Member Info for Cnutgoestheeasal

Getting CIG to pay 11.26p or anything near it is a fantasy. They could simply let the company go bust. God knows it's been technically insolvent for a long time now. I can't off the top of my head remember how their loans are structured but being the longest and most consistent lender I'm sure they are senior creditor. They can pick up the assets from the company for zero after writing off their debt and general trade creditors and shareholders will be left with zilch.

For CIG it would clearly be a messier process with mining/drilling being interrupted so no doubt they've calculated that getting a majority share holding will be worth the extra cost.

Paying 11+ p per share wouldn't be worth the candle for them.

They have a lot on their plate at the moment and apart from some RC drilling and installing some workers haven't made much progress since we were briefed in the AGM. Also given the tailings dam is currently at capacity given recent history and the fact the dam is upstream of the plant they will want to proceed very carefully with this. On the other side the government are keen to get the plant running again so they are going to have to manage this very carefully.

And I'm not missing that even if it's in Timbuktu!

Sorry I'm being a bit thick here but how will you get Coris to buy the shares. Have they or have they not committed to buy every share tendered to them by shareholders?

What has happened is NOT robbery. It's just another mechanism by which you convince yourselves that your investment judgement was sound and that nefarious goings on have robbed you of a just reward.

*ollocks! We all judged the situation and took a punt. The same goes for all the companies various creditors (feel a bit of pity for the unsecured trade creditors). So far everybody has lost out. Yes - even Dan and the rest of the Board who let's face it won't be top of anybody's recruitment list.

For my part I knew that they weren't the best miners in the world but they were good at financial manoeuvring to acquire good assets. The tragedy is that eventually mining incompetence overwhelmed dealing acuity even with the help of a massive gold bull run. I regularly attended AGMs and didn't feel the Board held anything back.

However, I realised it was all up after the terrible Q2 results in July. I bailed out took the substantial loss and waited for the inevitable. End of story

Well not quite. I kept a very small holding and will attend the AGM to see if I can learn anything that might better inform my decision making in the future.

Given the history of dubious timings of RNSs I wonder whether the timing of this one - close of play but also COP the day of the US election was merely coincidental...?

Well it didn't go unnoticed for long!

Will the financial press pick up? I rather think not - it's all about Trump not Betts

Hmm more money down the drain methinks...

Given the stats.

We can't say we weren't warned!

Darientaylor I must confess this has been at the back of my mind since pretty much at the beginning. I was also a big shareholder of SHG and have seen how it can be done.

However, I'm wracking my brains as to how Jim is going about it. In SHG's case there was the strange incidence of the CEO who was going but never went. The CEO was singing the praises of the company and it's wondrous prospects until he abruptly turned 180 degrees and without so much of a by your leave starting dumping on it and saying it was doomed unless a white knight appeared. Then amazingly a white knight appeared in the shape of a trio of Patel's with murky dealings with the government and then suddenly as if on cue a whole bevy of rag articles appeared (possibly paid for?) expressing delight at the coming of the company's saviours. The whole thing was a farce but it worked. SHG went for a scandalously low price but nevertheless 80% higher than it had been in the dark days of Odey being a forced seller.

And yet none of the above or anything remotely like it has happened with CNR.

So if Jim is going to steal the company from under us. What are his possible methods?

I haven't a clue, any ideas?

I'm used to thinking outside the box for investing. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't!

But Condor is another thing altogether!

I recall Dictum... doing some intricate calculations as to the likely price right at the beginning we were all quite enthusiastic or to misquote Wordsworth "Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive" and reasonably telling us to be patient.

Now I note (along with the rest of us) a certain exasperation and calculations a lot more finger in the air.

And yet and yet - gold is going up, DCFs are going up corporate activity is going up logic tells you the market price is going up BUT the share price languishes and the Delphic utterances of MC are as meaningless as ever.

It's becoming more and more alice through the looking glass.

Ridiculous.

PS If Trump gets in (not my preference) he might ease sanctions which might give negotiations a jolt. Maybe that's what the negotiations are waiting for...

I opportunistically bought at around 62-63 on the recent fatality. Bad form I know but when the share price went up I stuck and was tempted to buy again at 72-3ish but I have far far to many of SRB already!

Anyway I'm with Pedro on this one. I certainly wouldn't sit out the next 1-2 weeks when Q3 results are out. Barring any bad news the company hasn't told us about they should be very interesting given the ~£50m valuation and the prospect of meaningful increases in production to come.

Let's see if Mr Market responds to this realistic prospect. I don't normally make predictions on price but I can see the share price re-rating to above 100p on a consistent basis

I've been in this for some time and had one to ones with Mark plus AGM attendances too so I'm basing my view of his latest on these.

Also for full disclosure I've recently bought some more at 31p so obviously I'd rather not see the price tank:

- he provided more information on what was going on than previously. He mentioned that he'd had a non-binding bid from a Chinese buyers "only last night" and that it was the highest yet. You wouldn't have got that 6 months ago.

- he's given up talking to small investors at roadshows but instead is concentrating on talking to anyone and everyone who is connected with digging the stuff out of the ground. Sensible - I never understood why he'd waste time presenting to small investors. Perhaps he was filling in time, looking busy as enquiries were thin on the ground at that point.

- he and Jim are clearly getting embarrassed about how long this is all taking and made repeated references to it and also to shareholder frustration. Whether this pushes Jim to agree sooner rather than later - who knows?

- not surprised that they have updated the original feasibility figures to reflect current gold prices. However, I'm not sure whether they've adjusted ASICs too. They need to since the original figures are now fantasy.

- and finally along with others on this Board, if under some of the scenarios the payback is only 6 months, why on earth don't be take the risk and build a ruddy mine. Or perhaps deep down they don't believe in their own hype.

Hmm!

A number on this board have asked the reasonable question which is - if this company is essentially worthless why has the share price not trended to zero. Well implicit in that question is the assumption that the market in HUM shares is efficient. That is to share all the relevant information on the company is out to the market and that investors are both able to understand it and thus make rational judgements off the back off it.

Whilst I used to believe markets were pretty efficient I no longer believe that to be the case based on my investing experience. With specialist AIM stocks such as HUM triply so!

First all the information is not out at the market. The obviously tough meetings that the HUM Board have had with their various creditors are closed to us. Now that the company is in the hands of the creditors who do not have to inform us shareholders of anything we haven't a clue as to what they are thinking. Also because we don't know them we don't know whether they are any more competent at turning the company round or how good they are at finding and picking people who are!

Next to the assimilation of the data. As far as I was concerned the Q2 figures were the final straw. I've been to a number of AGMS and other meetings and got to know the board reasonably well. It is clear to me that they are basically honest good at city type wheeler dealering but incompetent at mining. Not everybody has been able to attend as many meetings and thus had the exposure to the Board that I've been able to get.

I've been in bad situations before and learnt the value overcoming loss aversion. Not everybody has. I've been in situations where the company has been captured by creditors and the inevitable process that follows. Not everybody has.

And finally even allowing for the above there is still room for a tiny bit of optimism so thoughtful investors like RitiredBanker are not necessarily wrong when they are still holding out. I just happen to disagree with them on the available information out there.

For those still suffering from loss aversion I'm afraid you are likely to be disappointed as events unfold. And as events unfold so will be share price inevitably trend towards zero. If you don't believe me look up Horizonte. It was clear for weeks that the company was bust and the big boys were coming in for the still and yet the share price still implied residential value. Wrong as it turned out. Horizonte is no more.

Next HUM?

The disastrous Q2 figures were released, the company is now effectively in the hands of its creditors NOT shareholders. We are now just roadkill as the creditors thrash out a path to recovering the vast amounts of money lent to the company.

Shareholders need to be coldly realistic that their best interests are not exactly at the front of mind of the creditors.

As other posters have made clear this situation will not be turned around in a hurry if it is turned around at all.

Resist the urge to jump in today because you'll just be left twisting in the wind as the inevitable string of bad news continues and the creditors make their moves in the background.

I'm guessing things will become clearer in the new year by which time we'll have a new FD and Dan will have evolved from exec Chair to non-exec chair to transition sometime consultant.

GLA!

We'll probably hear more once the Q3 production update is out. Hopefully, in around 3 weeks....

To put the license debate somewhat to bed. I asked this question about the lack of progress on the full license and the response was as follows. First the relevant ministry (I think the mining one) offered the company a 3 year extension because of the slow progress each year. Secondly they were happy to double (I think) the amount that can be mined. Thirdly the ore sorter will double the amount of gold that is effectively sent to Palito by road. Fourthly the company has been offered trail extensions since the year dot and if necessary see no reason why another trial extension would not be offered in 3 years. In short the Board where quite happy with the current situation and a full license whenever it came would make no practical difference to the company's near to medium term prospects. They'll only need the full license when it comes to putting a full plant on site a Coringa and they don't plan for that to happen in the next 3-4 years.

Yes it's going to be a bit embarrassing for the company with £50m valuation and a projected cash pile of more than a third of that with more being added each month. Really they have two options with it. Invest in new prospects or pay dividends. I think the latter would be preferable. It's time to reward investing who have been patient and surely investing too much at the top of the cycle smacks of value destruction

Looking back at your original post (the 11:55 one),no you're right I can't read the word volatility.

Maybe because it's not there!

Now that makes sense!

Err what? Astrology would make sense that load of Bollinger banded gibberish