Member Info for Cnutgoestheeasal

As BillyBoy has pointed out there are some chunky debts to pay off and no doubt the working capital has been squeezed to bugge"y. One false step such as placating an annoyed creditor or KOU not ramping up as planned could spell trouble.

Also YANI will not come to the rescue. The company have made it clear that the best grades at YANI have been mined out. Hence the project average AISICs of 1500.

I'm optimistic for the long term but wary about the short...

Eric comes on air and states in black and white that the Q3 results will be above market and management expectations.

Mr Market ain't listening since he's still in shock from the fallout of slippery fingers Odey's downfall.

Q3 results duly released and share price goes up ~ 10%

What ever happened to paying attention first time round? Buying on that first interview wasn't even front running. Just abject good sense!

Ok I've done a bit of trawling through AFVFN or whatever it's called. I hate that site even if it is richer in comments than this one!

Seems to me that Reza and big boss are not best mates any more. Questions. Were the protests spontaneous or organised by a government insider to further a bigger cause? Is BB or his acolytes now regretting giving AAZ new mining rights in exchange for swapping out rights to the gold mine and this is just the beginning of a sinister squeeze on the company just as they are at their most vulnerable financially - gearing up for new mines.

Or is it just a storm in a teacup?

I guess we'll have to wait to find out!

Where did you get your information of the political situation AAZ finds itself in? An internet search reveals nothing more than AAZ's RNS...

Yes I guess that what it's all about.

GLA!

If I may I'd like to come back.

None of the divisions stands out so I'm wondering whether anyone will bid for the company at its current valuation. Add to that that the complexity introduced by the JV with M&S will further put of suiters.

Yes you can point to EBIT but is is minimal both in total and within the divisions. 17m into a valuation of 5billion plus gives x300 approx. But thinking further EBITDA is not a sustainable number. Depreciation is there for a reason physical kit no matter how wizzy consists of stuff that wears and breaks down hence expenditure on tangible assets amounting to hundreds of millions each 6 months. Also don't ignore amortisation. Companies who believe their IP or other intangible assets are appreciating not depreciating have to convince their auditors that this is indeed the case. If they book a reduction - amortisation - that's because their auditor thinks this is the case and the amount posted in the a/cs will inevitably be the minimum the company can persuade the auditors to accept. Balance sheets do matter since they give the investor some idea of the residual worth of the company if it ceased trading today. Right now the answer would be very little - certainly much less can the current market value.

I'm not trying to wind people up with the post I'm genuinely trying to understand how much of the MV relates to the underlying financials of the company and how much relates to collective future expectations. I'm pretty sure is ~ 100% on the latter...

First let me make it clear that I have no holding in OCDO long or short nor do I intend to. But I am fascinated by the share price movement in relation to the half year results.

I'm an old fashioned sort of person who likes to look at the numbers and decide from there. I tend to ignore what I consider to be flim flam and also most of the adjusted/headline/underlying tables concocted by management.

What I see is an old fashioned sort of business (yes Ocado did not invent home delivery) whose technology is mature (ie.e. scope for taking improvements are incremental at best) and who have yet to turn a profit in the conventional sense.

As far as the latest results are concerned some highlights - revenue down in real terms, Loss up by circa 30%. Cash outflow of 25% of the b/f figure (implying that the company will run out of cash in 18 months time) never mind borrowings are 80% higher than closing cash.

All I can see is that this company has no future so please enlighten me - where am I gong wrong?

He was briefly at Hummingbird in the same role before disappearing. Not sure why though...

At the start of today's trading THS was valued at around $240m. They had net cash of $140 thus the entire business shorn of cash was only worth $100m.

I think Mr Market is somewhat pessimistic about this company and yet quarter on quarter the results defy that pessimism.

Something has to give...

Still need the license though....

Finally got to listen to the webinar. In general quite happy with it. Phoevos answered some tough questions in what I regarded as a straight manner. Yes the Vulcan plant is not performing to nameplate and looks like it never will. However, he believes there is still scope for improvement mainly because the ore feed introduced up the line into the 2 main plants is not optimal. So I think the news is not all bad on that front since getting grade control back to the original ore feed should be eminently doable.

I also found it interesting that supply from competitor mines could easily shrink as they have more severe problems in getting their ore to market than Tharisa. Thus prices of P6 and chrome could easily hold up even as demand stagnates.

Absolutely undervalued on all normal metrics in my opinion but these are not normal times.

We've been shafted. They are basically sitting on their backsides (apart from the odd bad tempered foray to converse with the hoi peloi ) and paying themselves handsomely to do so.

You might say daylight robbery, I couldn't possibly comment

Excellent thanks - it works. I come back to you with a comment..

Thanks Mike I found the Share Soc site and signed up but don't seem to be able to access the webinar (full members only?). I'm mainly interested in what you say about the Vulcan plant. Sounds like it's a dud from an investment prospective. shame the company hasn't been more forthcoming...

Interesting debat - Sotolo you mentioned Phoevos's latest presentation I've looked on the website and around generally and can't seem to find it. Could you point me in the right direction please?

No explanation in the RNS appears to be required. Shows the contempt in which we little people are held

Ah that reminds me. When I asked about current cash burn he got the most agitated and told me to look for myself in the accounts.

Hmmmm -31 Dec anyone?

I managed to get to the event albeit rather late. I tried to ask a question but was cut off. As I was reminded by the organisers I was late so fair does I shut up. Mark was up first (funny I thought he was later..). Anyway he stayed for the next presentation and before he beetled off was kind enough to allow me to ask a few questions one to one outside the main hall. However, to be honest the answers didn't really add to my stock of knowledge.

Firstly I was reminded again I was late.

Secondly, whenever I tried to push him off his already well worn statements uttered in all the videos I've seen he got quite tetchy and accused me of being unpolite (although I'm not sure I've reached the exulted heights of Slimshady yet!)

Thirdly, it's all very complicated and fluid with some new enquires coming in whilst some who have signed NDAs have left the process.

He couldn't wait to get away. Not a particularly encouraging sight I must say..

Yes I'm attending too - assuming Jim shows...

Yes - it's a bit early but planning to make it too...