Member Info for contrarian123

If you read through the RNS they are planning for a share consolidation of 100-1 at some point early 2018. That will kill off any other investors still remaining and hoping for something. I said it a few days ago Placement, Related party transactions.... etc etc. The plan to extract value for the majority shareholders is in full swing

Snowhouse I have a different view, in that they will have made so much money by skimming profits via their related entities that an increase in share price will not matter that much, so that they can exercise their options. In any case and exercise price of 0.0338 will mean nothing to most people who are still holding with averages larger than that.

And just to add to my previous comment - Dividend is not guaranteed, they never are. But paying what you promised makes for good business of course. Extracts from RNS again 1. GSK expects to pay an annual ordinary dividend of 80p for 2017 2. The Board intends to maintain the dividend for 2018 at the current level of 80p per share, subject to any material change in the external environment or performance expectations.

Guaranteed are only death and taxes :)

Hi TLW Here's one for you. 1. A potentially aggressive spending spree by GSK to acquire divisions from other companies which will inevitably increase debt. This coupled with 2. An increase in debt to fund dividend payments which implies dividend cover may be at threat in the future, although company has re-assured via the RNS that dividend expected to be 80p for the full year and the next, but no Dividend growth until dividend cover (i.e. cash flow) is improved. 3. Pound strengthening All gleaned from yesterday's RNS

Forgot to add that - Of course this is very clever management but not for private shareholders benefit. The only potential spike in the SP I foresee in my magic bal, is if they decide to do some sort of placement for further exploration. What usually happens by clever operators is a "manufactured" increase in SP perhaps by means of an uplift in production or realised profit, then an announcement about placement and then a big drop once the announcement is out.

Musamura I disagree. This company will make profit but said profit will be eaten up by finance or equipment provided by the various MNG entities. This has been evidenced by the latest RNS which shows that various MNG and MNG related entities provide either finance or equipment or consultancy services at a markup. Why put a markup and is this not more or less the same as using sub-contractors if they are providing these services/finance at market rates? No actual profit will be made. All profit will be absorbed by MNG or MNG related entities in the form of fees.

diehard - I hope you have diversified - In the meantime I am only hoping for a temporary spike to recoup my 7K losses

Stevie Keep on dreaming (I mean it in a good way :)) - An advance to FTSE 250 would mean more corporate governance if you get my drift...Ain't going to happen and I suspect you were joking.

What merger fafnir?

Yes - They will find a way. For instance there are other unexplored licences - They could for instance justify further lending for further consultancy and equipment of course from their related companies to initiate further exploration. This will come off any bottom line i.e. the 28M you mention. This will never stop I believe these guys are in (naturally I may add) for their own benefit and not for some of the minority shareholders. The only saving grace might be a temporary spike in the share price because of good results, which is what I am awaiting for to get out of this mess.

Mycool of course it is called business. But hey cast your mind back when AUE was bought by MNG. Why was that? It was because they could leverage their expertise and purchasing power to get it out of the hole it was into. So I ask you this. If they really want to make this company great again why do they lend it money at market rates out of their own coffers? My answer is simple. It is because this is how they plan to extract money out of it. They will extract all the resource that's left but there will never be a profit in the business after all the charges from other companies in the form of related party transactions are paid of.

The 750 AISC figure is a forward statement i.e. an estimate at best. Tell me when even under current management promises have become facts? Low AISC is vanity however EBITDA is sanity to paraphrase a known proverb. There is not sanity for a shareholder here just promises and a track record which does not justify believing in any of them

I have made some simple calculations which may be totally wrong but review them at your own leisure and fee free to disagree. MAPA stands to make Approx. USD 149K from 2.5% markup on equipment loan of 6.1M USD from MAPA. Further agreements will be made with further markup, one would assume. I would expect this figure to grow. The 6.1M loan carries interest. Why would MAPA which is owned by the same person owning ASO charge interest if they had ASO�s best interests at heart? They would give it away for free in my mind. My rough calculations on the loan interest are: approx. USD 500K for the loan part of USD 3.7M and approx USD 280K for the EUR 2M loan. This is over 4 years as per RNS (8 semi-annual payments) I make the total USD 929K. There may well be more if you look at the numerous 3rd party related transactions they are reporting for administrative services, jet use etc. etc. The company reported an EBITDA of USD 0.9M for the last quarter. Draw your own conclusions.

On the question of legality I do not know but safe to say they would be playing by the rules. But that is as far as it goes. If you look at the related party transactions they all have a mark-up. If the had ASO's interests at heart why would they not provide the equipment and services at cost? I am not knowledgable enough to be able to tell you what this equipment might have cost in the open market but why do they not release details of the quotes they received from other suppliers. The use of the jet especially cracks me up. I do not remember the old AUE structure including jet costs in their financials however I am more than open to be proven wrong.

look at the last RNS and you will find how the owners are extracting money out of the business...

One of the reasons is the increase in the value of the pound since Vod are paying a dividend in Euros and also the potentially imminent rate increase by BoE.

Does someone know something about the interims on 14/09 - Or can the last 2 days rise be attributed to wishful/speculative intentions? LTH here with an average of £57 looking to justify an averaging down. BTW kicking myself for not picking some up at 38-39 mark.

Is no news good news or is this company now being slowly taken "off-line". The lack of news is frustrating. Does anyone have anything to offer in the way of information?

Yes the drop will be slow - I am guessing when the true cost starts coming out and when the passenger figures or some sort of BA sale starts. This airline is overvalued by a long mile DYOR