Member Info for Commonsense5

Don’t know for sure mr anger - where they buy the shares they def won’t pay the interim divi or final so that saves them the divi - I think they will simply pay the £200m to those on the register and to those shares issue on said ex date Dec 3 hence the pence per share will only be defined on the day before - but will check

Was just reading .. the shares bought back are immediately cancelled … RMG no longer had 1bn + shares in issue - it has 999,984,000 ish - bare with me - the point is that we will now get over 20p a share on the special ! The more they buy I think unless it is already set - the higher the special we get !!

Will be interesting how many they bought on Friday which we will see Monday at 7

Just finished one hour 50 minutes listening to the analyst presentation from yesterday. Any serious investor should spend the time. It is brilliant - well done Rmg. On website.

Best thing ; simon thompson starts his bit on Royal Mail by handing straight over to Terry at the CWU who uses phrases like ‘extremely optimistic about the future’ and Simon then concludes with Gary from Unite who appears equally positive. In my 30 years in the City I am not aware of any other companies where the union bosses speak to the City. Culturally brilliant !!

Many many more positives. I will be buying more this morning.

Yes only 15k shares bought by Merrill - as I say they have competition with REAL shareholders who also want to own these shares for this years 40p return !!

Watch for strong share price acceleration now as the penny drops. This stock is the wrong price

What a great statement this am. I bought quite a lot more today.

Exactly what we hoped for ; trading in line, 20p special dividend on top of 20p ordinary divi so 40p back on 480p price - so 8.33% yield this year BUT it is better than that. This is a company that is going to pay out ALL its cash flows to shareholders ‘move to nil cash over two years’ - SO we can value the business on post tax profits potentially ongoing 60p of earnings = return which on 480p is closer to a potential yield of 12.5%. THIS is why the share price is wrong AND why the stock can double in a short period for clever investors. However, new buyers have a problem; there is a BIG new competing buyer out there who wants to buy the stock - the company ! Buying £200m of stock is NOT NOT NOT going to be easy and that itself is going to drive the price much higher.

There are so many good points in the statement I could go on and on and need to do alot more reading back over numbers BUT well done management for knocking it out the park AND well done everyone at RMG. You have an awesome very valuable business.

Mr Oligarch this is desparate these issues are every week

Mr Deryck I agree - hence the importance of this guy Simon Thompson new ceo former Ned who appears very good - but time will tell

In the meantime there remains a parcel bow wave which ultimately is not going too far backwards too quickly and will ultimately increase over the years not go backwards. As I always say if you are in the right sector, you can be pretty poor relative to the best competition but still look good !!

1 day to go …

I simply cannot see what negative news we could get to pull back the share price - to repeat all they said in Sept was profits would be greater in H2 than H1, £401m operating profit H2 will do us v £400m H1 - BUT they made £700m last year in H2 - a £300m profit reduction is ALOT of headwind that is factored in especially when revenue is up 8% first 5 months … hence even with all the ‘headwinds’ there is a lot of comfort factor in guidance - are things really that much worse than this time last year ? We will find out tomorrow ….

Sustainability is about the most important word in the City these days especially to big funds, well beyond good old fashioned valuation (trust me!). Hence I was thrilled to read minutes ago on LinkedIn that Royal Mail has achieved in the S&P global transport sector a top 1% credential and THE best performing postal business (I think globally!?)

This is really fantastic and will definitely help the city story, and valuation !!

I would imagine Thursdays interim will increasingly major on this sustainability piece.

Thank you DerekRocholl - very interesting reading. I guess my question at the minute is that .. it feels like there might be a shortage of capacity in the industry even with the current parcel volumes only being similar to last year, I also hear read anecdotes that Amazon are using RMG more ? Do you think that thesis any truth re capacity issues ? If correct this would in turn help pricing to RMG ?

As I say an interesting post thx

Me Hudson, it helps to know facts on these pages, results are Thursday ! I always think nice if people something of value on the board rather than just ‘going south’ !! Comments like that don’t serve any purpose - trying to say that as respectfully as I can

The chart still looks very good

But fingers crossed

UBS quietly moved to a Hold days ago with the same price target as before 440p - Very strange broking ! Anyway they are a hold now and have probably realised that their thesis was wrong, their scare mongering was very good however

The rest of the analysts last I saw days ago had an average price target of 650p, with JP Morgan saying 805p.

2 days to go …

2 days to go ! … 500p + by end of the week

I don’t know how much of a difference it makes but the retail catalogues through my post box at the minute have seriously grown in number ! I don’t know how much many RMG makes from that but it goes to advertising budgets being v high at minute

450p by Thursday RNS, 500p + by end of the week

A. The cash is piling up … £600m net cash (ex leases) last reported as at end March 21. Since then they paid £100m divi and made operating profit of £400m - so I think net cash as at end September 21 moves to £800m, GROSS cash nearer £1.7bn if you leave the bonds alone. £800m is 20% of the market cap ! £1.7bn gross cash is say 40% !!! So I hope to hear what are the plans Re excess cash ? Tweak divi up a bit to 25p from 20p guidance and a £200m buy back, please and then still loads left over.

2. H1 operating profit they said weeks ago £400m to September 21, and ‘more than that’ in H2 to come so we think £450m. Remember however, H2 operating profit last year was £700m !! This means in this H2 profits go Backwards year on year by £250m, whilst revenue first 5 months is up 8%. £250m is a lot of headwinds (Mr UBS!..) !!… OR H2 operating profits will be decently more than £450m ! My bet is the latter. If you assume even £100m of headwinds then H2 operating profit will be £600m which means operating profit for the full year to March 22 will be … just doing my maths … £1bn !!!!

So … £800m net cash end September, Full year operating profit of approaching £1bn … mkt cap £4.3bn for some of the most nailed on structural growth … I don’t think so - I am fully behind mr JP Morgan and his 805p target and even then it still looks good value

Hold onto your hats …

Awesome story ! Rather amazed RMG could do that ! Thanks for sharing

Mr Teamlh, welcome to our RMG board, we have a few financial guys like me and a great bunch of postmen and post ladies I am sure who give us anecdotes of the post rooms etc. We make sure it doesn’t get personal if we can !

If you can find it do watch Prince Charles’s thank you video of 3 minutes to the Royal Mail a year ago during Covid where the efforts of the Posties were recognised. Reality is the RMG turns out to be a very important UK strategic asset ! It was great to see HRH recognise it. Welcome!

All in jest ..

I relayed to my home RMG board just now how I ventured into the MKS board this morning and I compared it to a Spurs fan walking into the Arsenal clock end. To my slight surprise I was immediately ejected by a loyal MKS fan on the spot without too much consideration. I always generally suggest to my home ground that supporters should NEVER get personal and generally speaking there is more value add than time wasting in our posts. The postmen give first class really interesting posts !

The idea Re RMG was in industry terms a ‘switch’ idea in that you take the 17% MKS gain and then try and do the same again. I am pretty confident that RMG will deliver next week a decent positive gain on their interims. If this is ramping then I suggest a dictionary is required !

I am sure this will be my last MKS post but I think being kicked off the park this morning as an equity investor was a bit remiss as you might make a few £. In fact you would have done already. You also always need to know whether 10x valuation is cheap or whether there are other stocks on 6x .. for example

Anyway, over and out !!

As I said earlier, I ventured overseas this am to the … Marks and Spencer chat room within this chat room. I now know from my bruises this is like a Spurs fan walking into the Arsenal clock end ! I even started off in congratulatory mode and I thought went in pretty Innocous ! Many of the previous posts were around taking profits on the M&S 17% rise on a day - yes 17% !

However they clearly did not like my idea of adding some value left field and I got unceremoniassly dumped off the park. I very quickly left without a fight and gave an apology.

If the Spurs fans bothered to read me post they would be 1% up already !!

My bruises will heal !!

In stockbroking terms where my career was spent it was actually a good switch idea !!

To add to a previous posting of mine Re the bond yields outstanding of £900m total, one 2024 and one 2026 that the company I am sure will run on this meaning Rmg has circa £1.7bn of gross cash in its balance sheet rather than just the £800m ish net cash.

My point before is that typically companies who command a good (low) bond yield have high p/e multiples. Of course this does not hold true for RMG. However, before I said that the coupon was 2.5% which it is HOWEVER I have only just seen that these bonds trade and are at 104p and 106p and are actually yielding nearer 1% or under ! The bond market clearly values RMG highly as a business and correctly doesn’t seem to think RMG is going bust!

For those who may not quite follow this - you can buy in the market RMG bonds at 104p call it. You get 2.5% a year and then you only get 100p back so they are yielding less than 2.5% essentially and under 1% by the time you lose your 4p of initial investment.

At some point the equity penny will drop on RMG !

Agreed Mr Anger - a week today is dday. Funds at the minute prefer to read first buy later ie go through the results rather than second guess - hence one of the reasons you are getting these big moves on the day of results. Another weeks patience required !

I think my first ever post on any chat board was 3 months ago maybe less. Let’s move on.

Apologies am newish to boards - was only an idea not ramping but sorry if it has offended