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Correct Marek

Dan 190 - another quality piece - please keep them coming - especially around their fulfilment capabilities

Many good analysts still 700p +
Rbc 500p having done considerable work

To compare THG to ASOS and Boo is idiotic much as they each have their positives

SoftBank will stay interested. They are all about their own businesses helping each other. I think the s****y automated pop up picking system THG uses is one of their businesses - that is a clever strategy but a big long term game. SoftBank ain’t going away.

We talk about top 5 being 50% as a good starting place for a take private especially as all can take private paper, probably 60% including smaller holders and some individuals. Furthermore several of those top funds have access to further funds to invest further. Those top 5 have the ability to massively increase their % of the business and ultimately double dip and make an even bigger fortune. SoftBank will probably be there to pick up what is left over. For me it is simply about what level that deal is done at - I can’t see below 300p hopefully higher. We will all pinch ourselves at 130p we didn’t buy more.

mr poker chips, I agree. Whilst the world is at the brink of a world war … (if you believe some of the press!) what better time to sneak one of the UK’s best companies off the stock market ! Possibly one of the best ‘averaging down’ oppprtunities the U.K. will ever have seen !!!

Take out prices are usually based on 3 month or even 6 month average share prices NOT a few days of lows. Hence just looking high level at a chart it feels like the 3 month average is 170 ish. Apply 50% min premium to that the starter for ten should be 250p but I would hope 300p+. I fear an opening shot of 400p is unlikely I am sort to tell you mr ‘Hereshopin’ unless a bidding war for take private OR big division starts which is not crazy. SoftBank would def be in the mix.

To repeat, top 5% are 50% ish and can all take private paper. Going private would be a VERY easy deal. Various other funds / holders get them to 60%+. I don’t see why SoftBank need to buy a minority of ingenuity on market when they can just help plug the gap to a 300p take private. A lot cheaper to get a better result. It takes THG out of the limelight so they can grow their business superfast in the private arena which was what the have always done, successfully !!

As I said before, it is not 100% guaranteed but given various main directors bought at the start of the way down and none of them are exactly poor… why would they not buy know. This is stage 1 behavioural science. Something is going on for them to be inside. The big question is what is it !

Exactly

Mr Marek you are bang on

Steve the seller despite senior clearly doesn’t have the same board knowledge privileges, hence he was allowed to deal. My take from the start has been why do directors not buy a few - you always see neds buying their 10k here or there or bigger by execs. But nothing. My take is the BOD are inside, on something…?

As I have said before; either going private OR a big disposal and probably associated follow on big buy back. I def do not want to see plc directors buying in market.

Either of the above means the SP goes up a lot. Not sure we will see 500p without disposal and buy back. 300p will do more.

But yes Mr Marek - I am near agreement with you

Don’t want to get personal kallu so let’s keep this professional

I have 30 years decent city experience - city side not company side - feels like you are company side ?

1. RBC are as professional as they get. They will have rules and regs coming out their ears with every comms channel recorded; what the rbc guys know about and what they don’t know about. I have zero personal relationships at RBC, zero BUT have been up against them a few times and friends who have worked their all are now gone. They are small London relative but massive in America and obviously Canada. As a result there is zero chance as you suggested of them using analysts to achieve anything other than add value to their clients, no games as you suggest. Anything other they lose their jobs in a heart beat. On top of that I think they have previously had very impartial views on those in the sector and I thought some bearish views before on THG. Versus anyone on this board, probably, they have done 300% more work and analysis. With respect this point is irrefutable. Yes, they may have been duped by the company IF the whole thing is a con, but their view is their professional opinion. No stock specific hedge fund (as opposed to Macro fund) would short THG down at these levels. The risk is too great. Market neutral hedgies (buy ASOS short THG) might but I doubt it.

That is my only point.

We have four extremely good supportive points from last three days

1. Rbc 500p target post sensible analysis
2. Decent 24 hour bounce 119p to 129p
3. Decent bounce 129p to 136p
4. Overall market bounce.

All that in the absence of any sign of any company fight back - disposal / go private / buy back etc

If I were the company I would be using a very small part of their liquid resources for an agressive buy back BUT only say £100m max of their £700m liquid resources.

I bought more today

Even in a crap negative market, this stock is going up to 200p quickly and then the institutions will pile in when risk is off back to 300p

Just me view

Kallu for once you are right - we have just been through a horrific down period with mass stop losses, the hedgies will have no doubt not missed the opportunity to be one of the only buyers in town.

The one you were wrong on is the idea that RBC are somehow ramping to get their clients out. This kind of behaviour went out 15 years ago not even 10. No analyst and especially not bulge would play along with that game. RBC are good - I was hugely relieved that someone sensible (and they are) had done the work and concluded 500p of value. They could easily have said 300 or 400p but no, they believe 500p.

You have been right for laser few weeks so respect. I think for the wrong reasons however ! Said in jest. We cannot all be rah rah cheerleaders on this board and your comments have been appreciated !

Thanks for sharing Hosai, BlackRock aside this stock remains a pretty tightly held one with I think I checked 50% in 5 names of long term believers inc MM. I think the top close group long term goes beyond 50% towards 70% but I should check. This makes a register quite powerful. I have little doubt we will look back at where we are as I have said before one of the U.K.’s greatest company’s and I think greatest entrepreneurial management teams who are going for the big play as an incredible opportunity for we small investors to buy in. Yesterday was a very good day when the bottom was unquestionably found. Many investors much prefer buying in at 130 or 135p rather than trying to pick a bottom and catch the knife. The coast is clear now for a proper recovery. I was lucky to buy at 120p and average down in a decent way but I bought them all the way up to 135p too yesterday. Sure we had an inevitable finish off the top BUT the die has now been cast. Very sadly those who stretched themselves are out and the register will improve all the way now I suspect back towards 300p as a starting next target imho. Good luck all.

A quality comment Joner thanks - please all let’s keep the board as value add as possible rather than it acting as an agony aunt and ‘I just bought 10k shares’. Then we can help each other

It was the 5p gaps yesterday that I am sure caused a lot of investors problems yesterday with stop losses - big hedgies well above to cause that - to my anger for those holders

1. Good luck all we are through the worst I feel - treat this as a massive buying opp but ensure you survive !

2. Has anyone got latest short declared positions overall - my only disappointment with yesterdays fall is that I suspect shorts were closing yesterday and buying the stock from those stoppped out or lost final patience - they really upsets me

3. Any other independent broker comments out there this am post yesterday? I am slightly amazed that rbc still run with 500p when 300p would have been sufficiently bullish but great they did - they are a very good understated house

Importantly someone sensible and RBC is very sensible has done a proper sense check and checked numbers and concluded wrong price !!! By quite a long way - I think on a multi billion £ play there would not be many where price targets are 4x current price. Of course downside risk but 125p downside risk and someone thinks 375p upside risk - my kind of odds.

Has everyone seen RBC new view today - 500p target ? Am told previously on the sceptical side - proper upside - limited downside

Just interesting - mkt cap now £1.5bn with a few hundred £m of cash. I think these numbers are right … they don’t mean much but interesting .. On ipo THG raised £920m new money for the company and subsequently £320m again for the company on the follow up placing. Coupled with the ongoing cash in the company - the total of these equates to the current market cap ! Ish. All value pre ipo and on ipo looks to have completely vanished ! Simply an observation as to how cheap this stock is ! To repeat, simply an observation.

Many of us have been patient, we had the trading update with no mention of an update on all the other strategic points going on but we now need that strategic update - minority shareholders are owed that now - we have taken too much pain

Proper value add Dan190 thanks - what these chat rooms should be used for - to help each other

To finish off as it got cut off ‘In the waiting room. Sit tight and accumulate stock carefully.’

Sorry a bit long !!

My second post on THG - I have decent city experience inc several recessions but not overly worried about that in this situation

My take on where we are is as follows

1. We are into extreme value here - I don’t usually talk sales multiples on valuation but it is relevant here as we are sub 1x price to sales versus every global peer / potential buyer of each part of business is 2.5x to 7x sales to value multiple. Given any global buyer will ultimately double sales at least as they push a niche product through their own global channels with higher ebitda too, this is relevant. Also relevant is most massive global buyers would give their right arm to buy my protein in particular

2. No director buying since statement…. tells you the board are inside and simply cannot buy. This point has to be unequivical. IF IF other big holders are also inside then that often takes away the most obvious natural buyers of a stock. The takeover panel limits such inside conversations to a half dozen but I suspect that is where we are.

3. Understand the register - near 50% of the company is 5 names inc MM. Key points - that is a nice start BUT not enough to go private (IF THAT IS WHAT THEY WANTED TO DO) without paying a sensible price for the balance. Most of the top 5 can hold private paper but many other holders cannot. They need 25% more at least to go private but 90% really. I think 350p would be a steal and that 400p more likely but would expect higher. Sad Premiums are based on 3 month average historic prices NOT on Friday nights close ! If I were Managment i would def give up on the public markets but it saddens me to say that. Therefore what is the right price ?. If this is the track they go down they will get on with it no doubt quickly

My huge preference is an ON market turn around where probably my protein or beauty is sold alongside a big contract for Ingenuity to run probably for 10 years thus achieving two things obviously - 1. Several billion of cash in BUT propelling ingenuity into a proper business with obvious very big value and that then gets its 10x sales rating over time. The shares would quickly track to 500p plus. A positive massive double whammy with no doubt not one but several ready buyers who would love to own either division.

The big question is whether the disposal and back to back contract happens on market or off. Remember the Sunday times rankings well pre ipo of the number 1 fastest growth company in the U.K., for several years running - nothing could touch this company and it remains one of the UK’s best global leaders with extremely clever management who will choose the right road for the long term of THG. What they won’t do I have no doubt is a slow turn around and try and persuade hedgies to believe in them. Hedgies will get massively burnt here. It will be soon I suspect as this is a fast pace company naturally and big I would have thought. Either way at 150p we are sitting in deep value and we are in the w