The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Crazy share price but not unusual for AIM junior goldies. All we investors can do is keep our interest up choose proper gold miners (not spivs sitting on top of a heap of dirt) and wait until the tech madness passes. As long as companies such as SRB continue to manage their business well then eventually the price will correct. Of course eventually could be a long long time.
Also SRB still have to navigate the small local difficulty of converting the temporary license for Coringa into a proper production one before next year's deadline.
I wonder what the record is between announcing a sale and finally concluding it's time to knock it on the head. I'm guessing the investment bank conducting the sale process must be getting peed off since they vast majority of their earnings from this is conditional on a sale.
Seriously though tweeting stuff rather than announcing formally on an RNS is out of order...
Hmm Punter I take your point in general but I know from talking to him that HUM's Dan Betts might disagree with you about how easy it is to build and operate a gold mine!
Let's just say that they've been through an interesting learning curve...
Thanks for the posts guys - particularly bangrak. It puts into perspective the current valuation. I'm OK with my holding at current prices but clearly upwards potential is limited by P6E prices particularly rhodium.
On another note I've always used Investegate for RNS research and alerts but it's recently gone kaputt. The new guys are struggling to resurrect any sort of decent service. The RNS alert for SLP reached at 4pm yesterday. Not ideal.
Any recommendations for an alternative?
Can't why this hasn't been taken out by a PE predator. The majority of investments are semi liquid. Would be easy to make a quick buck
Typo - should have read projected AISIC. Who knows what the overall AISIC will be at the end of the life of mine....?
As BillyBoy has pointed out there are some chunky debts to pay off and no doubt the working capital has been squeezed to bugge"y. One false step such as placating an annoyed creditor or KOU not ramping up as planned could spell trouble.
Also YANI will not come to the rescue. The company have made it clear that the best grades at YANI have been mined out. Hence the project average AISICs of 1500.
I'm optimistic for the long term but wary about the short...
Eric comes on air and states in black and white that the Q3 results will be above market and management expectations.
Mr Market ain't listening since he's still in shock from the fallout of slippery fingers Odey's downfall.
Q3 results duly released and share price goes up ~ 10%
What ever happened to paying attention first time round? Buying on that first interview wasn't even front running. Just abject good sense!
Ok I've done a bit of trawling through AFVFN or whatever it's called. I hate that site even if it is richer in comments than this one!
Seems to me that Reza and big boss are not best mates any more. Questions. Were the protests spontaneous or organised by a government insider to further a bigger cause? Is BB or his acolytes now regretting giving AAZ new mining rights in exchange for swapping out rights to the gold mine and this is just the beginning of a sinister squeeze on the company just as they are at their most vulnerable financially - gearing up for new mines.
Or is it just a storm in a teacup?
I guess we'll have to wait to find out!
Where did you get your information of the political situation AAZ finds itself in? An internet search reveals nothing more than AAZ's RNS...
Yes I guess that what it's all about.
GLA!
If I may I'd like to come back.
None of the divisions stands out so I'm wondering whether anyone will bid for the company at its current valuation. Add to that that the complexity introduced by the JV with M&S will further put of suiters.
Yes you can point to EBIT but is is minimal both in total and within the divisions. 17m into a valuation of 5billion plus gives x300 approx. But thinking further EBITDA is not a sustainable number. Depreciation is there for a reason physical kit no matter how wizzy consists of stuff that wears and breaks down hence expenditure on tangible assets amounting to hundreds of millions each 6 months. Also don't ignore amortisation. Companies who believe their IP or other intangible assets are appreciating not depreciating have to convince their auditors that this is indeed the case. If they book a reduction - amortisation - that's because their auditor thinks this is the case and the amount posted in the a/cs will inevitably be the minimum the company can persuade the auditors to accept. Balance sheets do matter since they give the investor some idea of the residual worth of the company if it ceased trading today. Right now the answer would be very little - certainly much less can the current market value.
I'm not trying to wind people up with the post I'm genuinely trying to understand how much of the MV relates to the underlying financials of the company and how much relates to collective future expectations. I'm pretty sure is ~ 100% on the latter...
First let me make it clear that I have no holding in OCDO long or short nor do I intend to. But I am fascinated by the share price movement in relation to the half year results.
I'm an old fashioned sort of person who likes to look at the numbers and decide from there. I tend to ignore what I consider to be flim flam and also most of the adjusted/headline/underlying tables concocted by management.
What I see is an old fashioned sort of business (yes Ocado did not invent home delivery) whose technology is mature (ie.e. scope for taking improvements are incremental at best) and who have yet to turn a profit in the conventional sense.
As far as the latest results are concerned some highlights - revenue down in real terms, Loss up by circa 30%. Cash outflow of 25% of the b/f figure (implying that the company will run out of cash in 18 months time) never mind borrowings are 80% higher than closing cash.
All I can see is that this company has no future so please enlighten me - where am I gong wrong?
He was briefly at Hummingbird in the same role before disappearing. Not sure why though...
At the start of today's trading THS was valued at around $240m. They had net cash of $140 thus the entire business shorn of cash was only worth $100m.
I think Mr Market is somewhat pessimistic about this company and yet quarter on quarter the results defy that pessimism.
Something has to give...
Still need the license though....
Finally got to listen to the webinar. In general quite happy with it. Phoevos answered some tough questions in what I regarded as a straight manner. Yes the Vulcan plant is not performing to nameplate and looks like it never will. However, he believes there is still scope for improvement mainly because the ore feed introduced up the line into the 2 main plants is not optimal. So I think the news is not all bad on that front since getting grade control back to the original ore feed should be eminently doable.
I also found it interesting that supply from competitor mines could easily shrink as they have more severe problems in getting their ore to market than Tharisa. Thus prices of P6 and chrome could easily hold up even as demand stagnates.
Absolutely undervalued on all normal metrics in my opinion but these are not normal times.
We've been shafted. They are basically sitting on their backsides (apart from the odd bad tempered foray to converse with the hoi peloi ) and paying themselves handsomely to do so.
You might say daylight robbery, I couldn't possibly comment
Excellent thanks - it works. I come back to you with a comment..
Thanks Mike I found the Share Soc site and signed up but don't seem to be able to access the webinar (full members only?). I'm mainly interested in what you say about the Vulcan plant. Sounds like it's a dud from an investment prospective. shame the company hasn't been more forthcoming...