issued a charge to Barclays in mid June - that may just be to replace bond holders thus removing their agreement conditions or even for something more.
Great news on the completion!

No - not the same, I only have the one account.
I thought he was referring to an earlier post of mine - agree with you TFF price is climbing and is great for Kistos!

I never said imploding - I said it was great for Kistos - 178 currently - just horrific for the economy in general.

I also find it positive that the share price held but also surprised at the number of delayed notifications - wonder if they were all related?
It is also a month (nearly) since the AGM and having looked at Companies House - I can not see any of the bonus shares being issued and cancelled - I do not think that the court approval takes long at all - more a formality. However, I think it does mean that the company has not been buying any shares back in the market.
I do think we are in for quite a few RNSs over the coming near term.
Dutch TTF price rises great for Kistos but otherwise disturbing.

SpArmada - Normally I would say your comments are right re the date of signing - but this deal has been presented as having effect from 1st Jan so, if completed, should be included in the first 6 months results to 30th June - once again, if completed. Hopefully, no problems on completion.

I am fairly certain that the deal is meant to be completed at the end of the month/now - but I have just quickly reviewed the RNSs and can not see it confirmed/stated anywhere - does anyone know where it was stated? - If at all!

It certainly looks as though it was a done deal - so hopefully no problems.

Many thanks

I believe that the last update shows that they are in the position now of being debt free - from memory they had a net £6m cash - so that would now be larger figure.
It would be interesting to know if the 20% interest in the new acquisition, which would be backdated to 1st Jan 2022, would cover the initial contractual payment and the additional payment of £40m, which I assume would be due, would be covered out of cashflow for the remainder of this year.