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Have to agree, the wording was pretty poor. The tone is confusing and there are ambiguous statements which are totally unnecessary.
Eg.
"Omega has been well positioned and highly proactive in playing a key role in developing and manufacturing much needed COVID-19 tests for use throughout the world and, more specifically, to also be able to serve the needs of the people of the UK and Scotland."
Why is there a distinction there. Why not say they're well positioned to sell into global markets, both at home and overseas.
That leaves little doubt about what's happening. Wheras you could interpret their statement as them treating overseas differently to the UK. Does the UK get charity or goods at cost. I don't like the word 'serve'.
Can be totally innocuous but why put that sort of wording out there in an RNS. Make it short, sharp, punchy and factual.
No matter what the news, we had 5 weeks of buyers waiting to sell off at profit. This was always going to happen no matter what. The huge shake down to 200p really put the frighteners on and sellers were smart to protect their cash by selling off.
I think sellers today and longer term holders were both disappointed. People were expecting greater profit taking today, over 330 I bet most were hoping for, and holders wanted to see support over 300p today too.
Either way, this is AIM, and the MM and brokers will be there to pull the price the other way. Easy for them now, they collected a ton of cheap shares themselves and it's low risk for them to frustrate people into selling off on a day like today.
We did get rid of a lot of sells though, so this could start to look better going further into the week. NCYT is still up trending and the word is now out. The company is growing, with lots of interesting news to come. A few good 10% days and this is up and over 350p again. Things move fast on AIM, but it's okay to feel down about today's price action. It was dodgy. I don't mind the profit-taking, that's expected, but it is disheartening to watch the MM pull it down quickly and hold it most of the day to frustrate guys into selling off. Would have caught out some momentum traders who went deep in the open too.
I'm still positive and think July is going to be a good month, back into the 300s. That's a short gap to close compared to the 215 close we had in June!
Just need to try not to bite each others heads off in the meantime. It's us retail guys v the MM/brokers. Bet they love it when they track forums and see the infighting. They profit off that.
There's 5 solid weeks of buying at low prices, and the profit taking from those need to be cleared first.
Out of all the Covid stocks however, this is the only one up-trending as far as I can see and I really don't think any other Covid stock is showing actual revenue and projected revenue on par with NCYT. Looking like the horse has bolted. We'll likely see that cemented shortly. There's a whole raft of news we're waiting to hear here all of which will keep the share price growing, especially as other Covid cash floats into here.
The market is deciding the Covid winner outside of this board. We're all looking at the same charts.
It's great, we know NCYT can continue to grow sales, and they've only just launched new products so the revenue from those ill start coming in month on month, they monthly sales updates will give us an idea how fast they're growing, but the bigger news will be this
"Novacyt expects to provide an update on its investment in R&D to support continued growth, including a number of new products and innovations to be launched in the near future."
This is what any Covid BioTech needs to do to transform their company into a major player. Take the Covid cash from 2020 and 2021 and invest it into new areas after putting your brand on the map. There's a few who might pull it off, but NCYT is looking like it has the momentum and cash flowing in to start investing early. Interestingly they had so much cash they could expand and hire 45 staff without doing a placing, all while paying off debts.
I know some guys wanted to see 50 million a month cash, and that might come over the next few sales updates, but we don't want to see cash in bank. That means they don't have a strategy to grow. We need to see the strategy for 2022 onwards, new areas, and techniques to quickly develop tests for new viral outbreaks, persistent respiratory illnesses etc.
Each monthly sales update now will be very interesting, as basically they've got 4 products now to grow from here?
Will be a bad month for other Covid plays because all Half Yearly updates this month will be compared to NCYT's.
Yeah imagine asking people to get jabbed every 4 months!
Can't even get people to wear masks, let alone regular jabs. Many people won't take a jab at all:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/one-third-uk-may-not-get-coronavirus-vaccine-one-developed-new/
Oops, ignore this, Tiptree posted already, my bad!
Looks like Cambridge just wrapped up an antibody study and it doesn't look good. Basically the results show you might not even be able to fight off a second wave. Pretty grim stuff and will need further research but it could go either way.
Either vaccines, if they can actually make one any time soon, will be useless, or you'll need jabbed every few months with people doubting that you're actually protected, or protecting anyone else.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/12/immunity-to-covid-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-study-suggests
Honestly at this stage in our knowledge it's safe to go further than that and outright say that intensive animal agriculture is killing us. Yes we're risking pandemic viral mutations by invading ecosystems, but we're also polluting the planet and breathing carcinogens, eating carcinogens, and gorging on heart disease causing processed flesh.
Pretty serious stuff. There's a religious fervour around meat. To suggest to a lot of people that meat consumption is harmful or wrong they act like you'd offended Jesus or the Big Mo.
Personally I'd like to ditch meat from the diet altogether, intellectual honesty leads you down that road. Hopefully the generations after us learn from our mistakes.
A lot of guys that trade are traditionalists. They'll close out all positions on a Friday no matter what. Doesn't matter the stock or context. it's a rule that keeps them safe over the weekend.
Some famously good traders close positions at end of day no matter what. Guys like Sarao (the flash crash trader) apparently never swing trade. They'll close positions by end of trading daily without exception.
We have to expect that cash to leave our stocks every day or end of week. Sometimes you don't see it as volume is up for whatever reason, but it happens without fail, win or lose for them. Real support today for NCYT is likely around 250p right now. Some swing trade and flaky cash sits there. MM's do a good job of shaking a lot of that money every day though. You probably hate seeing it happen, but the MM's have algos which flush that money out daily and weekly, hence all those artifical tightly controlled dips and rises that go on endlessly on small caps.
Closed last week after all the hype at 287.50p, and after a super disappointing week for anyone expecting figures, it still held at 267.50p by close today.
That's properly nice. A weaker stock would have simply collapsed as traders checked out, but there's solid sticky money here, a good sign.
In terms of news coming through, I think it'll be a sleepy moment that no-one expects this month and this will rocket, catching us all out. Likely to get a flurry of news and some surprises no doubt.
@smokieUK
Yes it's not encouraging but entirely to be expected. Funds have risk profiles and if a stock grows then the percentage that stock takes within the fund becomes too large and you get a call from compliance telling you to sell right away.
There's no choice there. It happens with small caps more than large caps as they can grow unexpectedly quickly in a short period of time. Especially pronounced as Covid hit and a ton of biotechs exploded.
Note that a fund management firm can have as many as 10,000 small caps in their portfolio and they rally don't care if one will multi-bag, go from 300p to 400p or anything else. They're looking for smaller, safer returns within their risk profile. They don't have day traders sitting their playing the market, they spend on average 3 months to research one stock then brief the team on it. Maybe the PM will sign it off and they'll spend weeks (or in the case of small caps) months slowly building that position to not affect the share price. They may stop or pause the order if the price goes out of threshold.
PI's tend to think that funds moving cash in and out is a positive or negative for them. In honesty, it doesn't mean much to PIs at all as the timescales and types of returns they're looking for are very different.
The problem for PI's is of course the selling as when that comes, the price is heavily depressed, and it takes a while to recover as other investors need to slowly rebuy all those shares and return to fair value.
No clue why I typed all that balls out. Feel like typing this morning!
@ RollingInIt
Nearly Covid plays at this stage has some form of test or treatment to sell. Some approved some not. Nothing profound about that, it's a given.
That stage is gone. It's about revenue.
Look at all the Covid charts. All downtrending except big cash generators.
Look, I only posted in here because there was some nonsense talked about GDR being where NCYT ignoring the entire landscape in the market which has changed over the past 3 months. It's misleading and I hope no new investor throws cash at something without thinking clearly about the bigger picture and checking whether the stock is up or downtrending and why.
I will stop posting and let you have the last word as it's ugly to stick the boot in when a stock isn't doing well, but it's also unfair to mislead fellow investors.
@RollingInIt
'Starting to do' is essentially meaningless at this stage when you have plays like NCYT making 30 million a month, and possibly hitting 50 million a month with new products about to hit the market like the winter test kits, mobile testing etc. Existing government contracts, big Pharma partnerships etc.
Think about what you're saying. Even if you believe, the market only cares for solid sales now. The race began months ago.
Looks at the charts. Look what's downtrending. Look what's reversing.
Most Covid stocks will sink, and only a few with huge sales will take the market's cash.
@ RollingInit
Please re-read my comment, it seems you and another poster is misinterpreting the entire context over the use of the term Covid bubble.
Covid bubble refers to the baked in valuations of Covid stocks as they peaked without actual cash generation. Hence the downtrend since. Check all Covid stocks. Nearly all have peaked and downtrended without any reversal in sight (except NCYT which has reversed for 3 weeks now up nearly 25 to 30% since the reversal).
Only cash generating Covid stocks which can show orders 6 to 12 months ahead will take cash now from the market.
Bubble has popped, we know Covid will stay, but it's about WHO is getting the cash.
*I'm looking to grow my account, NOT take a bet.
That should have read as.
@Blustington
The Covid bubble refers to the baked in valuations of Covid stocks which potentially could have generated large sales. That's why most Covid plays have large peaks and have downtrended since as sentiment began to wane over the longevity of those sales.
At this stage we have seen market confidence return that Covid testing will have some longevity as the cases have increased, but the market is more astute now, they're hunting for actual revenue in the half-yearly results in July and August.
Anyone not doing millions per month in sales will suffer. NCYT is already way past that stage. There is an expectation of 30 to 50 million per month. If that is confirmed then it will take most of the Covid FTSE small cap market share and be back to its peak.
Anything else will be left floundering.
I wa also heavily invested in a few Covid stocks, ODX for example for a while. But I'm not religious. If a stock doesn't generate cash compared to its rivals, why would my money be in there. I'm looking to grow my account, but take a bet.
The betting stage for Covid stocks was 3 months ago. Money now goes into cash generators.
@RollingInit
That's highly misleading.
NCYT started much earlier in the pandemic at the beginning of the Covid bubble.
Look at all the Covid stocks, they're nearly all downtrending since their peaks (GDR especially so). The market no longer cares for potential, the market needs to see actual revenue for the downtrending to reverse. NCYT has reversed for 3 weeks now and can continue to do so as it haas extraordinary sales figures.
NCYT is the opposite of most Covid stocks. It's undervalued by market cap compared to sales. That's because the market was unsure if Covid was here to stay as the lockdowns began to ease. Now we're seeing confidence return to biotech but only the top players with big sales coming in each month.
To compare GDR today to NCYT at the beginning of the crisis is disingenuous and misleading. The context is entirely different now.
Thinking about GDR's results today it's clear that we'll have market wide consolidation across all Covid plays. You can spin the half-yearly results on a forum, but the market will be a harsher judge. I reckon we will see Covid cash come into just 2 or 3 stocks with the best half yearlies.
Late July to mid August will be a bloodbath in this market for all but those fortunate enough to be on the podium.
GDR will get more orders I'm sure and do okay. I think some of the posters on GDR's board this morning are making some critical errors though in putting out statements like 'this is how NCYT started'.
That's woeful. NCYT started in a very different context earlier on in the pandemic and with significant approval behind it. NCYT has first mover advantage and both government and private contracts. These are very different situations. You can build momentum and take up a major share of the market, or you can come in late and struggle to pick up scraps.
Facebook and eBay have all had platforms emerge with better ideas but the traction wasn't there for example.
@Jet I've always assumed that it would be airborne too. I think it's one of those things where to prove it and come out and form policy around it is just too much of a burden. It would break countries.
Reckon they'll only reverse position on that if the evidence becomes undeniable and the risks too great. Much easier for them to change track on that after the pandemic is dealt with, where they don't need to worry about policy implications.