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Bloomberg: How do you see the pandemic advancing before a vaccine potentially is available?
Stohr: The epidemiological behavior of this virus will not be that much different from other respiratory diseases. During winter, they come back.
There will be another wave, and it will be very serious. More than 90% of the population is susceptible. If we do not tighten again to a serious lockdown or similar measures, the virus is going to cause a significant outbreak. Winter is coming before the vaccine. There will be an increase in cases, and there will be problems containing it because people seem not very amenable to more constraints in their movement and freedom.
“It’s not the vaccine that’s going to end the pandemic. The virus will end this pandemic by burning every piece of dry wood it will find”
Bloomberg: When do you predict vaccines may arrive?
Stohr: Countries like Germany may have a significant amount of vaccine by the beginning of next year and a rollout that may take four, five, six months for the elderly. The strategy may be different for a country like Brazil, Argentina or Chile, which may never get a single dose of a vaccine and still has to cope.
The world will be divided into two groups, those with vaccines and those with no vaccines.
Bloomberg: How do you see worldwide immunity ramping up as vaccines are introduced and the disease spreads?
Stohr: I would assume that by the middle of next year a significant portion of the world will have antibodies. That will increase gradually over time. Then there will be a third wave, and when that is over, I would think that 80% of the world may have antibodies if lockdowns are not instituted, which I doubt.
Bloomberg: What does that mean for vaccines under development?
Stohr: We’re in a big, big quandary. We have to throw all the resources we can afford toward the development of a vaccine. On the other hand, I believe common sense tells us vaccines will not be available for the majority of the world.
There may be, by the end of this year or beginning of next year, a half a billion doses available. The world population is 7.5 billion. Particularly in those countries which have insufficient infrastructure and struggle with their health-care systems and have huge populations, what vaccine are they going to have?
Bloomberg: A number of groups, including the WHO, are focusing on equitable access. Won’t that help tackle those concerns?
Stohr: It would be irresponsible not to do anything. Nevertheless, the majority of the world population will not receive a vaccine. The virus will continue to spread, and it could take two to three years before the virus has affected a large majority of the population.
It’s not the vaccine that’s going to end the pandemic. The virus will end this pandemic by burning every piece of dry wood it will find. The fire will not go out before the last susceptible person has been affected.
Rest here:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/article
Bit of an 'if' this, because the government tends to make a mess of virtually anything they touch it seems now. But if they can start sending out millions of these free antibody tests as a second wave hits, we'll have previously unseen numbers of people testing positive:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jul/18/uk-plans-millions-of-coronavirus-antibody-tests-after-trial-success-report
Test positive for antibodies and you get sent to the NHS for an antigen test (I've seen first hand this week the internal process HR follows. (1. Send the positive case to self-isolate and get NHS antigen test. Send everyone else home. Clean area. Close office. Order deep clean. Return staff within 3-4 days. Repeat antibody testing.)
At the moment there's nurses going around doing these antibody tests in finance offices in the city, but numbers are quite small as most staff are WFH still. Much better of course if you had mobile vans going around doing antigen tests once a week at each office. Results by end of working day. But for now antibody testing is going to be a big boost for antigen sales numbers, just not yet, needs a few months to really kick off.
Yeah not genesig but did spot an interesting pair of Salomons!
Forget who asked earlier, but here's where the NCYT/PrimerDesign info emerged.
There was a saliva trial using their genesig platform between April and June:
https://twitter.com/VALLEYFLOYD/status/1282585637917425666
Closed last week at 267.50p, if we can close over that it'll be pretty good considering we had no news again aside from the Half Yearly which the market wasn't impressed with.
Fingers crossed. Just want a blue week, even it's just 0.5p for the chart to keep up-trending!
@ MIKODX No worries, will be my goto daily now, cheers!
@MIKODX Is there a way to use the map to see the change in infections over the previous day. Or is it just a case of checking postcodes manually very day?
Okay I see it now. NCYT shooting up while ODX tanking at the same time.
Dido Harris said at the presentation that the science isn't proven (in relation to antibody testing) and that the govt. has no plans to roll out antibody testing.
Picked that up from the noise over at the Omega board. Likely going to change where UK cash goes significantly.
Can't listen to the audio but from reading around it seems the govt's testing target is for antigen tests?
Did anyone listen to the presentation and know what was said specifically about that?
@Sneaky
No idea what current plans are, haven't had an update about that in over a month. Current thinking is based around this:
"Production capacity was increased in mid-April to a rate of four million kits a month, with a target of reaching eight million by mid-July by ramping up its own production in Southampton as well as signing manufacturing agreements with UK based firms BioPharma Process Services Limited and Biofortuna Limited."
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/shares/novacyt-new-contract-win-overshadowed-by-french-disappointment
Money's definitely coming back into Covid stocks, check out the Covid Index from 10th July. Steady daily increase.
https://ibb.co/7KsHCxm
Whole thing went bad once lockdowns eased, people panicked and took their cash out thinking it was all over around the 1st June. Mood definitely changing though.
https:// www.vox markets .co.uk/index/vox-covid-19/
Tons of news flow today:
Minks infected with Covid in Spain - possible human to animal transmission
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/17/spain-to-cull-nearly-100000-mink-in-coronavirus-outbreak
US greatest daily rise yet with 77k new cases
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/17/global-report-us-democrats-urged-to-skip-convention-as-covid-19-cases-surge
Boris to give 3 billion to NHS for second wave / conference today to set new high testing target
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53438486
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/thermo-fisher-raises-qiagen-bid-by-%241-bln-2020-07-16
Qiagen's share price is around £37 on NYSE, with half yearly net sales £650 mill.
Novacyt's looking to do about half of those net sales that in the next two quarters based on current info.
NCYT just needs to convince the market they are re-investing this cash into areas which can grow sales beyond Covid-19 in 2022 onwards. The general feel now is that covid testing is here for at least another 12 to 24 months regardless of a vaccine appearing or not.
@Johnny
There isn't news, that's the thing. We have a bubble on Twitter and forums where there looks like a ton of news flow, but it's all rumour.
NCYT's actual news
2 June - sales and new products
29th April - sales and govt. contract
Mid June they reiterated the news about the 3 new products as they'd launched them, but with no sales figures. Non-news basically.
The share price has gotten a kicking because the market has no clue what's going on with it. We're running on fumes. That said, it's doing great all things considered.
We desperately do need some news ASAP though, the market doesn't do anyone any favours and NCYT has a ton of great news it could announce, we know that.
Wonder how bad these tests are. The media will get their claws into it over the next week no doubt. Looks like the Paterson story isn't going away.
Recap:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/11/healthcare-firm-advised-by-owen-paterson-won-133m-coronavirus-testing-contract-unopposed
Nice spot!
LInk: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/update-on-randox-test-kits
Will try to get Simple's attention over the day. Anyone know if he posts on Twitter, could maybe DM him there?
What message group are you in where they saw the 'join the dots' response from Mullis yesterday?
Can you do some digging for us, see if there's can iota of truth to it?
There's a stack of it to come, but personally I want something this week to get the ball rolling. We're running on fumes here. It's testament to NCYT's strength that the share price has withstood this level without real news coming through for, well must be pushing into two months now.
Contracts extended. Who, and what are these worth?
Mobile testing details?
Primer Design global video series launch?
US contracts details?
Saliva test developments?
July sales?
Acquisition/Buy out interest?
Big Pharma partnerships?
OEM agreements?
R&D investment details?
New developments in general, must be a lot happening in the past couple of months. Time to break the radio silence guys.