Member Info for condor_forever

Seingred, I can see why you use aaz, hum, tsg etc as comparisons as they are aim listed. Without digging too much, aaz profit after tax in H1 2020 was only $8.6m and H1 2019 was only $6.6m.

If we just process our high grade only, our net before tax is $66m, take off the 30% tax and we'll have $40m.

I agree EL, can't see a JV happening. My only thought is whether calibre want a % of us and whether this is part of the negotiation of the toll milling.

Seingred, all in all, calibre paid circa £100m. 175m shares for financing and 88m shares to b2gold at 0.60 CAD. Then $20m in a loan and debenture which they have since completed on.

Mark is looking at spending 60-70 USD, so half of what calibre paid for 50% output of calibre, so works out much the same I guess. Then, if we add toll milling into the scenario.... Win win for both us and calibre.

Yeah, got out of avct a few months back. It did me well. Managed to top up here.

Yes, drowning in targets. So much scope and resource expansion and all in one location.

I got my numbers wrong when it came to calibre issuing new shares as part of their fundraise.

Prior to the deal with b2 gold, calibre only had circa 48m shares and were only worth around $20m. They were in a worse state than I expected, their market cap was tiny!

They issued 175m shares for financing and an extra 88m to b2gold, so they diluted by 5.5!

Even diluting by 5.5 times, their share price has gone from 0.60 cad to 2.4 cad.

Mark is looking at minimal dilution, hopefully less than 0.25 of our current number of shares in issue.

Calibre needed that deal, they were struggling. We are much further ahead than calibre were. We are in a much stronger position. Roll on this year!

50p a good starting point for 2021 simms.

For fun, who is up for a share price prediction end of 2021?

As we'll have a finance decision sorted in H1 of 2021, I think we'll do well. Mako mining went up 4 x from announcement of their plant financing, pure gold have done the same and calibre have gone up 4.5 x since acquiring b2 gold's mines. With pog looking good this could be a perfect storm for condor.

Based on those comparisons, we could be looking at £2 a share. I'm going to be conservative at say £1.40 by end of 2021. That's if we are still a company by then and not bought out.

Happy new year all. Despite the covid situation, condor have done well. Up 157% this year. Progressing well with the studies, approval of the additional feeder pits back in April/may time and as promised, initiation of site preparation. 2021 will be a good year for condor, looking forward to the finance decision and potential toll milling.

Noel, you are becoming very tedious. Please stop posting for everyone's sake.

A big factor is how many shares will be issued with the next fundraise for the processing plant finance and build. Too many variables at present with possible toll milling, debt to equity +/- throwing in gold loans. We need the share price to be higher prior to the announcement.

Gold has risen over $360 per oz this year. Let's hope for a perfect storm for condor, our timing could be perfect. I'm happy with a 3-5 bagger from here.

Merry Christmas everyone. Have a great time and let's look forward to what 2021 has in store for us condorians!

Apologies, Book5 has since explained the pictures. They were taken at EL Limon and show explotec's machines that may be 'reserved' for us. I am fairly confident a toll milling agreement will be arranged in 2021.

Some pictures from his contact over on advfn. Nice to see some decent site clearance and also some decent looking new machinery. More advanced than I thought, I was imagining shrubs/trees all over the place.

Looks good progress to me.

If we think there will be up to 5m oz, then I'm pretty sure JM will want to keep hold of this and so would I.

Cambells, what do you mean by JM and RB? As in, they'll buy the whole company out or just fund the project?

Don't quote me on this, but I'm pretty sure I heard in the past that Mark has a lot of friends/associates that that been invested in and I'm sure he'll want minimal dilution for all.

On another note, calibre are looking to truck ore from pavon q1 2021 and then look at trucking ore from their Eastern borosi District.

It's a real dilemma, a good dilemma though. Sell once all land purchased and land cleared and all studies completed for North of £1 next year or push through to construction with will be lengthy but could be worth a lot more.

With the continued infill drilling, studies and land purchases, we still have the next roughly 3-4 months to get all this done. Will an offer come in around this time?

Part 3.

Currently our market cap is £56m whilst Calibre's is £470m, so they are valued over 8 times more than we are. If you look at our indicated and inferred resource, if Calibre buy us out, they would pretty much double their current resource. Our AISC is over $200 per oz cheaper and imagine if they just trucked our ore over, it would be much cheaper.

Part 2.

Looking at their current reserves/resources, Calibre have 1.4m at 2.62g/t indicated compared to our 1.14m at 3.6g/t. Calibre have 2.1m at 4.55g/t inferred compared to our 1.18m at 4.3g/t.

Our total indicated and inferred equals 2.32m compared to Calibre's 3.5m. We can easily increase our resource to over 3m and potentially 5m over our 587sq km concessions. Calibre have over 2000sq km over their 4 different locations (limon, libertad, pavon and their eastern borosi district).

Our estimated AISC is $690 compared to Calibre's estimated $906 over the next 3 years. They are projecting their AISC next year to be $1017 (our ore could drop that considerably).

Our projected annual production will be somewhere between 60-70k with our smaller 1,500tpd plant compared to Calibre's 120k oz which they are estimating over the next 3 years.

Based on gold price of $1,800, Calibre's average post tax cash flow over the next 3 years is $80m per year. If we go for the high grade only option, our post tax cash flow will be looking like $46m (I'm also fairly sure we can offset tax from our already $60m investment so far).

Part 1.

I've been thinking whether we can be as big as calibre or whether calibre will buy us out. So I've tried to do some comparisons. More than happy for other people's opinions. To start:

Prior to calibre buying B2 Gold's mines, they were probably at the same size of condor. Calibre bought B2 Gold's mines for $100m and this was part fundraise (issued shares), 88m new shares to B2 Gold and $20m convertible debenture/deferred payment. The shares issued were hardly discounted at the current share price at the time. In total, they issued an extra 166m new shares.

Moving Calibre from an explorer to a produce has seen Calibre's market cap grow by 4 times from CAD $0.60 to CAD $2.50 which it is today.